The deadline to submit a session, town hall, or pre-conference workshop proposal for AGU25 has passed. Please search for and review proposed sessions below. Please note this site is frozen as of 4/29/25 and will not reflect any changes to proposals made after this date.


Conveners will be contacted by the AGU25 Program Committee with any requests for mergers or edits to proposals. Conveners will be notified of the acceptance of their proposal in mid-June.


Abstract submissions will also open in mid-June and the deadline for abstract submissions is 30 July, 2025.


Please visit the AGU25 website for more information or please contact AGU with any questions.

Session Proposal: Drought risk in changing climate – diagnosis, modeling, and management (AGU25)

H058
Drought risk in changing climate – diagnosis, modeling, and management

Session ID#: 249867

Session Description:
Droughts pose a persistent threat to food and water security worldwide. Understanding the evolution of droughts across spatial and temporal scales, climate drivers influencing these extremes, impacts of climate change on droughts, and repercussions of droughts on food and water security are essential for effective planning and development of mitigation measures. Consequently, there is a critical need for advancements in modeling, monitoring, prediction, and risk assessment to improve resilience against droughts. In this session, we welcome research contributions encompassing, but not limited to, the following areas: (1) analyzing changes in the severity, duration, intensity, frequency, and spatial extent of droughts under changing climate; (2) exploring novel methodologies for drought characterizations and predictions, e.g., machine learning techniques; (3) understanding the climate drivers of droughts and their spatial/temporal evolution, including flash droughts; (4) characterizing drought risk, vulnerability, exposure, and adaptive capacity; (5) proposing novel methods for short- and long-term drought management strategies.
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • ED - Education
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • SY - Science and Society
Index Terms:

1807 Climate impacts [HYDROLOGY]
1812 Drought [HYDROLOGY]
4315 Monitoring, forecasting, prediction [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4333 Disaster risk analysis and assessment [NATURAL HAZARDS]
Primary Convener:  Chandra Rupa Rajulapati, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
Conveners:  Arpita Mondal, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Department of Civil Engineering and Centre for Climate Studies, Mumbai, India and Dr. Sudarshana Mukhopadhyay, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States
 
Global Assessment of Compound Meteorological-Soil Moisture Droughts: Trends and Climate Mode Influences (1851138)
Sebastian Marshall1, Thanh Nhan Duc Tran1 and Venkataraman (Venkat) Lakshmi2, (1)University of Virginia, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Charlottesville, VA, United States, (2)University of Virginia, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Charlottesville, United States
 
Global Droughts in an Interconnected World: A Network-Based Assessment of Regional Risk and Vulnerability (1866870)
Kenneth John Duhaylungsod, Kongju National University, Gongju, Korea, Republic of (South), Kuk-Hyun Ahn, Kongju University, Seobuk-gu, Cheonan-si, South Korea and Munir Ahmad Nayak, National Institute of Technology, Department of Civil Engineering, Jammu and Kashmir 190006, India
 
Accelerating Drought Vulnerability in India: Vegetation Water Stress Under Climate Change (1867037)
Shivansh Tiwary, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Department of Civil Engineering, Mumbai, India and Arpita Mondal, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Department of Civil Engineering and Centre for Climate Studies, Mumbai, India
 
Aridity-based consistency evaluation of drought indices under climate change (1867504)
Femin C Varghese, Indian Institute of Technology Palakkad, Department of Civil Engineering, Palakkad, India and Subhasis Mitra, Indian Institute of Technology, Department of Civil Engineering, Palakkad, India
 
Assessing Reservoir Storage Impacts on Multi-Scale Drought Propagation Using an Upstream-Downstream Framework (1872594)
Mr. Ajay Gupta, PhD1,2, Manoj Kumar Jain1, Rajendra Prasad Pandey1 and Prof. David M. Hannah, PhD2,3, (1)Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Hydrology, Roorkee, India, (2)University of Birmingham, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Birmingham, United Kingdom, (3)University of Birmingham, Birmingham Institute for Sustainability & Climate Action, Birmingham, United Kingdom
 
