Models, Observations, and Data Assimilation for Orbital Space Weather Forecasting

Bukowski, Aaron

SA016
Models, Observations, and Data Assimilation for Orbital Space Weather Forecasting

Session ID#: 250365

Session Description:

Geospace is defined as the region of space delineated by the interaction of the magnetosphere and upper atmosphere with the solar wind, encompassing both orbital and cis-lunar space. The rapidly increasing number of operational satellites and space debris in geospace, particularly in Low Earth Orbit, requires improved forecasting models to ensure the safety and sustainability of human exploration and satellite operations. This session focuses on improving nowcasts and forecasts of the geospace environment through developments in theory, numerical simulation and empirical models, observations, data assimilation, machine learning and other techniques that merge models and data. We invite presentations on physics-based and data-driven modeling of the geospace system, theoretical aspects of this system and its interaction with solar outputs; existing, new, or planned space weather observations, both space- and ground-based; as well as methods to improve nowcasting and forecasting of geospace variability through data assimilation and development of machine learning models.

Co-Sponsor(s):

SM - SPA-Magnetospheric Physics

Index Terms:

2447 Modeling and forecasting [IONOSPHERE]
2722 Forecasting [MAGNETOSPHERIC PHYSICS]
7924 Forecasting [SPACE WEATHER]
7974 Solar effects [SPACE WEATHER]

Primary Convener: Aaron Bukowski, University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States

Conveners: Jeffrey P Thayer, University of Colorado Boulder, Ann and H.J. Smead Department of Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Boulder, United States, Thomas E Berger, University of Colorado, Space Weather Technology, Research, and Education Center, Boulder, United States and Pauline Marie Dredger, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States

High-resolution Physics-based Model of the Middle and High Latitude Ionosphere: AROTHRON – ARctic Over-The-Horizon Radar ONtic Model (1851064)

James Vincent Eccles, Space Dynamics Laboratory, North Logan, United States, John Michael Retterer, Boston College, Institute for Scientific Research, Chestnut Hill, MA, United States and Jeffrey Holmes, Air Force Research Laboratory, Space Vehicles Directorate, Kirtland AFB, United States

Transparent Predictive Modelling of Radiation Belt Electron Fluxes Using Nonlinear System Identification and Machine Learning Techniques (1862728)

Hua-Liang Wei¹, Michael A Balikhin² and Richard Boynton², (1)University of Sheffield, Dept Automatic Control & Systems Engineering, School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Sheffield, United Kingdom, (2)University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10, United Kingdom

Balancing Seasonal and Local Time Dependencies for ML-Based Sporadic-E Occurrence Prediction (1863518)

Dae-Kyu Shin, Kyucheol Choi, Seung Jun Oh and Yongha Kim, SELab, Inc., Seoul, South Korea

Introducing Reflected GNSS TEC Data into ANCHOR Ionospheric Data Assimilation Model (1879426)

Brenna Royersmith¹, Victoriya Forsythe², Meghan Burleigh³, Brian Breitsch⁴ and Jade Morton⁴, (1)University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, United States, (2)U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, United States, (3)Naval Research Laboratory, District of Columbia, United States, (4)University of Colorado Boulder, Ann and H.J. Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Boulder, United States

Correcting Empirical Model Densities During Geomagnetic Storms Using Commonly Available Two-Line Element Orbital Data (1885910)

Henry Christiansen and Aaron J Ridley, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States

Quantifying atmospheric density and orbital attenuation during geomagnetic storms based on Swarm-C (1887425)

Xiaoyu Bian and Cunying Xiao, Beijing Normal University, School of Physics and Astronomy, Beijing, China

Assessing Modeled High‑Latitude Ionospheric Electrodynamics Using DMSP Observations (1892749)

Sreelakshmi Jayaraman, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, United States, Aaron Bukowski, University of Texas at Dallas, W. B. Hanson Center for Space Science, Richardson, TX, United States, Aaron J Ridley, Univ Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States and Tuija I Pulkkinen, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States

Optimal Binary Prediction of Solar Flares: Probabilistic Theory and Empirical Results (Invited) (1899279)

Victor Verma, Stilian Stoev and Yang Chen, University of Michigan, Department of Statistics, Ann Arbor, United States

