H118
Quantifying Uncertainty in Hydrologic Models
Session ID#: 248317
Session Description:
The increasing availability of process-based models, data-driven methods, and hybrid approaches incorporating AI/ML is transforming hydrology and hydrogeology. These simulation and prediction models can integrate diverse data sources, including in-situ measurements, high-resolution satellite observations, and geophysical surveys. Advances in computational resources have also improved our ability to quantify uncertainty in hydrologic models, which is essential to support decision-making under climate disturbances. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) help evaluate model structure, assess predictive confidence, and identify dominant controls across scales. This session invites contributions on the theory, development, and application of UQ and SA in hydrologic modeling. We encourage studies that integrate multiple datasets to calibrate and/or validate hydrologic models, or that employ AI/ML approaches to enhance model calibration or uncertainty quantification. Submissions addressing groundwater are especially welcome, given persistent challenges with limited subsurface observations and the potential for integrated model-data approaches to yield new insights.
Index Terms:
1846 Model calibration [HYDROLOGY]
1847 Modeling [HYDROLOGY]
1869 Stochastic hydrology [HYDROLOGY]
1873 Uncertainty assessment [HYDROLOGY]
Primary Convener: Lijing Wang, University of Connecticut, Department of Earth Sciences, Storrs, United States
Conveners: Juliane Mai, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada, Peishi Jiang, University of Alabama, Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States and Niklas Linde, University of Lausanne, Institute of Earth Sciences, Lausanne, Switzerland
Student/Early Career Convener: Lijing Wang, University of Connecticut, Department of Earth Sciences, Storrs, United States
Differentiable Physics‐Informed Machine Learning Enhances High-resolution Hydrologic Modeling (Invited) (1847360)
Yalan Song1, Chaopeng Shen2, Haoyu Ji2, Tadd Bindas3, Leo Lonzarich2, Jiangtao Liu4 and Nels J Frazier5, (1)Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University Park, PA, United States, (2)Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University Park, United States, (3)Raytheon NGWPC, Arlington, United States, (4)Pennsylvania State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University Park, United States, (5)Lynker, Boulder, United States
Get your monies worth: Systematic targeting of hydrologic model uncertainty reduction (1850247)
Jared David Smith, U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Mission Area, Reston, United States, Sydney Foks, U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Mission Area, Lakewood, United States and Jesse Dickinson, U.S. Geological Survey, Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division, Tucson, United States
Baseflow Data Assimilation to Improve Hydrologic Modeling through Enhanced Representation of Groundwater–Surface-Water Interactions (1856870)
Parnian Ghaneei1, Ehsan Foroumandi2 and Hamid Moradkhani2, (1)University of Alabama, Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States, (2)The University of Alabama, Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research, Tuscaloosa, United States
Satellite-based Precipitation and Model Uncertainty Quantification for Deep Learning-based Streamflow Prediction (1884181)
Kaidi Peng1, Daniel B Wright2, Lei Yan1, Aaron Alexander1 and Yagmur Derin3, (1)University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, United States, (2)University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States, (3)University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States
Uncertainty Modeling and Detection of Dynamic Shifts in Rating Curves to Improve the Reliability of Streamflow Records (1922329)
Sai Vikas Kona1,2, Rajarshi Das Bhowmik2, Murray Cameron Peel1 and Andrew William Western1, (1)The University of Melbourne, Department of Infrastructure Engineering, Parkville, VIC, Australia, (2)Indian Institute of Science, Interdisciplinary Centre for Water Research, Bangalore, India
Quantifying Pesticide Transport Pathways Using a PWC Model and Global Sensitivity Analysis: A Case Study of Chlorothalonil in South Florida (1932562)
Wei Mao1, Marie Cecil2, Elshall Ahmed S. Sr3, Mewcha A. Bremedhinb3, Paige Babushkin2 and Ming Ye4, (1)Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States, (2)Florida State University, Tallahassee, United States, (3)Florida Gulf Coast University, Department of Bioengineering, Civil Engineering, and Environmental Engineering, Fort Myers, United States, (4)Florida State University, Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, United States
Toward Accurate and Scalable Riverine and Coastal System Characterization (Invited) (1939157)
Jonghyun Harry Lee, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering/ Water Resources Research Center, Honolulu, United States, Peter Rivera Casillas, US Army Corps of Engineers, Information Technology Laboratory, Vicksburg, United States, Zachary Zody, U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, United States, Sourav Dutta, University of Texas at Austin, Oden Institute for Computational Engineering & Sciences, Austin, United States and Matthew Farthing, U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Vicksburg, United States
Quantifying Key Parameter Sensitivities for Water Table Depth in Hydrological Schemes of CoLM-PSUADE (1943878)
Tingting Wu1, Shupeng Zhang2, Chen Yang2, Zhongwang Wei2, Hua Yuan2, Wenzong Dong2, Xiaofan Yang1 and Yongjiu Dai2, (1)Beijing Normal University, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing, China, (2)Sun Yat-Sen University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Guangzhou, China
Incorporating Empirical Hazard Uncertainty into HEC-FDA (1957818)
David Ho, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Institute For Water Resources, Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, California, UNITED STATES, Richard Nugent Jr I, U.S. Army Corp of Engineers, Institute For Water Resources, Hydrologic Engineering, Davis, United States and Evan Heisman, US Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, United States
Numerical Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification of Groundwater Pumping Tests in a Heterogeneous Subsurface to Guide Field Campaigns (1977876)
Jinwoo Im1, Kathleen F Walker2, Shekhar Mishra3, Dipankar Dwivedi4, Lauren M Lui3, Markus De Raad3, Hira Lesea3, Dominique Joyner5, James Marquis6, Yajiao Wang7, Jizhong Zhou7, Trent Northen3, Matthew W. Fields6, Adam P Arkin3, Terry Hazen8 and Michelle E Newcomer9, (1)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth & Environmental Sciences Area, Berkeley, United States, (2)University of Tennessee, Knoxville, United States, (3)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, United States, (4)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth and Environmental Sciences Area, Berkeley, CA, United States, (5)University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, United States, (6)Montana State University, Bozeman, United States, (7)University of Oklahoma, Norman, United States, (8)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (9)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Climate & Ecosystem Sciences, Berkeley, CA, United States
Applications of Analytical AI in Geosciences (1998032)
Anatoliy Koshulko, Geosphere S&T, Kyiv, Ukraine and Oleksiy Koshulko, Senior Research Associate at V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kiyv, Ukraine