Climate-Induced Disparities in Drought Resilience Across the Divided Korean Peninsula in the Context of Socioeconomic Differences (1884801)
Won-Ho Nam, Hankyong National University, School of Social Safety and Systems Engineering, Anseong, South Korea
 
Understanding Flash Drought Dynamics with Surface-Root Zone Soil Moisture and Vegetation Impacts (1886411)
Md Sadril Islam Khan, Oklahoma State University, Geography, Stillwater, United States, Yuting Zhou, Oklahoma State University, Department of Geography, Stillwater, OK, United States and Jordan Christian, University of North Dakota, Atmospheric Sciences, Grand Forks, United States
 
Structural Shifts in Future Drought Risk under Climate Change: A Multi-Dimensional Assessment Using the Integrated Drought Risk Index (IDR) (1886790)
Jongho Ahn, Jaeyoung Kim and Moon-Hwan Lee, Korea Environment Institute, Water and Land Research Group, Sejong, South Korea
 
Aridification Distorts Drought Monitoring and Relief Efforts (1887828)
Zhiying Li1, Richard Seager2, Jason E Smerdon2 and Justin S Mankin3, (1)Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, United States, (2)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, (3)Dartmouth College, Department of Geography, Hanover, United States
 
The role of reservoir storage and groundwater withdrawals on drought recovery and mitigation at seasonal-to-interannual time scales (Invited) (1887973)
Sankar Arumugam, North Carolina State University Raleigh, Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, Raleigh, United States
 
Unraveling Drought Propagation Rates and Uncertainty Across Forested Biomes (1889726)
Linh Uyen Chi Vo, California State University Long Beach, Department of Computer Engineering and Computer Science, Long Beach, CA, United States and Laurie Huning, California State University, Long Beach, Civil Engineering and Construction Engineering Management, Long Beach, United States
 
Still Dry After the Drought: Modeling Soil Moisture Recovery in the Colorado River Basin (1895814)
Fletcher Hozven, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States, Samantha Stevenson, University of California Santa Barbara, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, Santa Barbara, United States, Cali Pfleger, UC Santa Barbara, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, Santa Barbara, United States, Dr. Danielle E Touma, PhD, University of Texas at Austin, Institute for Geophysics, Austin, United States and Geeta Persad, University of Texas at Austin, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Austin, United States
 
ENSO‑Modulated Escalation of Global Drought: How ENSO Drives Drought Occurrence and Severity (1899061)
Thanh Nhan Duc Tran1, Vinh Tran2, Arfan Arshad3, Benjamin Goffin4, Son K. Do1, Khuong H Tran5, John B Eylander6, John D Bolten7, Sydney Crisanti8, Valeriy Yu Ivanov9 and Venkataraman (Venkat) Lakshmi10, (1)University of Virginia, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Charlottesville, VA, United States, (2)University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States, (3)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (4)HSM, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, IMT, IRD, Montpellier, France, (5)NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, United States, (6)USACE/ERDC/CRREL, Hanover, United States, (7)Hydrological Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt MD, United States, (8)U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Vicksburg, United States, (9)University of Michigan, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (10)University of Virginia, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Charlottesville, United States
 
Spatiotemporal Propagations of Subseasonal Droughts over the Contiguous United States (1900452)
Mr. Sudhanshu Kumar and Di Tian, Auburn University, Department of Crop, Soil & Environmental Sciences, Auburn, United States
 
Evolution of Water Balance, Cost and Stress in the Maipo River Basin During the 21st Century, Chile. (1901413)
María Puentes Nazal, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Instituto de Geografía, Santiago, Chile, Fabrice Lambert, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Instituto de Geografía, Santiago, Chile and Rubén Calvo-Gallardo, University of Chile, Facultad de Ciencias Agronómicas, Santiago, Chile
 
Global Flash Drought Risk Under Climate Change: The Role of Definitions in Impact Assessments (1902215)
Frank Ong’ondo, University of Idaho, Earth and Spatial Sciences, Moscow, United States and Meng Zhao, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, United States
 
