A041
Climate Forcing, Response, and Recovery in a State-Dependent System
Session ID#: 247189
Session Description:
Understanding climate response across different background states is critical for interpreting past climate changes, improving present-day projections, and assessing future risks. However, many existing frameworks were developed for small perturbations from the present-day climate and do not fully capture the nonlinear, state-dependent nature of climate forcing, response, and potential recovery.This session aims to bring together the paleoclimate, climate dynamics, and modeling communities to develop a holistic picture of how climate forcing, feedbacks, and large-scale circulation evolve under different climate states. We welcome studies addressing (1) the risk of extreme warming under continued CO₂ emissions, (2) the evolution of climate sensitivity across Earth’s history and implications for the future, (3) the reversibility of climate change and potential tipping points, and (4) the ability of climate models to represent state dependence. Contributions from theory, modeling, and paleoclimate perspectives are encouraged to advance our understanding of how climate response changes with background state.
Index Terms:
1620 Climate dynamics [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3310 Clouds and cloud feedbacks [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3344 Paleoclimatology [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
Primary Convener: Dr. Ivan Mitevski, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Conveners: Dr. Ivan Mitevski, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, Jiang Zhu, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States and Jonah Bloch-Johnson, National Centre for Atmospheric Research, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
A Strong Constraint on The State-dependent Radiative Forcing of Well-mixed Greenhouse Gases (Invited) (1855485)
Jing Feng, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, David Paynter, NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, Raymond Menzel, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States and Ryan J. Kramer, University of Miami, Miami, United States
Modelling tipping cascades:the interlinked evolution of the Amazon rainforest, ocean circulation and the Greenland ice sheet (1857047)
Laure Moinat1, Thomas Lucet2, Jérôme Kasparian1 and Maura Brunetti1, (1)Group of Applied Physics and Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland, (2)Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland, Geneva, Switzerland
Non-linear and distinct responses of temperature and precipitation to volcanic eruptions with stratospheric sulfur injection from 5 to 160 Tg (1873094)
Dana Raiter, Columbia University, New York, NY, UNITED STATES, Zachary McGraw, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States; Columbia University, Applied Mathematics & Applied Physics, New York, United States and Prof. Lorenzo M Polvani, PhD, Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, United States
Irreversibility of Extreme Precipitation Intensity in Global Monsoon Areas under Multiple Carbon Neutrality Scenarios (1889798)
Md Babul Miah1, Jong-Yeon Park2, Min-Uk Lee1, Woojin Jeon1, Young-Hwa Byun3, Hyun Min Sung3, Jin Gi Hong4, Md. Jalal Uddin5 and Sanjit Kumar Mondal6, (1)Jeonbuk National University, Department of Environment and Energy, Jeonju, South Korea, (2)Jeonbuk National University, Department of Environment and Energy, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Jeonju, South Korea, (3)National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Climate Change Research Team, Seogwipo, South Korea, (4)California State University, Department of Civil Engineering and Construction Engineering Management, Long Beach, CA, United States, (5)Khulna University of Engineering & Technology, Institute of Disaster Management, Khulna, Bangladesh, (6)Yonsei University, Irreversible Climate Change Research Center, Seoul, South Korea
State-dependence, Memory and Nonlinearity in Stochastic Climate Models. (1895523)
Nicholas Wynn Watkins, London School of Economics, London, United Kingdom; University of Warwick, Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, Coventry, United Kingdom and David Alan Stainforth, London School of Economics, Grantham Research Institute, London, United Kingdom
A Null Hypothesis for Earth’s Albedo in a Warming Climate (Invited) (1906672)
Daniel D.B. Koll, Peking University, Beijing, China, Zhiping Zhang, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland and Tim Cronin, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, United States
No Significant Weakening of East Asian Summer Extreme Precipitation Under Net-Zero CO2 Emissions (1941462)
Seungmok Paik1, Daehyun Kim2, Soon-Il An3, So-Eun Park3, Andrew King4, Seung-Ki Min5, Chao Liu2 and Jongsoo Shin6, (1)Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul, South Korea, (3)Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea, (4)University of Melbourne, School of Geography, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, Parkville, Australia, (5)Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, South Korea, (6)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, United States