Investigating the Role of Thermospheric Tides in Modulating Pre-Reversal Enhancement Variability Using Coupled Whole Atmosphere and Electrodynamo Models (Invited) (1899666)

Garima Malhotra, University of Colorado at Boulder, CIRES, Boulder, United States, Timothy J Fuller-Rowell, Univ of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, United States, Astrid I Maute, University of Colorado, Boulder, CIRES, Boulder, United States, Svetlana Karol, Space Weather Prediction Center, NOAA, Boulder, United States and Adam Kubaryk, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States

Impact of sudden stratospheric warming on satellite reentry predictions during solar minimum (1901608)

Jia Yue, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, United States, Sean Bruinsma, CNES, Toulouse, France, Jack Wang, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, United States, Nicholas M Pedatella, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, United States, Wandi Yu, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, United States and Maria M Kuznetsova, NASA/GSFC, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, United States

Impact of Assimilating GOLD Disk Observations on Thermospheric Neutral Density (Invited) (1905223)

Fazlul I Laskar, LASP/University of Colorado, Boulder, United States, Nicholas M Pedatella, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, United States, Richard Eastes, University of Colorado at Boulder, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Boulder, United States, Mihail Codrescu, Vector Space LLC, Boulder, United States, Jeffrey L Anderson, NCAR, Boulder, United States, Noah Peterson, University of Colorado at Boulder, SWxTREC, Boulder, United States and Thomas E Berger, University of Colorado, Space Weather Technology, Research, and Education Center, Boulder, United States

Delivering Near Real-Time Space Weather Observations: The I-ALiRT Cloud Architecture and International Ground Station Integration for IMAP (1910165)

Laura Sandoval¹, Eric R Christian², Christina O Lee³, Kristopher William Larsen¹, Matthew Bourque¹, Jenny Knuth¹, Greg Lucas¹, Tori Marbois¹, Melissa Mantey¹, Dan Matlin⁴, David J McComas⁵, Evan J Smith⁴, Drew L. Turner⁴ and Bradley Williams⁶, (1)Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Boulder, United States, (2)NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (3)University of California Berkeley, Space Sciences Laboratory, Berkeley, United States, (4)Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, United States, (5)Princeton University, Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton, United States, (6)NASA Headquarters, Washington, United States

Starlink Satellite Re-entries in the Context of Increasing Solar Activity During Solar Cycle 25 (1911251)

Denny M. Oliveira, Eftyhia Zesta and Katherine Garcia-Sage, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States

Model Assessment of Thermospheric Neutral Density Variability: From Quiet to Storm-Time Conditions (1918381)

Jack Wang^1,2, Jia Yue^1,2, Sean Bruinsma³, Joseph Sypal¹, Masha Kuznetsova⁴, Richard Mullinix⁵, Chiu Wiegand⁵, Christian Siemes⁶, Sophie Laurens⁷, Min-Yang Chou^1,4, Paul Dimarzio¹ and Maksym Petrenko⁸, (1)Catholic University of America, Washington, United States, (2)Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Silver Spring, United States, (3)CNES, Toulouse, France, (4)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, United States, (5)Community Coordinated Modeling Center, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States, (6)Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands, (7)GET-CNES, OMP, Toulouse, France, (8)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States

Sensitivity of Storm-Time Ionosphere–Thermosphere Response to Solar Irradiance (1925893)

Simin Zhang, Colorado University Boulder, Boulder, CO, UNITED STATES, Liying Qian, National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, United States, Nicholas M Pedatella, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, United States, Noah Peterson, University of Colorado at Boulder, SWxTREC, Boulder, United States, Eric K Sutton, University of Colorado at Boulder, Space Weather Technology, Research, and Education Center, Boulder, United States and Thomas Berger, University of Colorado Space Weather Technology, Research, and Education Center, Boulder, United States

Evaluating the Climatological Behavior of NSF NCAR TIEGCM Over the 2014-2024 Solar Cycle (1927477)

Jordi Vila-Perez¹, Kevin H Pham², Haonan Wu¹, Martina Salichs³, Antonio Hernandez⁴ and Wenbin Wang¹, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez, Physics, Mayaguez, United States, (4)Front Range Community College, Longmont, United States

Forecasting Total Electron Content During Geomagnetic Storms Using Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory(ConvLSTM) : Performance and Limitations (1933879)