Escalating Global Drought Hazard: Evidence from Onset to Rebound (1903641)
Thanh Nhan Duc Tran1, Vinh Tran2, Son K. Do1, John B Eylander3, Khuong H Tran4, Sydney Crisanti5, John D Bolten6, Valeriy Yu Ivanov7 and Venkataraman (Venkat) Lakshmi8, (1)University of Virginia, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Charlottesville, VA, United States, (2)University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States, (3)USACE/ERDC/CRREL, Hanover, United States, (4)NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, United States, (5)U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Vicksburg, United States, (6)Hydrological Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt MD, United States, (7)University of Michigan, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (8)University of Virginia, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Charlottesville, United States
 
Contrasting responses of terrestrial water fluxes to drought dominated by transpiration (1904158)
Zeng He and Sha Zhou, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
 
Data Bottlenecks and Algorithmic Lag in AI for Droughts: A Review of 20-Years Worth of Trends (1908588)
Guido Ascenso1, Matteo Giuliani2, Jorge Pérez-Aracil3, Sancho Salcedo-Sanz3, Gustau Camps-Valls4, Claudi Bertini Dr.5, Paolo Bonetti Dr.6, Nora Linscheid7, Martina Merlo2, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres8, Giulio Palcic9, Markus Reichstein7, Andrea Ficchì6, Andrea Toreti10, Andrea Castelletti9, Marcello Restelli6 and Eliot Walt11, (1)Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Naples, Italy, (2)Politecnico di Milano, Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Milano, 20133, Italy, (3)University of Alcalá, Department of Signal Processing and Communication, Alcalá de Henares, Spain, (4)Image Processing Laboratory, Universitat de València, Paterna, Spain, (5)UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, Netherlands, (6)Politecnico di Milano, Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Milano, Italy, (7)Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany, (8)Universidad Carlos III, Department of Signal Theory and Communications, Madrid, Spain, (9)Politecnico di Milano, Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Milano, Italy, (10)European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra Vey, Italy, (11)Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
 
Tracking Drought Over Time from Remote Sensing Data: A Comparative Index-Based Study in Bundelkhand Region, India (1908761)
Hempushpa Sahu, Pradeep Kumar Garg and Saurabh Vijay, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Department of Civil Engineering, Roorkee, India
 
Anthropogenic Climate Change Intensifies Synchronous Droughts Across Indian Rivers (1909927)
Dipesh Singh Chuphal and Vimal Mishra, Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Department of Civil Engineering, Gandhinagar, India
 
Unlocking the drought resilience potential of underutilized agroecological systems: A systematic review (1910548)
Dong-Gill Kim, Kyung Hee University, Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Yongin-si, Gyeonggi-do, South Korea; Hawasa University, Wondo Genet College of Forestry and Natural Resources, Wondo Genet, Ethiopia, Bettina Eichler-Löbermann, University of Rostock, Department of Agronomy and Crop Science, Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Rostock, Germany, Stefan Porembski, University of Rostock, Institute of Biological Sciences, Department of Botany, Rostock, Germany, Federico Roda, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Max Planck Tandem Group in Evolutionary Genomics of Specialized Metabolism, Bogotá, Colombia and Christopher Ngosong, University of Buea, Department of Agronomic and Applied Molecular Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine, Buea, Cameroon
 
Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions intensifies the spatial propagation of drought (1912663)
Juan Liang and Sha Zhou, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
 
A Data-Driven Framework for Streamflow Drought Typing and Driver Identification (1912937)
Corinne Bowers, US Geological Survey, Reston, United States, Jared David Smith, U.S. Geological Survey, Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division, Reston, VA, United States, John Christopher Hammond, U.S. Geological Survey, Maryland-Delaware-DC Water Science Center, Catonsville, United States and Hedeff Essaid, former U.S. Geological Survey, Moffett Field, United States
 
