H083
Hydrometeorologic extremes: prediction, simulation, and change
Session ID#: 249444
Session Description:
Hydrometeorologic extremes (e.g., droughts, floods, extreme precipitation and heatwaves) can have negative ecologic, economic, and societal impacts. The development of suitable preparation and mitigation strategies to counteract these consequences requires local and spatial estimates of the frequency, magnitude, and potential impact of such extremes under current and future conditions. However, hazard and risk assessment through statistical, hydrological, and impact modeling is challenging for several reasons, including inadequate data, the multivariate and compounding nature of extremes, and non-stationarities introduced by changes in climate, land use, or regulation.We invite contributions tackling these and other challenges related to local and regional hydrometeorological hazard and risk assessments. Potential submissions include but are not limited to: stochastic simulations; novel datasets for different components of risk; predictions in ungauged basins; multivariate frequency analyses; assessment of regional and spatial dependencies; understanding of the physical processes responsible for extremes and approaches to quantify their future changes.
Co-Sponsor(s):
Index Terms:
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1812 Drought [HYDROLOGY]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
1821 Floods [HYDROLOGY]
Primary Convener: Erin Dougherty, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Conveners: Manuela Irene Brunner, WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Mountain Hydrology and Mass Movements, Birmensdorf, Switzerland, Laurie Huning, California State University, Long Beach, Civil Engineering and Construction Engineering Management, Long Beach, United States and Naresh Devineni, Department of Civil Engineering, The City College of the City University of New York, and CUNY-CREST, Department of Civil Engineering, New York, United States
Student/Early Career Convener: Larisa Tarasova, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Catchment Hydrology, Halle (Saale), Germany
Synthesizing multi-dimensional drought trends across the United States (1881205)
Stacey A Archfield, USGS Office of Groundwater, Reston, United States, Schafer Lindsey, US Geological Survey, Central Midwest Water Science Center, Catonsville, Maryland, United States, Caelan Simeone, U.S. Geological Survey, Oregon Water Science Center, Portland, United States and John Christopher Hammond, U.S. Geological Survey, Maryland-Delaware-DC Water Science Center, Catonsville, United States
Rainfall Frequency Analysis Across Scales in Complex Terrain Using Normalized Stochastic Storm Transposition and Multiscale Storm Selection (1884049)
Lei Yan, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Civil Environmental and Engineering, Madison, United States, Daniel B Wright, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States, Benjamin FitzGerald, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States, Antonia Sebastian, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Department of Earth, Marine, and Environmental Sciences, Chapel Hill, NC, United States, Marissa Webber, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Earth, Marine, and Environmental Sciences, Chapel Hill, NC, United States, David Rosa, FEMA Engineering Resources Branch, Washington, United States and Gregory S. Karlovits, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, United States
Towards Early Warning for All: Scalable Urban Flood Warning Systems in Ethiopia (Invited) (1885208)
Ruben Imhoff1, Jerom P.M. Aerts2, Tycho Bovenschen1, Mohammed Yasir3, Frank O Annor3,4, Aklilu Teklesadik5, Modathir Zaroug6, Martijn Kwant1 and Dorien Lugt2, (1)Deltares, Operational Water Management & Early Warning, Delft, Netherlands, (2)HKV, Delft, Netherlands, (3)Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO), Nairobi, Kenya, (4)TU Delft, Delft, Netherlands, (5)The Netherlands Red Cross, The Hague, Netherlands, (6)IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), Nairobi, Kenya
Modernizing Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates over the Gila River Basin (1896503)
Nicholas D Lybarger, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, United States, Andrew James Newman, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, John F. England, USACE, Risk Management Center, Lakewood, United States, Samantha Hartke, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Denver, United States and Michael Warner, US Army Corps of Engineers, Seattle District, Seattle, United States
Predictive Modeling of Drought Propagation in Heterogeneous Hydrologic Systems (1900051)
Ethiopia Bisrat Zeleke, Florida International University, Earth and Environment, Miami, FL, United States, Celray James Chawanda, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Brussel, Belgium and Assefa M Melesse, Florida International University, Earth and Environment, Miami, United States
Utility of Precipitation Generating Mechanisms to Model Extremes in the United States (1901397)
Debarghya Bhattacharyya, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States, Kenneth Kunkel, North Carolina State University, Asheville, United States and Giuseppe Mascaro, Arizona State University, School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Tempe, AZ, United States
Assessment of Future Streamflow Variability in the Duck River Basin, USA under CMIP6 Climate Projections using HEC-HMS Model (1910629)
Sujoy Dey1, S. M. Tasin Zahid1, Saptaporna Dey2 and Md. Jubayer Ahamed1, (1)Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Dhaka, Bangladesh, (2)Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Department of Industrial and Production Engineering, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Uncovering the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hydrological Whiplash Events Across the Contiguous United States (1911956)
Yixin Yang1,2, Gabriele Villarini3,4 and Long Yang1, (1)Nanjing University, School of Geography and Ocean Science & Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling, Nanjing, China, (2)Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering & High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton, United States, (4)Princeton University, High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ, United States
