A102
Tropical Cyclones: Observations, Modeling, and Predictability - Today and into the Future
Session ID#: 248070
Session Description:
Tropical cyclones are one of the most destructive weather systems on Earth and have significant social and economic impacts. In this session, we solicit abstracts on observational analysis and modeling studies that help to advance our understanding of the physics, dynamics, variability, and predictability of tropical cyclones. In particular, abstracts are encouraged on tropical cyclone formation, structure, track, intensity change, as well as the theory, physics, and projections of future tropical cyclone characteristics.
Co-Sponsor(s):
Index Terms:
3315 Data assimilation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3360 Remote sensing [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3372 Tropical cyclones [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
Primary Convener: Michael M Bell, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States
Conveners: Rosimar Rios-Berrios, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, United States and Robert F Rogers, Asia Pacific-Typhoon Collaborative Research Center, Shanghai, China
Category ‘6’ Tropical Cyclone Hot Spots in the Warming Climate (1852950)
I-I Lin1, Chun-Chieh Wu1, Yuqing Wang2, Chun-Chi Lien1 and Yating Chang1, (1)National Taiwan University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Taipei, Taiwan, (2)Univ Hawaii, International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI, United States
The Modulation of Upper Ocean Temperature Structure, Heat Content, and Ocean Currents by Hurricane Laura (2020) (1864241)
Senam Tsei1, Stephan Dixon Howden2, Arne R Diercks3, Karthik Balaguru4, Matthieu Le Hanaff5, Iam-Fei Pun6 and Mr. Kevin M Martin, MS3, (1)University of Southern Mississippi, Stennis Space Center, United States, (2)Univ of Southern Miss, Mandevile, United States, (3)The University of Southern Mississippi, Division of Marine Science, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (4)PNNL, Marine Sciences Laboratory, Seattle, United States, (5)University of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, United States, (6)National Central University, Graduate Institute of Hydrological and Oceanic Sciences, Taoyuan, Taiwan
Probing Seamless Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity with a Hybrid AI-Physics Climate Model (Invited) (1870696)
Gan Zhang, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, United States, Megha Rao, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, UNITED STATES, Janni Yuval, Google, Mountain View, United States and Ming Zhao, NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States
Atmospheric Circulation Constraints on Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity (1873296)
Megha Rao, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, UNITED STATES, Gan Zhang, University of Illinois, Urbana, United States and Kevin A Reed, Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, NY, United States
From Earth to Titan: Resolving Tropical Cyclones in Idealized Planetary Atmospheres (1874280)
David Moore, University of California Los Angeles, Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States and Jonathan Mitchell, University of California Los Angeles, Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences; Department of Earth, Planetary & Space Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Attributing Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity to Climate Change using a Hybrid Machine Learning General Circulation Model (1875869)
Sarah Henry, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, United States, Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, United States and Mingshi Yang, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, United States
Impact of Marine Heatwaves on the Tropical Cyclone Genesis (1877324)
Su Min Choi, Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South), Hyeong-Seog Kim, Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Ocean Science and Technology School, Busan, South Korea and Myung-Sook Park, Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology (KIOST), Korea Ocean Satellite Center, Busan, South Korea
Shifting hotspot of tropical cyclone clusters in a warming climate (1878336)
Zheng-Hang Fu1, Dazhi Xi2, Shang-Ping Xie3, Wen Zhou1, Ning Lin4, Jiuwei Zhao5, Xin Wang1 and Johnny Chung Leung Chan6, (1)Fudan University, Shanghai, China, (2)Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, United States, (3)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States, (4)Princeton University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, United States, (5)Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing, China, (6)Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center, Shanghai, China
The Impacts of a Scale-Aware 3D Turbulent Kinetic Energy (SA3DTKE) Scheme on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts (1879669)
Kwun Yip Fung, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies Miami, Miami, FL, United States, Ping Zhu, Florida International Univ, Miami, FL, United States, Xuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, United States, Jun Zhang, University of Miami, CIMAS, Miami, FL, United States; NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, United States, Chuan-Kai Wang, Redline Performance Solutions LLC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States and Bin Liu, Lynker at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States