A drought reimagined: Projecting hydrologic shifts of a past drought under future conditions (1916559)
Colin A Penn, USGS New England Water Science Center - Connecticut Office, East Hartford, United States, Katherine Merriman, USGS New York Water Science Center Troy, Troy, United States, Jared David Smith, U.S. Geological Survey, Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division, Reston, VA, United States and Hedeff Essaid, former U.S. Geological Survey, Moffett Field, United States
 
A Pan-European Water Table Depth Anomaly Dataset from 1950 to Present (1919747)
Yueling Ma1, Carsten Montzka1, Bibi S Naz2 and Stefan J Kollet1, (1)Forschungszentrum Jülich, Institute of Bio and Geosciences (Agrosphere, IBG-3), Jülich, Germany, (2)Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, 52425 Jülich, Germany
 
Spatial Assessment of Seasonal Hydrological Drought Risk in Northwestern Bangladesh and Their Implications (1921797)
Golam Morsad, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Buet-Japan Institute of Disaster Prevention and Urban Safety, Dhaka, Bangladesh and Mashfiqus Salehin, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Institute of Water and Flood Management, Dhaka, Bangladesh
 
Tropical Cyclones Unevenly Influence Soil Moisture Droughts (1930977)
Jonghun Kam, POSTECH, Division of Environmental Science and Technology, Pohang, South Korea and Akarsh A, 1Council of Scientific and Industrial Research-National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, India
 
Spatial and Temporal Drought Patterns Derived from Long-term High-Resolution Daily SPI Dataset Over CONUS Using Unsupervised Machine Learning Clustering Algorithms (1931471)
Olivier P Prat1, Iype Eldho1, David Coates1, Scott Wilkins1, Ronald Leeper1, Brian R Nelson2, Michael Shaw3 and Steve Ansari4, (1)Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS), North Carolina State University, Asheville, United States, (2)NOAA Asheville, NCEI/CWC, Asheville, NC, United States, (3)ISciences, LLC, Asheville, United States, (4)NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, United States
 
Hydroclimate Variability Influences on Drought Evolution: A Meteorological-Hydrological Analysis (1933232)
Xuan Zhang1, Jiefeng Wu2, Gaoxu Wang1, Wei Wu1, Dejian Zhang3 and Tian Lan4, (1)Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, China, (2)Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China, (3)Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen, China, (4)Chang'an University, Xi'an, China
 
Observed Decreases in Seasonal Drought across the Northeastern United States (1936308)
Jonathan Winter1, Janelle Wargo2, Erich C Osterberg2 and Justin S Mankin1, (1)Dartmouth College, Department of Geography, Hanover, United States, (2)Dartmouth College, Department of Earth Sciences, Hanover, United States
 
Historical and future changes of global soil moisture drought characteristics in CMIP6 models (1941236)
Aihui Wang, National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application;Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China and Xin MA, Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
 
Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Meteorological Drought in the Yangtze River Basin from A Three‑Dimensional Perspective (1941782)
Xiaojing Yang1, Yuesheng Yan2 and Pingfan Fu1, (1)China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China, (2)China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing, China
 
Historical Droughts over CONUS through the Lens of a Stationary Data-driven Stochastic Emulator (1944382)
Sergey Kravtsov, University of Wisconsin Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, United States and Mohammad Ghadamidehno, PhD Student, Water, Wetland, and Marine Resources Management, School of Freshwater Sciences University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, USA, Milwaukee, United States
 
Streamflow Drought in CONUS, 1951-2024: Characteristics, Trends, and Human Influence (1946537)
Alexa Henny, Environmental Sciences and Engineering UNC Chapel Hill, Durham, NC, UNITED STATES and Tamlin Pavelsky, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Earth, Marine and Environmental Sciences, Chapel Hill, United States
 
Patterns and Trends of Drought Forms in the Southeastern United States (1950274)
Shakirudeen Abimbola Lawal, North Carolina State University Raleigh, Raleigh, NC, United States, Robert Scheller, North Carolina State University, Forestry and Environmental Resources, Raleigh, United States, Frank Koch, USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station, Research Triangle Park, United States, Jennifer K Costanza, NC State University, Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, Raleigh, United States and Robert M. Scheller
 
