Fifty Years of the Burton Equation

Liemohn, Michael

SM006
Fifty Years of the Burton Equation

Session ID#: 248197

Session Description:

Fifty years ago (1975), a Dst prediction algorithm was published that has come to be known as the Burton equation. Since then, numerous studies have used the differential equation approach to predicting Dst, Kp, AL, and other geomagnetic indices from ground-based magnetometer data (SYM-H, SMR, SML, SME, etc.). Moreover, many other studies have applied completely different techniques, from first-principles numerical models to neural networks, to predict geomagnetic index time series. To celebrate this milestone, this session welcomes presentations on all geomagnetic activity index prediction techniques. Presentations are welcome that provide a retrospect of where we have come over the last 50 years, that showcase current techniques for activity prediction, as well as those with a prospective view of new directions in predicting the geospace system.

Co-Sponsor(s):

SA - SPA-Aeronomy

Index Terms:

2722 Forecasting [MAGNETOSPHERIC PHYSICS]
2788 Magnetic storms and substorms [MAGNETOSPHERIC PHYSICS]
7924 Forecasting [SPACE WEATHER]
7959 Models [SPACE WEATHER]

Primary Convener: Michael Warren Liemohn, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States

Conveners: Consuelo Cid, Universidad de Alcala, Alcala de Henares, Spain and Shasha Zou, University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States

Challenging ring-current models of the Carrington storm (1859747)

Jeffrey J Love, USGS Central Region Offices Denver, Denver, CO, United States and Kalevi Mursula, University of Oulu, ReSoLVE Centre of Excellence, Space Climate Research Unit, Oulu, Finland

Forecasting Local Geomagnetic Activity: Beyond Global Indices for regional impacts (1860947)

Armando Collado-Villaverde¹, Pablo Muñoz Sr¹ and Consuelo Cid², (1)University of Alcalá, Madrid, Spain, (2)Universidad de Alcala, Alcala de Henares, Spain

Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms Using Deep Learning and Solar Images (1862015)

Chunhui Xu¹, Harim Lee¹, Jason T. L. Wang¹, Haimin Wang¹, Yan Xu¹, Xiaoli Bai², Eunsu Park³ and Jihyeon Son³, (1)Institute for Space Weather Sciences, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, United States, (2)Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Rutgers University, Newark, United States, (3)Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon, South Korea

A Knowledge-Guided Deep Gaussian Process Model for Global Geomagnetic Perturbation Forecasting (1866520)

Hongfan Chen¹, Gabor Toth², Shasha Zou², Yang Chen³ and Xun Huan¹, (1)University of Michigan, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (2)University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (3)University of Michigan, Department of Statistics, Ann Arbor, United States

A New Local-Prediction-Based Approach for Forecasting Global Geomagnetic Kp and Hpo Indices (Invited) (1883689)

Guram Kervalishvili, Ingo Michaelis, Jan Rauberg, Monika Korte and Jurgen Matzka, GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, 2.3 Geomagnetism, Potsdam, Germany

The Early History of the Burton Equation (Invited) (1884248)

Robert L McPherron, Univ Calif Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States

Prediction of the Dst Index Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence and Physics-Informed Neural Networks (1905986)

Tsuyoshi Nishino, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan and Yoshizumi Miyoshi, Nagoya University, Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya, Japan

The prediction of local geomagnetic activity: A system science approach (1908821)

Richard Boynton, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10, United Kingdom and Michael A Balikhin, Univ Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom

Alfvénic Contribution from the Solar Wind to Magnetospheric Dynamics (1915835)

Consuelo Cid, Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States and Elena Saiz, University of Alcalá, Madrid, Spain

Universal Lévy Filter in Magnetospheric Response to Solar Variability: A New Paradigm for Space Weather Prediction (1986967)

James A Wanliss, Anderson University, College of Engineering, Anderson, United States

The Optical b2i (2001204)

Eric Donovan, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada

See more of: SPA-Magnetospheric Physics

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SM006 Fifty Years of the Burton Equation

Session Description:

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Index Terms:

SM006
Fifty Years of the Burton Equation