H045
Beyond the 100-year Return Period: Hydrologic Mega Disasters
Session ID#: 249407
Session Description:
Billions of dollars are spent worldwide annually in response to extreme rainfall, floods, and droughts. Aging infrastructure, urbanization, and climate change all compound these "mega disasters". Examples include “unprecedented” events like Hurricane Helene, the southwestern US megadrought, and flooding in Spain, Brazil, and Bangladesh. These hydrologic “mega disasters” are difficult to anticipate because of 1) small sample sizes of observed extreme events, 2) uncertainty in the models and data products, 3) human interactions that intensify or dampen events, and 4) uncertainty in the changing conditions leading to these events.This session invites studies on hydrologic mega disasters and the conditions that lead to them, especially those focusing on return periods beyond 100 years. Example topics include statistical characterization of severe drought, nonstationary frequency analysis, and probable maximum precipitation/flood estimation. All methods of investigation—including process based, statistical, and data-driven—are encouraged. We particularly encourage submissions that investigate changing and future conditions.
Index Terms:
1807 Climate impacts [HYDROLOGY]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
1840 Hydrometeorology [HYDROLOGY]
1873 Uncertainty assessment [HYDROLOGY]
Primary Convener: Aaron Alexander, University of Wisconsin Madison, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, WI, United States
Conveners: Daniel B Wright, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States, Dr. Joshua K Roundy, PhD, University of Kansas, Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, Lawrence, KS, United States and Samantha Hartke, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States
Influence of Warming on Rainfall Characteristics of Recent Hurricanes in the Gulf Region of Continental United States (1904517)
Ishrat Jahan Dollan1, Kevin Reed2 and Dian-Yi Li1, (1)Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, NY, United States, (2)Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, United States
The 1000-year context of extreme precipitation in the Central United States from a novel blend of observations and climate model simulations (1919953)
Alexander Thompson1, Jack Hutchings2 and Dr. Bronwen L Konecky2, (1)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)Washington University in St Louis, Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, St. Louis, MO, United States
A 300-year record of hydrologic extremes from the French Broad River (TN) yields new insights into recent extreme floods and droughts (1922933)
Lisa Davis, University of Alabama, Department of Geography and the Environment, Tuscaloosa, United States, Ray Lombardi, University of Memphis, Earth Sciences, Memphis, TN, United States, Matthew Gage, University of Alabama, Department of Anthropology, Tuscaloosa, United States, Glenn A Tootle, University of Alabama, Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States, Tammy M Rittenour, Utah State University, Department of Geosciences, Logan, UT, United States and Chase Quimby, University of Alabama, Geography and the Environment, Tuscaloosa, United States
Weather Whiplash: Abrupt Transitions from Prolonged Dryness to Extreme Wetness (Invited) (1957954)
Andrew Hoell1, Kelly M Mahoney1, Mimi Abel1, William Ryan Currier1, Janice L Bytheway1, Joel Lisonbee2,3, Towler Erin1, Jason Gerlich2,4, Roger S Pulwarty1,5 and Veva Deheza3, (1)NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (2)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, United States, (3)National Integrated Drought Information System, Boulder, United States, (4)NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System, Boulder, United States, (5)NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States
Re-evaluating Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates: Sensitivity to Storm Transposition, Maximization, and Rotation Using Modern Datasets (1977221)
Gabriel Perez, Oklahoma State University, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stillwater, United States, Scott DeNeale, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, United States, Shih-Chieh Kao, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Science Division, Oak Ridge, United States and Felipe Quintero, University of Iowa, Iowa Flood Center and IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, Iowa City, United States
