B033
Ecological Forecasting in the Earth System
Session ID#: 250005
Session Description:
How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future? How do human decisions shape this trajectory? In a world confronted with rapid environmental change, the most pressing biogeoscience questions are fundamentally about forecasting. Thanks to recent advances in data availability, modeling, statistical methods, and decision-support tools, the field is poised for major strides in making processes more predictive at short and long time-scales. A forecasting framework will not only accelerate scientific progress but also enhance the societal relevance, especially when forecasts are co-produced with multidisciplinary collaborators and action-oriented end users. That said, there are many conceptual and technical challenges to making accurate predictions. Furthering forecast development will require improving theories, models, data assimilation, and uncertainty quantification, targeting data deficiencies, and improving the applicability of forecasts in decision-making. This session highlights theoretical, methodological, and application-based research on forecasting biogeoscience and ecology across terrestrial and aquatic systems.
Co-Sponsor(s):
Index Terms:
0414 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
0430 Computational methods and data processing [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
0480 Remote sensing [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
0485 Science policy [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
Primary Convener: Tong Qiu, Duke University, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, NC, United States
Convener: Michael Dietze, Boston University, Boston, United States
Student/Early Career Convener: Dr. Abigail Lewis, PhD, Virginia Tech, Biological Sciences, Blacksburg, United States
Using National Forest Inventory Data to Advance Carbon Cycle Model-Data Assimilation (1873442)
Cameron Webb, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States, Michael Dietze, Boston University, Boston, United States, Dongchen Zhang, Boston University, Department of Earth and Environment, Boston, MA, United States, Margaret Evans, University of Arizona, Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, Tucson, United States and Kelly Heilman, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, St Paul, United States
Improving NEE and LE Estimates Across North America: A Hybrid Data Assimilation + Machine Learning Approach to Gap-Filling, Model Bias Correction, and Downscaling (1879655)
Yang Gu, Boston University, Earth and Environment, Boston, United States, Michael Dietze, Boston University, Boston, United States and Dongchen Zhang, Boston University, Department of Earth and Environment, Boston, MA, United States
Mapping the North American Terrestrial Carbon Cycle: a Process-based Reanalysis Using State Data Assimilation (SDA) (1888266)
Dongchen Zhang1, Qianyu Li2, Zhenpeng Zuo1, Cameron Webb3, Dr. Shawn Serbin, BA, MS, PhD4 and Michael Dietze5, (1)Boston University, Department of Earth and Environment, Boston, MA, United States, (2)Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, (3)Boston University, Boston, MA, United States, (4)Brookhaven National Laboratory, Environmental Science and Technologies Department, Upton, United States, (5)Boston University, Boston, United States
High resolution mapping of Mormon cricket with a Bayesian spatiotemporal species distribution model (1903156)
Di Wu1, Guofeng Cao2, Robert Srygley3 and Guiye Li1, (1)University of Colorado at Boulder, Geography, Boulder, United States, (2)University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, United States, (3)USDA ARS, Sidney, United States
A Cohort-Based Carbon Reanalysis Across the CONUS NEON Sites Using PEcAn+LPJ-GUESS (1912796)
Yinghao Sun, Boston University, Department of Earth and Environment, Boston, United States, Michael Dietze, Boston University, Boston, United States, Hannah Grady, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United States, Jason S McLachlan, University of Notre Dame, Department of Biological Sciences, Notre Dame, United States, Istem Fer, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland, Matthew Forrest, Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Frankfurt/Main, Germany and Dongchen Zhang, Boston University, Department of Earth and Environment, Boston, MA, United States
Long-term Ecological Studies Must Continue: Insights From a Dryland Transition Zone (1926385)
Prof. Rodrigo Vargas, Arizona State University, Tempe, United States, Van Huong Le, University of Delaware, Plant and Soil Sciences, Newark, DE, United States and Scott L Collins, Department of Biology, MSC03-2020, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, United States
Testing Probabilistic Visualization Designs and Their Impacts on Agricultural Decision Making (1969886)
Snehalata Sainjoo1, Apoorva Joshi1, Jennifer Kennedy2, Michael Gerst2 and Dr. Melissa A Kenney, PhD1, (1)University of Minnesota, Institute on the Environment, St. Paul, United States, (2)University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States
