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Session Proposal: Numerical Modeling, Data Assimilation (DA), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Research to Operations (R2O) for Better Analyses and Forecasts of High-impact Weather Events (AGU25)

A084
Numerical Modeling, Data Assimilation (DA), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Research to Operations (R2O) for Better Analyses and Forecasts of High-impact Weather Events

Session ID#: 246807

Session Description:
High-impact weather events, such as extreme rainfall, severe storms, damaging winds, landfalling atmospheric rivers, hurricanes/typhoons, wildfires, heatwaves, and droughts, have significant impacts on our society and daily life. Atmospheric modeling, data assimilation, artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML), and Research to Operations (R2O) play a crucial role in enhancing forecasts for these events. This session will focus on recent research and advancements in atmospheric modeling, data assimilation, artificial intelligence, and R2O aimed at improving analyses and forecasts for high-impact weather events, including those intended for operational and impact-oriented applications. We encourage submissions that explore various topics, such as the development and enhancement of model physics, advancements in data assimilation algorithms and systems, observational impact studies, ensemble forecasting and predictability, R2O activities, forecast verification, synergies between AI and DA (AI4DA), synergies between AI and modeling (AI4NWP), and other relevant studies.
Index Terms:

0320 Cloud physics and chemistry [ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE]
1942 Machine learning [INFORMATICS]
3315 Data assimilation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3399 General or miscellaneous [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
Primary Convener:  Guoqing Ge, CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, United States
Conveners:  Minghua Zheng, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, United States, Haiqin Li, CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, United States and Anders Jensen, NOAA/GSL, Boulder, United States
 
RIKEN’s activities to integrate data assimilation and AI/ML (1856720)
Takemasa Miyoshi1, Shigenori Otsuka2, Jianyu Liang2, Michael Goodliff2, Yuta Tarumi2, Said Ouala3, Pierre Tandeo3 and Gwendal Saliou3, (1)RIKEN, Wako, Japan, (2)RIKEN, Kobe, Japan, (3)IMT Atlantique, Brest, France
 
Evaluating MPAS-A and WRF Forecasts of Severe Thunderstorms Over Bangladesh (1867688)
Khan Md Golam Rabbani, Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia, Dhaka, Bangladesh
 
On the Land Surface Model Contribution to the Bias in the UFS prediction of CAPE over the CONUS (1881218)
Jian-Wen Bao, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States, Sara A. Michelson, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Weizhong Zheng, Lynker at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States and Evelyn D. Grell, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States
 
A pilot study of improving the aerosol representation in NOAA’s RRFSv2 numerical weather prediction model with the MPAS dynamical core (1881980)
Haiqin Li1, Ravan Ahmadov2, Anders Jensen3, Jordan Schnell4, Joseph Olson2, Man Zhang5 and Clark Evans3, (1)CU/CIRES and NOAA/GSL, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (3)NOAA/GSL, Boulder, United States, (4)CIRES/CU, Boulder, United States, (5)NOAA, Global Systems Laboratory, University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, United States
 
Assimilation of dual Multi-Parameter Phased Array Radar Observations within a real-time numerical weather prediction system using 1000-member ensemble and 30-second update (1888824)
James Taylor1, Shigenori Otsuka2, Arata Amemiya3, Yuta Tarumi2, Takemasa Miyoshi3, Shinsuke Satoh4, Seiji Kawamura5, Hiroshi Hanado4 and Yoshiyuki Kawatani6, (1)RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Sciences, Kobe, Japan, (2)RIKEN, Kobe, Japan, (3)RIKEN Center for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan, (4)National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Koganei, Japan, (5)NICT, Tokyo, Japan, (6)Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
 
Cycling MPAS+JEDI developments for the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) v2 and the prototype Atmospheric River Prediction System (ARPS) (1899977)
Guoqing Ge1, Ming Hu2, Shun Liu3, Chunhua Zhou4, Junjun Hu4, Sijie Pan4, Haodao Lin2, David Dowell5, Ting Lei6, Samuel Degelia6, Xiaoyan Zhang7, Donald Lippi8, Masanori Oigawa9, Samuel Trahan10, Hui Liu6, Jeff Beck11 and Therese Thompson Ladwig2, (1)CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, United States, (2)NOAA/GSL, Boulder, United States, (3)NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States, (4)CIRES/NOAA GSL, Boulder, United States, (5)NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, United States, (6)Lynker@NOAA NWS NCEP EMC, College Park, United States, (7)SAIC@NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States, (8)Lynker@NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States, (9)JMA and EMC Visitor, College Park, United States, (10)NOAA, OAR/GSL, Boulder, United States, (11)NOAA Global System Laboratory, Boulder, United States
 