Asymmetric Hydrological sensitivity between CO2 increase and decrease (1941473)
Ilai Guendelman, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Beer Sheva, Israel, Dr. Ivan Mitevski, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States and Gabriel Andres Vecchi, Princeton University, Department of Geosciences and The High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ, United States
Dynamical Mechanism of the Poleward Intensification of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies Induced by Sea Ice Change (1943013)
Hyeong-Gyu Kim1, Joowan Kim1, Sang-Yoon Jun2 and Seong-Joong Kim3, (1)Kongju National University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Gongju, South Korea, (2)Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon, South Korea, (3)Korea Polar Res Inst KORDI, Incheon, South Korea
Weaker Arctic Amplification during CO2 Removal from a Future Warmer State (1955261)
Khang Tran, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, Ivan Mitevski, Princeton University, Department of Geosciences, Princeton, United States, Tyler Paul Janoski, Rutgers University New Brunswick, New Brunswick, United States and Gabriel Andres Vecchi, Princeton University, Department of Geosciences and The High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ, United States
A Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Dataset for State-Dependent Climate Forcing, Feedbacks, and Extremes (1956081)
Jiang Zhu1, Bette L Otto-Bliesner1, Esther C Brady1, Trude Eidhammer2, Andrew Gettelman3, Ran Feng4 and Christina S McCluskey5, (1)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (4)University of Connecticut, Department of Earth Sciences, Storrs, United States, (5)University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
Runaway Cooling from Large Solar Reductions Modulated by Ocean Overturning Circulation and Heat Uptake (1956438)
Maya V Chung, Princeton University, Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and The High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ, United States, Wenchang Yang, Princeton University, Department of Geosciences, Princeton, NJ, United States and Gabriel Andres Vecchi, Princeton University, Department of Geosciences and The High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ, United States
Potential Arctic Climate Change Tipping Points under Zero Emission Commitment (1958584)
You-Ting Wu1, Anastasia Romanou2, Michael J Previdi3 and Prof. Lorenzo M Polvani, PhD1, (1)Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, United States, (2)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States, (3)Columbia University, Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States
State dependence and limits of precipitation change under warming (1963395)
David B Bonan, University of Washington, Seattle, United States, Tapio Schneider, California Institute of Technology, Environmental Science and Engineering, Pasadena, United States and Jiang Zhu, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
Constraining State-Dependent Climate Sensitivity Using Emergent Constraints Across Cenozoic Warm Intervals (1972793)
Mary Grace Albright1, Nils Weitzel2, Gordon N. Inglis3, Sebastian Steinig2, Martin Renoult4, Tammo Reichgelt1, Tamara Fletcher5, Julia Tindall6 and Ran Feng1, (1)University of Connecticut, Department of Earth Sciences, Storrs, United States, (2)University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom, (3)University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom, (4)Stockholm University, Geological Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden, (5)University of Adelaide, School of Physics, Chemistry and Earth Sciences, Adelaide, Australia, (6)University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, United Kingdom
Glacial-interglacial apparent Earth system sensitivity (1988243)
B. B. Cael, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, United States, Gavin L Foster, University of Southampton, School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, United Kingdom, Malte Jansen, University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, IL, United States, Matthew Osman, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United States and Jessica Tierney, University of Arizona, Department of Geosciences, Tucson, United States
Non-linear response to CO2 forcing in the GFDL CM4.0 model (2000874)
Sisam Shrestha, Princeton University, Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System, Princeton, United States, David Paynter, NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, Ryan J. Kramer, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States and Haozhe He, Princeton University, High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton, United States