Se-Heon Jeong¹, Hyosub Kil², Woo Kyoung Lee³, Jeong-Heon Kim³ and Young-Sil Kwak³, (1)KASI Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, United States, (3)Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon, South Korea

Filling in the global MHD model gap region: Enabling predictions of magnetic field perturbations at Low-Earth Orbit (1957027)

Sofía Burne¹, Martin Owain Archer¹, Michael Heyns², Adrian LaMoury³, David J Southwood⁴, Jeremy Chittenden² and Jonathan P Eastwood², (1)Imperial College London, London, SW7, United Kingdom, (2)Imperial College London, Physics, London, United Kingdom, (3)Imperial College London, Physics, London, SW7, United Kingdom, (4)Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom

AI Challenge for Satellite Tracking and Orbit Resilience Modeling (STORM-AI): Dataset, Design, and Results (1958313)

Sergio Sanchez-Hurtado¹, Haley E. Solera², William Parker², Robin Mia Tian², Ruoxi Qian², Edenna Chen², Enrico M. Zucchelli², Rasyid Ridha³, Dominic Bruno⁴, Christopher Yeung⁴, Justin Gmys⁴, Binh Tran⁴, Cihat Emre Çeliker⁵, Victor Rodriguez-Fernandez¹, Morgan Mitchell⁶, Jonathan P. How², Giovanni Lavezzi² and Richard Linares², (1)Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Department of Computer Systems Engineering, Madrid, Spain, (2)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Cambridge, United States, (3)Independent Researcher, Team Bimasakti, Jakarta, Indonesia, (4)Millennial Software, Team Millennial-IUP, Chantilly, United States, (5)Independent Researcher, Team Cteceliker, Burdur, Turkey, (6)AI Accelerator, Department of the Air Force, Cambridge, United States

Advancements in Modeling the Ionosphere-Thermosphere System’s Response to Extreme Geomagnetic Storms (1961124)

Aaron Bukowski¹, Aaron J Ridley², Chen Wu³ and Sreelakshmi Jayaraman¹, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, United States, (2)Univ Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States, (3)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States

Comparative Evaluation of Thermospheric Density Models Using the Satellite Observations (1962941)

Jeong-Heon Kim¹, Young-Sil Kwak², Yongha Kim³, Geonhwa Jee⁴, In-Sun Song⁵, Woo Kyoung Lee² and Tae-Yong Yang², (1)KASI Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon, South Korea, (3)Chungnam National University, Daejeon, South Korea, (4)Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon, South Korea, (5)Yonsei University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seoul, South Korea

Using GOLD Data to Improve the GITM Upper Atmosphere Simulation (1971774)

Aaron J Ridley, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, Reid Schmaltz, University of Michigan, Climate and Space, Ann Arbor, United States and Aaron Bukowski, University of Texas at Dallas, W. B. Hanson Center for Space Science, Richardson, TX, United States

The DYNAMIC-X Mission (1974071)

V Lynn Harvey, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States and Scott Martin Bailey, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, United States

Modeling the Gannon Superstorm with M3SDA (1975462)

Anastasia Newheart¹, Scott Thaller², Rachel Stutz¹, Ian Collett¹, Jeff Steward³, Joseph Hughes⁴, Camella Nasr¹, John Noto¹ and Walter 'Junk' Wilson¹, (1)Orion Space Solutions, Louisville, United States, (2)University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Data Assimilation Research Section, Boulder, United States, (4)NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, United States

DYNAMIC - A Mission Concept to Advance Our Understanding of Orbital Space Weather (1979601)

Tomoko Matsuo¹, Larisa P Goncharenko², Olga P Verkhoglyadova³, Jeng-Hwa Yee⁴, Larry J Paxton⁴, Brian Drouin³, Clayton Cantrall⁴, Katrina Bossert⁵, Mark Conde⁶, Hanli Liu⁷, Sebastijan Mrak⁴ and Jens Oberheide⁸, (1)Ann and H.J. Smead Department of Aerospace Engineering Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, United States, (2)MIT Haystack Observatory, Westford, United States, (3)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, United States, (4)Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, United States, (5)Arizona State University, Tempe, United States, (6)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States, (7)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (8)Clemson University, Clemson, United States

