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Session Proposal: Warming-Induced Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Reducing Uncertainty from the Tropics to the Poles (AGU25)

B099
Warming-Induced Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Reducing Uncertainty from the Tropics to the Poles

Session ID#: 249370

Session Description:
Greenhouse gas concentrations (GHGs)—methane (CH₄), carbon dioxide (CO₂), and nitrous oxide (N₂O)—are rising at accelerating rates. Emerging evidence suggests that warming-induced emissions from natural systems such as tropical wetlands, thawing permafrost, and fire-prone landscapes may be significant contributors. These feedbacks, especially non-CO2 GHGs, are not fully represented in current models, creating uncertainty in climate projections as well as policy and mitigation planning. This session invites submissions that explore the biogeochemical processes driving warming-induced emissions, including measurement campaigns, remote sensing approaches, and ecosystem-scale modeling. We welcome research leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to estimate feedback-driven fluxes and assessments of under-monitored regions, especially in the tropics and high latitudes. Submissions proposing strategies to improve observation networks, reduce uncertainty, and support integration of natural feedbacks into Earth system models and mitigation frameworks are also encouraged.
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • C - Cryosphere
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • H - Hydrology
Index Terms:

0428 Carbon cycling [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
0466 Modeling [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
0497 Wetlands [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
0702 Permafrost [CRYOSPHERE]
Primary Convener:  Danielle Potocek, Spark Climate Solutions, San Francisco, United States
Conveners:  Robert B Jackson, Stanford University, Earth System Science, Stanford, United States, Susan Natali, Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, United States and Hinsby Cadillo-Quiroz, Arizona State University, School of Life Sciences, Tempe, United States
Student/Early Career Convener:  Licheng LIU, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering, Saint Paul, United States
 
Towards a Tropical Wetland Digital Twin: Emulating Tropical Wetland Extent and Methane Emissions from the JULES Land Surface Model (Invited) (1854937)
Robert Parker1, Cristina Ruiz Villena1, Khunsa Fatima1, Nicola Gedney2, Chandana Pantula1 and Paul I Palmer3, (1)University of Leicester, National Centre for Earth Observation, School of Physics and Astronomy, Leicester, United Kingdom, (2)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, (3)University of Edinburgh, National Centre for Earth Observation, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
 
Warming-Induced Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Blind Spot in Climate Science, Policy and Mitigation (1878647)
Benjamin Poulter1, Danielle Potocek1, Brian Buma2, Robert B Jackson3, Brendan M Rogers4, Susan Natali4 and Phil Duffy1, (1)Spark Climate Solutions, San Francisco, United States, (2)Environmental Defense Fund Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)Stanford University, Earth System Science, Stanford, United States, (4)Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, United States
 
Spatial and Seasonal Drivers of Methane Concentrations in Tropical Streams (1888582)
Vonihanitriniaina D Z Andriamanantena R, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), EVA Rivas Pozo, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea, Hojeong Kang, Yonsei University, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul, South Korea; 2 North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, China and Yeonjoo Kim, Yonsei University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)
 
Warming-induced Carbon Emissions from Permafrost Thaw and High-latitude Wildfires Indicate Need for Additional Action to Keep Paris Agreement Temperature Goals Within Reach (1896218)
Brendan M Rogers1, Christina Schaedel1, Rachael Treharne1, Thomas Gasser2, Merritt R Turetsky3, Erin MacDonald1 and Susan Natali1, (1)Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, United States, (2)IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, (3)University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, United States
 
Wetland Greenhouse Gas Sink Capacity Collapses Under Warming, Fueling Methane-Driven Feedback (1896876)
Shizhou Ma, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada, Irena F Creed, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada, Pascal Badiou, Ducks Unlimited Canada, Institute for Wetland and Waterfowl Research, Stonewall, MB, Canada, Sheel Bansal, U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, Jamestown, United States and Zhen Zhang, ITP Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
 
Warming-induced emissions solutions: Strategies for researching and mitigating indirect human emissions from ecosystems (Invited) (1898864)
Brian Buma1, Peter C Frumhoff2,3, Brendan M Rogers3, Stavroula Sartzetakis4, Christina Schaedel3, Susan Natali3, Carly Phillips5, Alice Alpert4, Matti Goldberg3, Josep Gili Canadell6, Kate Dooley7, Werner Kurz8, Carlos Afonso Nobre9, Emily Ury4,10, Sheel Bansal11, Irena F Creed12, Meredith Holgerson13, Sara Knox14, Pascal Badiou15, Zhen Zhang16, Benjamin Poulter17 and Steve Hamburg4, (1)Environmental Defense Fund Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)Harvard University, Cambridge, United States, (3)Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, United States, (4)Environmental Defense Fund, New York, United States, (5)Union of Concerned Scientists, Boston, United States, (6)CSIRO Environment, Canberra, Australia, (7)University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia, (8)Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Victoria, BC, Canada, (9)USP University of Sao Paulo, São José dos Campos, Brazil, (10)Colgate University, Hamilton, United States, (11)U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, Jamestown, United States, (12)University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada, (13)Cornell University, Ithaca, United States, (14)McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada, (15)Ducks Unlimited Canada, Institute for Wetland and Waterfowl Research, Stonewall, MB, Canada, (16)ITP Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, (17)Spark Climate Solutions, San Francisco, United States
 
Multiple sources of aerobic methane production in aquatic ecosystems respond to experimental warming and nutrient enrichment (1904076)
J Michael Beman1, Elisabet Perez Coronel2 and Fidel Machado-Perez2, (1)University of California Merced, Merced, CA, United States, (2)University of California Merced, Merced, United States
 
Simulated Detection of Methane Emissions from Arctic Permafrost Thawing with Atmospheric Radiocarbon and Other Tracer Measurements (1909163)
Xinran Yang1, Heather D Graven1, Rebecca Ward2 and Anita Ganesan2, (1)Imperial College London, Physics, London, SW7, United Kingdom, (2)University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom
 
Data-driven upscaling of global wetland methane emissions (Invited) (1925643)
Kunxiaojia Yuan1, Qing Zhu1, Dr. Fa Li2 and William J Riley3, (1)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Climate & Ecosystem Sciences Division, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)Stanford University, Earth System Science, Stanford, United States, (3)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Berkeley, United States
 
The Evidence for a Feedback between Tropical Wetland Emissions of Methane and Changing Climate (1963771)
Lori Bruhwiler, NOAA Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States and Youmi Oh, NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder, United States
 
Microbial driver of 2006 – 2023 CH4 growth indicated by trends in atmospheric δD-CH4 and δ13C-CH4 (1967529)
Ben RiddellYoung1, Sylvia Michel2, Xin Lan3, Pieter P Tans4,5, Thomas Röckmann6, Bibhasvata Dasgupta7, Youmi Oh8, Lori Bruhwiler3, Ryo Fujita9, Taku Umezawa10, Shinji Morimoto11 and John B Miller3, (1)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)University of Colorado Boulder, Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research, Boulder, United States, (3)NOAA, Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (4)University of Colorado at Boulder, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, Boulder, United States, (5)Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, Boulder, United States, (6)Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht, Netherlands, (7)Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands, (8)NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (9)Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan, (10)NIES National Institute of Environmental Studies, CGER, Ibaraki, Japan, (11)Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
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