Jared Trok, Stanford University, Earth System Science, Stanford, CA, United States, Elizabeth Barnes, Boston University, Computing and Data Sciences, Earth and Environment, Boston, United States, Emily M Gordon, Stanford University, Earth System Science, Stanford, United States, Frances V Davenport, Colorado State University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Fort Collins, United States, Daniel L Swain, University of California Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Davis, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States and Noah S Diffenbaugh, Stanford University, Earth System Science and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford, United States