Assessing the Impact of Ground-Based Wind Measurements on Mesospheric and Lower Thermospheric Weather Through Assimilation in a Whole Atmosphere Model (1980264)

Chih Ting Hsu, Institute of Space Science National Central University, Jhongli, Taiwan, Nicholas M Pedatella, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, United States, Alex Chartier, Applied Physics Laboratory Johns Hopkins, Laurel, United States, Fabrizio Sassi, Naval Research Lab DC, Washington, United States and Guiping Liu, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, ITM Physics Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD, United States

Efforts Toward a Thermospheric Reanalysis during Storm-Time through Coupled Ionosphere-Thermosphere Data Assimilation (1981058)

Nicholas Dietrich, University of Colorado at Boulder, Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Boulder, United States and Tomoko Matsuo, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, United States

Progress Update on The Next Generation of Flare Irradiance Spectral Models, FISM-3 and FISM-OP (1983748)

Phillip C Chamberlin¹, Shah Bahauddin¹, Thomas Berger², Bennet Schwab³ and Edward Thiemann³, (1)Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)University of Colorado Space Weather Technology, Research, and Education Center, Boulder, United States, (3)University of Colorado Boulder, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Boulder, United States

The DAPHNE DYNAMIC mission (1989416)

Aimee W Merkel¹, Brian J Harding², Shannon Curry³, William E McClintock⁴, Scott Alan Budzien⁵, Sharon Vadas⁶, Nicholas M Pedatella⁷, Erich Becker⁶, McArthur Jones Jr⁸, Manbharat Dhadly⁹, Ruth Segal Lieberman¹⁰, Liying Qian¹¹, Xian Lu¹², Scott E Palo¹³, Joseph Huba¹⁴, J. Scott Evans¹⁵, Chihoko Y Cullens¹⁶, Quan Gan⁴, Richard Eastes⁴, Michael H Stevens¹⁷, Greg Holsclaw¹⁸ and Alan Hoskins¹⁸, (1)Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)University of California, Berkeley, Space Sciences Laboratory, Berkeley, United States, (3)University of Colorado Boulder, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Boulder, United States, (4)University of Colorado at Boulder, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Boulder, United States, (5)US Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC, United States, (6)NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, United States, (7)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, United States, (8)University of Colorado at Boulder, Broomfield, United States, (9)US Naval Research Laboratory, Space Science Division, Washington DC, United States, (10)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (11)National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, United States, (12)Clemson University, Physics and Astronomy, Clemson, SC, United States, (13)University of Colorado Boulder, Ann and H.J. Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (14)Syntek Technologies Inc, Fairfax, United States, (15)Computational Physics, Inc., Springfield, United States, (16)University of California Berkeley, Space Sciences Laboratory, Berkeley, United States, (17)Computational Physics Inc. Springfield, Springfield, United States, (18)Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, United States

Characterizing Altitude Kernels for SuperDARN Wind Products for Data Assimilation (2000111)

Ryan Poffenbarger¹, Rafael Luiz Araujo de Mesquita², Alex Chartier³, Nicholas M Pedatella⁴, Hanli Liu⁴, Brian J Harding⁵ and Maya Kirshtein³, (1)Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD, United States, (2)Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, United States, (3)Applied Physics Laboratory Johns Hopkins, Laurel, United States, (4)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, United States, (5)University of California, Berkeley, Space Sciences Laboratory, Berkeley, United States

Long-Term Environment and Anomaly Forecast – Geomagnetic Field (LEAF-GMF) (2000671)

Brett Anne McCuen, Aerospace Corporation Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States and T. Paul O'Brien, The Aerospace Corporation, Chantilly, United States

Machine Learning Forecasting of Thermospheric Neutral Density Using 3D Ionospheric Electron Densities (2002606)

George A Hajj¹, Yuliya Marchetti², Olga P Verkhoglyadova³, Attila Komjathy³, Siddharth Krishnamoorthy⁴ and Umaa Rebbapragada⁵, (1)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, (3)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, United States, (4)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, (5)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Machine Learning and Instrument Autonomy, Pasadena, United States

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SA016 Models, Observations, and Data Assimilation for Orbital Space Weather Forecasting

Session Description:

Co-Sponsor(s):

Index Terms:

SA016
Models, Observations, and Data Assimilation for Orbital Space Weather Forecasting