One model to fit them all: On the use of the Compound Poisson Extended Generalized Pareto Distribution for IDF Curves across Time Scales (1913729)
Taereem Kim, Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering & High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ, United States, Philippe Naveau, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement LSCE/IPSL, Gif sur Yvette, France and Gabriele Villarini, Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering & High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton, United States
Projected Changes in Peak Discharge Globally across Different Future Scenarios (1914516)
Hanbeen Kim1, Gabriele Villarini1, Jeffrey McCollum2 and Sarah Maebius3, (1)Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering & High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton, United States, (2)FM, Research Division, Norwood, United States, (3)Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States
Unequal Waters: Contrasting Floods in Natural and Managed Watersheds and Implications for Social Vulnerability (1928966)
Nitin Singh, Auburn University, Department of Crop, Soil and Environmental Sciences, Auburn, United States, C Rhett Jackson, University of Georgia, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, Athens, GA, United States and Ryan Emanuel, Duke University, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, United States
Vine Copula based Regional Frequency Analysis of Extreme Rainfall for the urban Northeast United States Under Climate Change (1929704)
Jae-Ung Yu1, Hyun-Han Kwon2 and Naresh Devineni1, (1)Department of Civil Engineering, The City College of the City University of New York, and CUNY-CREST, Department of Civil Engineering, New York, United States, (2)Sejong University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul, South Korea
Improving Simulation of Extreme Streamflow in Northern Chile using High-Resolution Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts (1930156)
M. del R. Lourdes Mendoza Fierro, University of Arizona, Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, AZ, United States, Hsin-I Chang, University of Arizona, Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, United States, Christopher L. Castro, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, United States, Rodrigo Valdés-Pineda, University of Arizona, Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, AZ, United States and Christoforus Bayu Risanto, Vatican Observatory, Città del Vaticano, Italy
Uncertainty of slope-area peak-flow measurements: a simulation-informed roadmap (1932398)
Jory S Hecht, U.S. Geological Survey, Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division, Water Resources Mission Area, Northborough, United States, Timothy O Hodson, U.S. Geological Survey, Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division, Water Resources Mission Area, Urbana, United States and Terry Kenney, U.S. Geological Survey, Office of Quality Assurance, Water Resources Mission Area, West Valley City, UT, United States
Unveiling the Evolving Spatiotemporal Dependence of Flood Extremes under Climate Change (1933551)
Poornima Chandra Lekha Posa1, Conrad Wasko2, Rajarshi Das Bhowmik1 and Wenyan Wu3, (1)Indian Institute of Science, Interdisciplinary Centre for Water Research, Bangalore, India, (2)University of Sydney, School of Civil Engineering, Sydney, NSW, Australia, (3)University of Melbourne, Department of Infrastructure Engineering, Parkville, VIC, Australia
Temporal Clustering of Extreme Precipitation Events and Hydrologic Response in Southeast Texas (1935072)
Rishika Ananthula, University of Texas at Austin, Maseeh Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, Austin, TX, United States, Paola Passalacqua, The University of Texas at Austin, Maseeh Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, Austin, United States and Geeta Persad, University of Texas at Austin, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Austin, United States
Extreme-Range Precipitation Probability Across Global Weather Systems (1937002)
Suqin Duan1, Wei-Ming Tsai1, Fiaz Ahmed2 and J David Neelin1, (1)University of California, Los Angeles, Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States, (2)University of California, Los Angeles, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States
Selection of CMIP6 Climate Model Candidates Based on theEvaluation of Seasonality and Extreme Precipitation (1942173)
Yun-Sung Kim, Sejong University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), Hyun-Han Kwon, Sejong University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul, South Korea and SuBin Jeong, Sejong University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul, South Korea
Characterizing Ultra-Extreme Precipitation Events in 100 Global Major Cities (1945514)
Yookyung Jeong, Incheon National University, Department of Environmental and Energy Engineering, Korea, Republic of (South), Alan F Hamlet, University of Notre Dame, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering & Earth Sciences, Notre Dame, IN, United States and Kyuhyun Byun, Incheon National University, Department of Environmental Engineering, Incheon, South Korea
Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Trend Analysis of Compound Hot-Dry Extremes in Northern India (1946313)
Abhimanyu Verma, INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY(BHU),VARANASI, CIVIL ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT, Varanasi, India and Kamlesh Pandey, Indian Institute of Technology (BHU), Varanasi, Department of Civil Engineering, Varanasi, India
Hydraulic Modeling of Flow Extremes and Sedimentation on the Lower Missouri Through the End of the 21st Century (1952911)