Storylines of Near-term Change in Tropical Pacific Climate and Global Tropical Cyclones (1881345)
Yi Xia, Columbia University, New York, United States, Chia-Ying Lee, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, United States, Adam H Sobel, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, United States, Dr. Suzana J. Camargo, PhD, Columbia University, Columbia Climate School, New York, United States, Richard Seager, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States and Kevin Reed, Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, United States
Tropical Cyclones Tend to Track Parallel to the Southern Coast of China (1888272)
Linjiang Li1, Johnny Chung Leung Chan2, Guihua Wang3 and Yunxia Zheng1, (1)Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China, (2)Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center, Shanghai, China, (3)Fudan University, Shanghai, China
Using High-Wind Direct Covariance Air-Sea Heat Flux Observations to Understand Sea Spray Physics and Inform Tropical Cyclone Model Development for Current and Future Climates (1895458)
Benjamin Witten Barr1, Hyodae Seo2, James B Edson3, Cesar Sauvage4 and Carol Anne Clayson3, (1)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Department of Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole, United States, (2)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Oceanography, Honolulu, United States, (3)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, United States, (4)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, United States
Analysis of Forecast Characteristics of Midlatitude Upper-Level Troughs over the Western North Pacific Affecting Typhoon Tracks (1903199)
Eunjung Lee1, Daejoon KIM2, Kyungho Lee2, Siwoo Lee2 and KMA, (1)KMA Korea Meteorlogical Administration, National Typhoon Center, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)KMA Korea Meteorlogical Administration, National Typhoon Center, Seogwipo-si, South Korea
Tropical cyclone response to ambitious decarbonization scenarios (1907399)
Mincheol Moon, POSTECH Pohang University of Science, Pohang, South Korea, Seung-Ki Min, POSTECH, Pohang, Korea, Republic of (South), Jung-Eun Chu, City University of Hong Kong, School of Energy and Environment, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Soon-Il An, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea, Seok-Woo Son, Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul, South Korea, Hamish Ramsay, CSIRO, Aspendale, Australia and Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, United States
Observations and Modeling of Air–Sea Interactions During Hurricane Lee. (1915455)
Anna Williams, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, United States, Bia Villas Boas, Colorado School of Mines, Geophysics, Golden, United States, Martha Schonau, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, Elizabeth Sanabia, Applied Physics Laboratory University of Washington, Seattle, United States and Steven R Jayne, WHOI, Department of Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole, MA, United States
The Importance of Seed Types for Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the Eastern and Central Pacific (1917542)
Jose Ocegueda Sanchez, Purdue University, Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, IN, United States, Daniel Robert Chavas, Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, United States and Jane Wilson Baldwin, University of California, Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, United States
Do continents control how fast hurricane environments expand? Insights from idealized past and future worlds (1921781)
Aaron Kruskie, Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, IN, United States and Daniel Chavas, Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, United States
Historical and Future Tropical Cyclone Characteristics in the SPEAR Large Ensemble (1932134)
Wenchao Chu, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, United States, Jorge Garcia-Franco, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico, Suzana J. Camargo, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, Chia-Ying Lee, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, United States, Michael Tippett, Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, United States and Hiroyuki Murakami, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States
Surface and Subsurface Marine Heatwave Impacts on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensification (1934786)
Franco de Santiago Acero, Columbia University, Pacoima, California, UNITED STATES, Jennifer Nakamura, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, Mingfang Ting, Columbia Climate School, New York, United States and Suzana J. Camargo, Columbia University, Climate School, New York City, United States
What Drives Extremes in Active and Inactive Hurricane Seasons? (1944716)
Shuyi S Chen1, Alton Patrick Daley Jr2, Richard Zhuang2, Brandon W Kerns1, L. Ruby Leung3 and Karthik Balaguru4, (1)University of Washington, Atmospheric and Climate Science, Seattle, United States, (2)University of Washington Seattle Campus, Atmospheric and Climate Science, Seattle, United States, (3)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (4)PNNL, Marine Sciences Laboratory, Seattle, United States
Simple Fast Models to Predict the Complete Radial Structure and Size Evolution of the Tropical Cyclone Wind Field (1947858)
