C041
Uncertainties in Glaciology: Observations, Processes, Models
Session ID#: 247995
Session Description:
A major challenge in glacier and ice sheet studies is to address uncertainties arising from observations, physical processes, and numerical models. These uncertainties are reflected in projections of, e.g. sea level rise and freshwater availability, and understanding them is essential for planning, mitigation, and policy-making. Observations are often limited by the remoteness of study areas, especially for subsurface processes that are difficult to observe directly. Process understanding is further complicated by the interplay of ice, ocean, atmosphere, and solid Earth, obscuring cause and effect at the individual-process scale. Numerical models help to bridge spatiotemporal gaps, but introduce their own uncertainties. This session provides a forum to discuss the quantification, reduction, and propagation of uncertainties across different areas of glaciology. We particularly welcome novel and exploratory approaches, including ensemble studies, Bayesian inference, and artificial intelligence. We also welcome interdisciplinary efforts to improve uncertainty characterization in the cryospheric sciences across all scales.
Index Terms:
0720 Glaciers [CRYOSPHERE]
0726 Ice sheets [CRYOSPHERE]
0798 Modeling [CRYOSPHERE]
3275 Uncertainty quantification [MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS]
Primary Convener: Matthias Scheiter, University of Tasmania, School for Natural Sciences (Physics), Hobart, TAS, Australia
Conveners: Emma Mackie, University of Florida, Geological Sciences, Gainesville, United States, Tian Li, University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom and Ralf Greve, Hokkaido University, Institute of Low Temperature Science, Sapporo, Japan
Mapping ice stream sensitivity in the Amundsen Sector to changes in ice velocity observations (1848635)
Beatriz Recinos Rivas, University of Edinburgh, School of GeoSciences, United Kingdom, Daniel Goldberg, School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom, Noel Gourmelen, University of Edinburgh, School of Geosciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom and James Roland Maddison, University of Edinburgh, School of Mathematics, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Uncertainties in Antarctic ice sheet projections: the role of model processes, external forcings, and observations (Invited) (1857748)
Helene L Seroussi, Dartmouth College, Thayer School of Engineering, Hanover, United States, Sophie Nowicki, University at Buffalo, Department of Earth Sciences, Buffalo, United States, Justine Caillet, Dartmouth College, Hanover, United States and ISMIP6 team
Uncertainty ranges for mass-conserving bedrock topography and relationships to subglacial conditions applied to the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (1886923)
Matthias Scheiter1, Anya M. Reading2, Tobias Staal3, María Manassero3 and Frank Pattyn4, (1)University of Tasmania, School for Natural Sciences (Physics), Hobart, TAS, Australia, (2)University of Tasmania, School of Natural Sciences (Physics), Hobart, TAS, Australia, (3)University of Tasmania, School of Natural Sciences (Physics), Hobart, Australia, (4)Université Libre de Bruxelles, Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Brussel, Belgium
Quantifying the uncertainty in projected mass loss of Antarctica to uncertain bed topography (1890902)
Danielle Mangini, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Earth, Geographic, and Climate Sciences, Amherst, United States, Prof. Mathieu Morlighem, Dartmouth College, Department of Earth Sciences, Hanover, NH, United States, Nicole Schlegel, NOAA, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States and Blake Castleman, Columbia University of New York, Department of Computer Science, Palisades, United States
A New Method to Statistically Combine Ice Sheet Mass Balance Estimates (1902077)
Anthony Ozerov, University of California Berkeley, Statistics, Berkeley, United States, Benjamin H Hills, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, United States and Fernando Perez, University of California Berkeley, Statistics, Berkeley, CA, United States
Probabilistic inference of subglacial topography with mass conservation (1911143)
Niya Shao, University of Florida, Department of Geological Sciences, Gainesville, United States, Emma Mackie, University of Florida, Geological Sciences, Gainesville, United States, Nicole Schlegel, NOAA, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States and Michael Field, University of Florida, Department of Geological Sciences, Gainesville, FL, United States
Basal Temperatures from Radar Sounding: New Inferences Across East Antarctica (1932758)
Eliza Dawson1, Michael Christoffersen1, Donglai Yang2, Leo Liu3 and Winnie Chu2, (1)Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, United States, (2)Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Atlanta, United States, (3)Emory University, Atlanta, GA, United States
Investigating Trends in Historical Mass Balance and Firn Air Content of World Glaciers and Uncertainty Due to Surface Forcing (1966139)
Nicole Jeanne Schlegel, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, Alex S Gardner, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States and Chad Greene, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, United States
On sources of uncertainty in ice-sheet model predictions of Antarctic Ice Sheet behavior (1973977)
Trevor Hillebrand1, Matthew J Hoffman1, Holly Kyeore Han2, Mauro Perego3, Alexander Hager1, Andrew Nolan4, Xylar Asay-Davis4, Stephen F Price4, Jerry Watkins5 and Max Carlson5, (1)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics, Los Alamos, NM, United States, (2)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, United States, (3)Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, United States, (4)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics, Los Alamos, United States, (5)Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, United States
Future Learning About Sea Level Contributions from the Amery Ice Shelf (1978585)
Zach Zerbe1, Sanket Jantre2, Nathan M Urban2 and Matthew J Hoffman3, (1)Colorado College, Colorado Springs, United States, (2)Brookhaven National Laboratory, Applied Mathematics Department, Computing and Data Sciences Directorate, Upton, United States, (3)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics, Los Alamos, NM, United States
Validation of Linear Response Models for Projecting Antarctic Ice‐Shelf Basal‐Melt Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise (1982544)
Corinne Fox1, Sanket Jantre2, Nathan M Urban2, Mira Berdahl3, Gunter R Leguy4 and Matthew J Hoffman5, (1)Grinnell College, Department of Mathematics, Grinnell, United States, (2)Brookhaven National Laboratory, Applied Mathematics Department, Computing and Data Sciences Directorate, Upton, United States, (3)University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (5)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics, Los Alamos, NM, United States
The effects of choice of transient calibration constraints on ice-loss predictions and model uncertainty: the case of Thwaites Glacier (1995244)
Daniel Goldberg, School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom, Prof. Mathieu Morlighem, Dartmouth College, Department of Earth Sciences, Hanover, NH, United States and Noel Gourmelen, University of Edinburgh, School of Geosciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