Reconciling Climate Data with Individual Insights of Climate Variability in Uganda’s Cattle Corridor. A New Strategy to Effective Adaptation (1952408)
Faridah Nalwanga, Jamiat Nanteza and Paul Isolo Mukwaya, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
 
Bivariate modeling of drought severity and duration in a warming climate using copula (1955658)
Suman Dhamala1, Kunal Bhardwaj1, Prakash Khedun2 and Ashok K Mishra3, (1)Clemson University, Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson, SC, United States, (2)Clemson University, Department of Agricultural Sciences, Clemson, United States, (3)Zachry Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, United States
 
Sub-Seasonal Correlations Between Drought and Temperature Extremes (1956551)
Kylie Miller, Cornell University, Ithaca, United States, Samuel Jurado, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States, Jaclyn Hatala Matthes, Harvard Forest, Petersham, United States and Jennifer Marlon, Yale University, School of the Environment, New Haven, United States
 
A Global Probabilistic Framework for Meteorological Drought Risk Assessment Using Self-Calibrating PDSI and Stochastic Simulation (1961495)
Chen Liang1, Zac Flamig2, James P Kossin3 and Edward Joseph Kearns2, (1)First Street Foundation, New York, United States, (2)First Street, New York, United States, (3)NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Center for Weather and Climate, Madison, WI, United States
 
Drought Assessment Using Spectral Remote Sensing Indices in the Central Rift Valley Lakes (1963305)
Mr. Mulugeta Tesema Gedefa, M.Sc., Czech University of Life Sciences, Water Resources, Prague, Czech Republic
 
Decoding Drought Dynamics: A Multi-Method Intercomparison for Event Characterization Across Spatio-Temporal Scales (1969709)
Lisa Nguyen1,2, Qiaoqiao Li1 and Mohammed Ombadi1, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (2)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Applied Physics, Ann Arbor, United States
 
Emerging Global Patterns of Persistent Drying: Unraveling the Roles of Climate Modes and Anthropogenic Forcing (1970774)
Aandishah Samara1, Richard Seager2, Jason E Smerdon2 and jason, (1)Columbia University of New York, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Palisades, NY, United States, (2)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States
 
Understanding the Mechanisms Underlying Vegetation Response During the Early Stage of Flash Drought Development Based on CLM5 (1980061)
Koushan Mohammadi1, Javad Teymoori2, Guiling Wang2, Keith W Oleson3, Peter E Thornton4, Michele Thornton4 and Shih-Chieh Kao5, (1)School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, United States, (2)University of Connecticut, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, United States, (3)Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, United States, (5)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Science Division, Oak Ridge, United States
 
Spatiotemporal Modeling of Drought in the Texas Colorado River Basin, USA (1980083)
Priyanjali Bose, Texas State University San Marcos, Department of Geography & Environmental Studies, San Marcos, United States
 
Streamflow trends and extremes in Patagonia (1980228)
Sarah E Null1, Luis B Epele2, Naihara Oses2, Abby Bushman3 and Curtis Gray4, (1)Utah State University, Department of Watershed Sciences, Logan, UT, United States, (2)Centro de Investigación Esquel de Montaña y Estepa Patagónica, Esquel, Argentina, (3)Utah State University, Logan, United States, (4)Utah State University, Department of Watershed Sciences, Logan, United States
 
Rainfall Signals and Drought Development and Recovery in the Nile Basin (1997737)
Meklit Berihun Melesse, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, United States and Yonas Demissie, Washington State University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pullman, WA, United States
 
Contrasting CESM and ECMWF for Predictive Modeling of Spatial Heterogeneity of Drought Indices Across Two U.S. Hydroclimates (2001344)
Namit Choudhari1, Yasin F Elshorbany2, Benjamin Jacob3 and Jennifer Collins2, (1)University of South Florida Tampa, Tampa, FL, United States, (2)University of South Florida, Tampa, School of Geosciences, Tampa, United States, (3)University of South Florida Tampa, College of Public Health, Tampa, United States
See more of: Hydrology