H034
Advancing the Use of Hydroclimatic Forecasts for Water Resources Decision-Making
Session ID#: 250134
Session Description:
Advances in hydroclimatic forecasting, including short-term, sub-seasonal, and seasonal forecasts, can support more effective water resources management, climate adaptation, and resilience to extreme events. However, forecast use in the water sector remains limited when forecasts are not aligned with information needs and institutional contexts, or when benefits and risks are poorly understood by decision-makers. While emerging tools such as machine learning offer exciting opportunities to enhance forecast skill, their increasing complexity may widen the gap between technical potential and societal benefit, particularly if outputs are not transparent, interpretable, or aligned with decision-makers’ needs. This session brings together communities of practice and researchers to discuss interdisciplinary perspectives on using forecasts in water resources decision-making. Topics may include advances in forecast accuracy and timeliness, uncertainty quantification, communication, usability, and co-production of forecasts. We also welcome contributions on integrating forecasts into real-world planning and institutional arrangements that support adaptive use of hydroclimatic information.
Co-Sponsor(s):
Index Terms:
1833 Hydroclimatology [HYDROLOGY]
1880 Water management [HYDROLOGY]
1922 Forecasting [INFORMATICS]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES & PUBLIC ISSUES]
Primary Convener: Majid Shafiee-Jood, University of Virginia, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Charlottesville, United States
Conveners: Paul Block, University of Wisconsin Madison, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States, Hamid Moradkhani, The University of Alabama, Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research, Tuscaloosa, United States and David W Watkins Jr, Michigan Technological University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Houghton, United States
Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) for the future: Exploring climate extremes and evolving forecast skill with large-sample synthetic forecasting (1861262)
Zachary Brodeur1, Mahdi Erfani2, Kyla Semmendinger Raney2, Chris Delaney3, Jonathan D Herman4 and Scott Steinschneider5, (1)Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States, (2)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, United States, (3)Sonoma County Water Agency, Santa Rosa, United States, (4)University of California Davis, Davis, United States, (5)Cornell University, Ithaca, United States
From reservoir inflow prediction to increasing hydropower generation: a Machine Learning-based FIRO strategy in Southern Africa (1880131)
Matteo Giuliani1, Wenjin Hao2, Wyatt Arnold3, Andrea Ficchì3 and Andrea Castelletti3, (1)Politecnico di Milano, Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Milano, 20133, Italy, (2)Politecnico di Milano, Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Milano, 20133, Italy, (3)Politecnico di Milano, Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Milano, Italy
Reservoir Operation for Drought Mitigation Using Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Forecasts (1880650)
Anav Vora, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Urbana, United States, Xumin Li, University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College PARK, United States and Ximing Cai, University of Illinois, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Urbana, United States
Development of machine-learning models characterizing and predicting dengue cases in Colombia to guide anticipatory actions (1900569)
Yi Xu1, Max Beal2 and Paul Block1, (1)University of Wisconsin Madison, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States, (2)University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, WI, United States
Hydroclimate Projection Methods at Multiple Time Scales for Sustainable Water Resources Management on Colorado River Basin (Invited) (1903324)
Balaji Rajagopalan, Univ Colorado, Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, United States, Catalina Jerez, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, United States and David Woodson, University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, Boulder, CO, United States; Bureau of Reclamation Denver, Denver, United States
Reservoir Storage Forecasting in the Southern United States Using Machine Learning (1924285)
Deep Shah1, Shuai Zhang1, Shraddhanand Shukla2, Nelun Fernando3, John Zhu3, Xiaoyu Ma4, Dennis P. Lettenmaier4 and Huilin Gao1, (1)Texas A&M University, Zachry Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College Station, United States, (2)University of California Santa Barbara, Climate Hazards Center, Geography Department, Santa Barbara, United States, (3)Texas Water Development Board, Water Availability, Austin, TX, United States, (4)University of California Los Angeles, Department of Geography, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Enhancing Interannual Water Supply Forecasts of Colorado River Basin Using National Multi-Model Ensembles and Machine Learning Techniques (1936119)
Catalina Jerez, University of Colorado Boulder, Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, Boulder, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, United States, Balaji Rajagopalan, Univ Colorado, Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, United States, Emerson LaJoie, Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, MD, United States, Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, United States, Sarah Ann Baker, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, United States, Seth Shanahan, Southern Nevada Water Authority, Las Vegas, NV, United States, William P Miller, NOAA, Boulder, United States and Edith A Zagona, University of Colorado Boulder, Civil Environmental & Architectural Engineering, Boulder, United States