Atmospheric River Reconnaissance: Mission Planning, Execution, and Incorporation of Operational and Science Objectives (1901317)
Minghua Zheng1, F Martin Ralph1, Vijay Tallapragada2, Anna Wilson1, Samuel Babbitt1, Samuel Bartlett3, Bing Cao4, Luca Raffaele Centurioni4, Jason M Cordeira5, Christopher A Davis6, Luca Delle Monache1, James D Doyle7, Travis Elless8, Steve Feuer9, Jennifer S Haase4, Nikki Hathaway10, Todd Hutchinson11, Paul Iniguez12, Brian Kawzenuk1, Ellen Knappe4, David Lavers13, Ashley Lundry10, Allison C. Michaelis14, Florian Pappenberger15, Carolyn A. Reynolds7, Ryan Rickert16, Shawn Roj3, Jonathan Rutz1, Aneesh Subramanian17, Ryan Torn18, Jia Wang1, Keqin Wu19, Xingren Wu20 and AR Recon Operational Team, (1)Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, United States, (2)NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States, (3)Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, (4)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, United States, (5)Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, Plymouth, United States, (6)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (7)U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, United States, (8)Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), NOAA, College Park, United States, (9)NHC, The Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, All Hurricanes (CARCAH) / 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, NOAA, Miami, United States, (10)NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center (AOC), Office of Marine and Aviation Operations, Lakeland, United States, (11)WindBorne Systems, Palo Alto, United States, (12)Lynker at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/WPC, College Park, United States, (13)European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom, (14)Northern Illinois University, Department of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, DeKalb, United States, (15)European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom, (16)53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, Air Force Reserve Command, Biloxi, United States, (17)University of Colorado Boulder, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, La Jolla, United States, (18)University at Albany, State University of New York, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, NY, United States, (19)The Northern Gulf Institute at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States, (20)Axiom Consultants, Inc., Rockville at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Crofton, United States
 
Improvement of Short-Range Prediction System and Weather Analysis Using Observation-Based Hydrometeor Adjustment (1905444)
Yoona Kim, Kongju National University, Gongju, Korea, Republic of (South) and Eun-Chul Chang, Kongju National University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Gongju, South Korea
 
The Impact of Implicit-Explicit Vertical Advection Schemes on Operational Weather Forecasting of KMA: A Summer-Period Study with the Regional Prediction System by the KMA (1906953)
Joonsung Park1, Sang-Hun Park2, Uju Shin2, Eunhee Lee3, Jeongsoon Lee4,5 and Sehyun Lee1, (1)Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea, (3)KIGAM Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Groundwater Enivironment Research Center, Daejeon, South Korea, (4)National Institute of Meteorological Science, Numerical Data Application Division, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (5)KMA Korea Meteorlogical Administration, Seoul, South Korea
 
GraphTrack Real-time experiment (1911873)
Hua Leighton, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States, Xuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, United States, Lin Zhu, National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, United States, Zhan Zhang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States and GraphTrack
 
Implicit Learning of Surface Physics in Data Driven Models: An Evaluation Using 2-m Temperature (1920838)
Darri Stuber1, Clark Evans1, Daniel Abdi2 and Isidora Jankov1, (1)NOAA/Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (2)CIRES/NOAA, Boulder, United States
 
Evaluating the Impact of SMAP Soil Moisture Spatial Resolution on Land Assimilation Efficiency and Atmospheric Response (1929425)
Eunkyu Kim, KIAPS Korea Insititute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), Yonghwan Kwon, KIAPS (Korea Insititute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems), Seoul, South Korea, Sanghee Jun, KIAPS Korea Insititute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, South Korea, Kyung-Hee Seol, KIAPS Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Diagnosis & Evaluation Team, Seoul, South Korea, In-Hyuk Kwon, KIAPS Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, DA group, Seoul, South Korea, Youngsu Lee, KIAPS Korea Insititute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Model System Team / OS Group, Seoul, South Korea and Hyunglok Kim, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST), School of Environment and Energy Engineering, Gwangju, South Korea
 