Michelle O'Donnell1, Damon M Hall, PhD2, Angela J Catalano3, Charlotte Wiman4, Sylvia Dee5, James Doss-Gollin6 and Samuel E. Munoz4, (1)Northeastern University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Boston, MA, United States, (2)Northeastern University, Marine and Environmental Sciences; School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs, Boston, MA, United States, (3)Northeastern University, Boston, MA, United States, (4)Northeastern University, Marine & Environmental Sciences, Boston, MA, United States, (5)Rice University, Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Houston, TX, United States, (6)Rice University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Houston, TX, United States
Mapping the Motion of Historical Extreme Rainfall Events Across CONUS: A Dataset on Storm Tracks, Speed, and Structure (1955776)
Diego Osorio1, Gabriel Perez1, Daniel B Wright2 and Yuan Liu3, (1)Oklahoma State University, School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stillwater, United States, (2)University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States, (3)University of Wisconsin-Madison, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States
A Generalized Error Model for Capturing Extremes in Coupled Hydrological Models (1958154)
Kajol Basnet1, Julianne Quinn2, Mr. Aashutosh Aryal1, Jonathan Lamontagne3, Rajiv Sinha4 and Venkataraman (Venkat) Lakshmi1, (1)University of Virginia, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Charlottesville, United States, (2)University of Virginia, Engineering Systems and Environment, Charlottesville, United States, (3)Tufts University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Medford, United States, (4)Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Department of Earth Sciences, Kanpur, India
Modeling Future Heat Extremes in Milwaukee Wisconsin Using Extremes-Preserving Psuedo-Global Warming Methods (1963655)
Aaron Alexander1, Erin Dougherty2, Daniel B Wright3, Carolyn Breden Voter4, Steven P Loheide III5, Courtney Vanorio6, Mutlu Ozdogan7 and Annemarie Schneider6, (1)University of Wisconsin Madison, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, WI, United States, (2)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (3)University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States, (4)University of Delaware, Civil and Environmental Engineering; Earth Sciences, Newark, United States, (5)University of Wisconsin Madison, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States, (6)University of Wisconsin Madison, Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, Madison, United States, (7)University of Wisconsin Madison, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, Madison, WI, United States
NOAA Atlas 15 - Preliminary Precipitation Frequency Estimates for CONUS (1964022)
Janel Hanrahan1, Sanja Perica1, Kenneth Kunkel2, Lynne Carole Trabachino1, Marcelo Lago3, Debbie Martin1, Sandra Pavlovic4 and Fernando Renzo Salas5, (1)RTI International, Research Triangle Park, United States, (2)North Carolina State University, Asheville, United States, (3)LAGO Consulting & Services, Tampa, United States, (4)NOAA/NWS Office of Water Prediction, Geo-Intelligence Division, Silver Spring, United States, (5)NOAA Office of Water Prediction, National Water Center, Geo-Intelligence Division, Tuscaloosa, United States
No More ARFing Around: Can We Move on from Areal Reduction Factors? (1966237)
Andrew Verdin, Ph.D., P.H., USACE Risk Management Center, Minneapolis, United States, John F. England, USACE, Risk Management Center, Lakewood, United States, Samantha Hartke, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Denver, United States and Haden Smith, USACE Risk Management Center, Denver, United States
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Rapid Soil Moisture Fluctuations over the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin (1969061)
Ryan D. Harp, University of Minnesota, Climate Adaptation Partnership, St. Paul, United States; NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States and Andrew Hoell, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States
Characterizing The Spatial Coherence Of Low-Flow Events Over The Conterminous United States And Its Interannual Variability. (1972745)
Aayushman Subedi, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM, United States, Enrico Zorzetto, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Earth and Environmental Science Department, Socorro, NM, United States and Manuela Irene Brunner, WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Mountain Hydrology and Mass Movements, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Enhancing the Computational Efficiency of Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST)-Based Flood Hazard and Risk Modeling Techniques Using Importance Sampling (1974645)
Shubham Jain1, Prashanta Bajracharya1, Manoj Kc1, Haden Smith2, Matthew Dircksen3, David Rosa4 and Christina Lindemer5, (1)Michael Baker International, Katy, United States, (2)USACE Risk Management Center, Denver, United States, (3)FEMA, Risk Analysis, Planning, and Information Directorate, Washington, United States, (4)FEMA Engineering Resources Branch, Washington, United States, (5)FEMA, Risk Management Directorate, Washington, United States
How Basin Size, Shape, and Orientation Modulate Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves (1976664)
Arundhaty Mandal Oishi1, Gabriel Perez1 and Daniel B Wright2, (1)Oklahoma State University, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stillwater, United States, (2)University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States
From Rainfall to Risk: How the MJO Shapes Fire and Drought Conditions in Hawaiʻi (1988311)
Audrey Nash, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, United States, Giuseppe Torri, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Atmospheric Sciences, Honolulu, United States and Anastasios Rovithakis, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
TxRain: A Bayesian framework for integrating historical observations and model projections to develop nonstationary IDF curves (1995785)
James Doss-Gollin1, Yuchen Lu1, John W Nielsen-Gammon2, William J Baule3 and Srikanth Koka4, (1)Rice University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Houston, TX, United States, (2)Texas A&M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, United States, (3)Michigan State University, Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States, (4)Texas Water Development Board, Austin, TX, United States