Daniel Robert Chavas, Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, United States, Dandan Tao, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, Robert Nystrom, Iowa State University, Ames, United States, Arthur Avenas, IFREMER, Plouzane, France and Danyang Wang, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States
A Sensitivity Study Of WRF Model Microphysics, Pbl, And Cumulus Parameterization Schemes For The Simulation Of Tropical Cyclones In The Bay Of Bengal Using In-Situ Observations (1950476)
Maisha Farzana Methila1, Mohan Kumar Das2, Fatima Akter1 and Md. Momin Islam1, (1)University of Dhaka, Department of Meteorology, Dhaka, Bangladesh, (2)National Oceanographic And Maritime Institute (NOAMI), Dhaka, Bangladesh
Combined Ground and Satellite data for Monitoring Cyclones and Changes in Ocean color in the Bay of Bengal (1952816)
Mohammad Mehdi, GD Goenka University, Gurgaon - Delhi NCR, India, Akshansha Chauhan, University iof New South Wales, Schools of Minerals and Energy Resource Engineering, Sydney, Australia and Ramesh Singh, Chapman University, Schmid College of Science and Technology, Environmental Science, Orange, United States
An analytical model for tropical cyclone size expansion on the sphere (1964346)
Danyang Wang, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States and Daniel Robert Chavas, Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, United States
Future Projection of Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity (1965436)
Chuan-Chieh Chang1, Zhuo Wang2, Ziyu Yan3, Ming Zhao4 and L. Ruby Leung1, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (2)University of Illinois, Urbana, United States, (3)School of Geo-Science and Technology, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China, (4)NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States
Improving Upper-Ocean Response Estimates to Tropical Cyclones via Lagrangian Data Assimilation of Surface Drifter (1982362)
Junjie Dong1, James Carton2, Luyu Sun3, Jacob O Wenegrat2 and Stephen G Penny4, (1)University of Maryland, Laurel, United States, (2)University of Maryland College Park, College Park, United States, (3)University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States, (4)Sofar Ocean, San Francisco, United States
Turbulence structure of the low-level hurricane eyewall from uncrewed aircraft observations (1982432)
Jun Zhang, University of Miami, CIMAS, Miami, FL, United States, Joseph Cione, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division, Joshua Wadler, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, United States, Guo Lin, University of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, United States, Jack Steward Elston, Black Swift Technologies, Boulder, CO, United States, Maciej Stachura, Black Swift Technologies, Boulder, United States, Joshua Fromm, Black Swift Technologies LLC, Boulder, United States, Jason Dunion, University of Miami and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL, United States and Xuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, United States
Impact of Vortex Height on Tropical Cyclone Genesis under Moderate Vertical Wind Shear (1989575)
Chelsea Nam1, Connor Stoll1 and Michael M Bell2, (1)Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, United States, (2)Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States
Global Trends of Rapid Intensification Volume in Tropical Cyclones (1989593)
Haiyan Jiang, Florida International Univ., Miami, United States, Oscar Guzman, Florida International University, Institute of Environment, Miami, United States and Hugh Willoughby, Florida International University, Miami, United States
Effects of Radiative Feedbacks on Tropical Cyclones in Aquaplanet Simulations (1989999)
Adam Burnett, Stanford University, Department of Earth System Science, Stanford, CA, United States, Aditi Sheshadri, Stanford University, Department of Earth System Science, Stanford, United States, Thomas E Robinson Jr, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States and Pu Lin, NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States
Enhancing Tropical Cyclone Forecasting with Multi-Source Data Assimilation and Ocean-Wave Coupling (1990505)
Haolin Liu1, Jimmy Chi-Hung Fung2, Zhenning Li3, Shaoqing Zhang4 and Alexis Kai-Hon Lau2, (1)Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Division of Environment and Sustainability, Hong Kong, China, (2)Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, (3)the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Division of Environment and Sustainability, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, (4)Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
The Time-Dependent Response of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity to Pacific SST Variability (1994159)
Jonathan Lin, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States, Raphael Rousseau-Rizzi, Hydro-Québec, Hydro-Quebec Research Center, Montreal, QC, Canada and Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, United States
High-resolution satellite imagery reveals distinctive convective patterns in rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones. (2004287)
Duvan Nieves, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellin, Medellin, Colombia, Jhayron Steven Pérez Carrasquilla, University of Maryland College Park, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, United States, Jiaxin Chen, University of Maryland, College Park, United States and Carlos David Hoyos Ortiz, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Medellín, Departamento de Geociencias y Medio Ambiente / Geoscience and Environment Department, Medellín, Colombia