Developing a Community Testbed for Seasonal Water Supply Forecasting in the Western U.S. (1949376)
Josh Sturtevant, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, United States, Andy Wood, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, United States, Chris Frans, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, United States and Ian M Ferguson, US Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO, United States
Leveraging season-ahead forecasts triggered by the Aleutian Low pressure system to advance hydrologic disaster preparedness (1952094)
Kylie Southard, University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, WI, United States, Paul Block, University of Wisconsin Madison, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States and Juan Bazo, Red Cross Climate Centre, Lima, Peru
A Multi-Indicator Approach to Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting in Snow-Dominated Watersheds of the Intermountain West (1953543)
Reza Morovati, Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States and David G Tarboton, Utah State University, Utah Water Research Laboratory, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Logan, UT, United States
Developing the Hydropower Drought Severity Index: Nonparametric Seasonal Assessment for Water-Energy Resource Adequacy (1954948)
Goutam Konapala1, Nathalie Voisin1, Cameron Bracken1, Youngjun Son2 and Vincent Tidwell1, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States, (2)Georgia Institute of Technology, Ocean Science and Engineering, Atlanta, United States
Revisiting the Runoff Puzzle: Integrating Seasonal Forecasts and Hydrologic Data to Explore Improvements in Colorado River Water Supply Forecasts (1960043)
William Ryan Currier1, Darren L Jackson2, Patrick Kormos3, Emerson LaJoie4, Matthew Rosencrans5, Angus Graham Goodbody6 and Mimi Abel1, (1)NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (2)University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)NRCS, National Water and Climate Center, Salt Lake City, United States, (4)Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, MD, United States, (5)NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, United States, (6)Natural Resource Conservation Service, Portland, United States
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting in Colorado’s Yampa River Basin Using WRF-Hydro with LSTM Enhancement (1969187)
Qian Cao1, Page Weil2, Andy Rossi3, Emily Lowell3, Mu Xiao1, Yuan Yang4, Lu Su1 and Ming Pan5, (1)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States, (2)LRE Water, Denver, United States, (3)Upper Yampa Water Conservancy District, Steamboat Springs, United States, (4)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, United States, (5)Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, United States
Quantifying the Local and Economic Value of Hydrometeorological Forecasts in Support of Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) (1998302)
Denali Pinto, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States; University of California San Diego, La Jolla, United States, Thomas Corringham, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States, F Martin Ralph, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, United States, Sarah Ogle, Carleton College, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Northfield, CA, United States, Cary Talbot, US Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, United States, Elissa Yeates, US Army Corps of Engineers, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Vicksburg, United States, Donald R Nelson, University of Georgia, Department of Anthropology, Institute for Resilient Infrastructure Systems, Athens, GA, United States and Marshall Shepherd, The University of Georgia, Athens, United States
Advanced precipitation post-processing integrating enhanced representation of extreme events for more reliable forecast-informed reservoir operations (2000109)
Gi-Hyeon Park1, Yu Zhang2, Nasrin Attar3 and Chris Turnipseed1, (1)Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, United States, (2)University of Texas at Arlington, Department of Civil Engineering, Arlington, TX, United States, (3)University of Texas at Arlington, Department of Civil Engineering, Arlington, United States
Prioritizing Sites for Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) Within the US Army Corps of Engineers: Results of the FIRO Screening Process to Date (2000538)
Cary Alan Talbot, Engineer Research and Development Center, US Army Corps of Engineers, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Vicksburg, United States, Elissa Yeates, US Army Corps of Engineers, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Vicksburg, United States, Joseph Forbis, US Army Corps of Engineers, Sacramento, United States, Eric Jay Shearer, US Army Engineer and Research Development Center, Coastal & Hydraulics Lab, Vicksburg, United States, Caitline Barber, Eastern Research Group, Inc., Lexington, United States, Natalie Rodman, Eastern Research Group, Inc., Concord, United States and Arleen ODonnell, Eastern Research Group, Inc, Lexington, United States
Determining Reservoir Tolerance to Forecast Errors in the Southwest U.S. in Support of the Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) Screening Process (2004124)
Eric Jay Shearer, US Army Engineer and Research Development Center, Coastal & Hydraulics Lab, Vicksburg, United States, Rachel R Weihs, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, Tyler Roberts, US Army Engineer and Research Development Center, Coastal & Hydraulics Lab, Vicskburg, United States, Elissa Yeates, US Army Corps of Engineers, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Vicksburg, United States, Joseph Forbis, US Army Corps of Engineers, Sacramento, United States, Christine Albano, Desert Research Institute, Reno, United States, Cary Talbot, US Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, United States and Marty Ralph, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States