Improved Atmospheric River Forecasts through JEDI Assimilation of Satellite Transformed Retrievals in MPAS (1929521)
Katerina Giamalaki1, Steven Businger1, Paolo Antonelli2 and Frederike Monte1, (1)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Atmospheric Sciences, Honolulu, United States, (2)AdaptiveMeteo, Rome, Italy
 
Impact of Enhanced CO2 Variability on Numerical Forecasting Models (1932853)
Dae-Hyun Sun, KIAPS Korea Insititute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Diagnosis & Evaluation Team, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), Kyung-Hee Seol, KIAPS Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Diagnosis & Evaluation Team, Seoul, South Korea and Rae-Seol Park, KIAPS Korea Insititute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, South Korea
 
Ensemble-Based Background Error Diagnostics for Improving KIM Hybrid Data Assimilation (1935092)
Seo-Ha Park1, Hyo-Jong Song2, Young-Soon Jo3 and Ji-Hyun Ha3, (1)Myongji University, Yongin-si, Gyeonggi-do, SOUTH KOREA, (2)Myongji University, Dept. of Environmental Engineering and Energy, Seoul, South Korea, (3)Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Daejeon, South Korea
 
Enhancing Forecasts of Atmospheric River Related Precipitation at Multiple Lead Times Using Data Assimilation (1937938)
Jia Wang1, David Lavers2, Luca Delle Monache3, Bruce Ingleby4, Minghua Zheng3, Xingren Wu5, F Martin Ralph3, Florian Pappenberger4, Jonathan Rutz3 and Julie Kalansky6, (1)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States, (2)European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom, (3)Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, United States, (4)European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom, (5)Axiom Consultants, Inc., Rockville at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Crofton, United States, (6)Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, San Diego, United States
 
Verification of the Global NWP Model Precipitation Prediction Skill using SEEPS score (1940793)
Sora Park, Seiyoung Park, Hyeja Park, Chae-Yeon Kang, Yeonji Gong and Jong-Chul Ha, KMA Korea Meteorological Administration, Daejeon, South Korea
 
All-sky assimilation of GIIRS infrared hyperspectral radiance in CMA-GFS using 4D-Var (1940798)
Senyi Kong, Zhejiang University, School of Earth Sciences, Hangzhou, China, Wei Han, Numerical Weather Prediction Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China and Lei Bi, School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China
 
A study on verification methods for high-resolution NWP models (1940802)
Chae-Yeon Kang, Seiyoung Park, Sora Park, Hyeja Park, Yeonji Gong and Jong-Chul Ha, KMA Korea Meteorological Administration, Daejeon, South Korea
 
AIDA: Operational AI Data Assimilation from Level 1 Observations (1979074)
Ryan Keisler, Andrew Bollinger, Gideon Dresdner, Alex Kleeman, Johannes Mohrmann and Daniel A Rothenberg, Brightband, San Francisco, United States
 
Advancing Atmospheric River Predictions with Reconnaissance and High-Resolution NWP: A Research and Operations Partnership Supported by Water in the West initiative (1986188)
Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States, F Martin Ralph, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, United States, David Novak, NOAA NWS NCEP Weather Prediction Center, College Park, United States, John Ten Hoeve, NOAA OAR Weather Program Office, Silver Spring, United States and Anna Maria Wilson, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States
 
Impacts of Assimilating Mode S EHS Aircraft Data from Portable Aircraft Derived Weather Observation Systems (PADWOSs) in the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) on forecasts of convective weather events in the Southeast United States (1989602)
Jason M English1,2, Michael McPartland3, Timothy Bonin3, Eric James4, David D Turner5 and Ming Hu6, (1)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)CIRES/NOAA, Boulder, United States, (3)MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, United States, (4)NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (5)National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (6)NOAA/GSL, Boulder, United States
 
NOAA NESDIS’s Dynamic Response to Evolving User Needs (1995759)
Claire McCaskill1, Jena Kent2 and Jose Garcia-Rivera2, (1)NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, Silver Spring, MD, United States, (2)NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, Silver Spring, United States
 
Creation of an Omniscale Next-generation Ensemble to Improve Power Sector Decision-making (1997612)
Timothy Ivancic, Rob Cirincione, Brent Ho, Olivia Pfeiffer and Eric Hewitt, Sunairio, Baltimore, United States
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