V029
Shaping the Future of Volcanic Hazard Monitoring and Forecasting
Session ID#: 251336
Session Description:
Volcanic hazard understanding is evolving rapidly thanks to breakthroughs in satellite Earth observation, physics-based simulations, and artificial intelligence. This session focuses on forward-looking strategies that integrate multi-source data, real-time monitoring, and advanced modeling to anticipate the dynamics and impacts of eruptions. We invite contributions that address uncertainty quantification, improve hazard forecasting, and support timely decision-making through innovative approaches. Emphasis is placed on cross-disciplinary methods that couple remote sensing with machine learning, probabilistic frameworks, and impact assessment tools. We particularly encourage submissions that demonstrate operational or near-real-time applications, scenario-based forecasting, and integration of diverse datastreams from ground-based and orbital platforms. The session aims to highlight advances that are redefining how we detect, interpret, and respond to volcanic activity. By fostering collaboration across geophysics, computer science, and risk management, we seek to build a next-generation framework for volcanic hazard anticipation, response, and long-term resilience in the face of increasingly complex global challenges.
Co-Sponsor(s):
Index Terms:
1942 Machine learning [INFORMATICS]
4314 Mathematical and computer modeling [NATURAL HAZARDS]
8485 Remote sensing of volcanoes [VOLCANOLOGY]
8488 Volcanic hazards and risks [VOLCANOLOGY]
Primary Convener: Claudia Corradino, INGV - National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Etna Volcano Observatory, Sezione di Catania, Catania, Italy
Conveners: Michael S Ramsey, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Geology and Environmental Science, Pittsburgh, PA, United States, Alessandro La Spina, INGV - National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Etna Volcano Observatory, Catania, Italy and James Oliver Thompson, The University of Texas at Austin, Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, United States
Student/Early Career Convener: Giovanni Salvatore Di Bella, INGV - National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Etna Volcano Observatory, Catania, Italy
VIGIA-PlumeNet and VIGIA-PlumeData: Open-Source AI Segmenting Tool For Volcanic Plumes From Monitoring Ground Cameras, with its Open-Source Worldwide Training Dataset (1857058)
Sophie Giffard-Roisin1, Thomas Wilkes2, Sebastien Valade3, Freddy Vasconez4, Emily Ramos4, Robin Campion3 and Yves Moussallam5, (1)Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States, (2)University of Sheffield, School of Geography and Planning, Sheffield, United Kingdom, (3)National Autonomous University of Mexico, Ciudad DE Armería, Mexico, (4)Instituto Geofísico de la Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador, (5)Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, New York, NY, United States
Detecting Volcanic Deformation in Hawaiʻi Using Trustworthy Multimodal Deep Learning Techniques (1869075)
Tyler Grant Paladino1, Emily K. Montgomery-Brown1, Michael P Poland2, Marco Bagnardi1 and R. Lopaka Lee3, (1)USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, United States, (2)USGS, Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, United States, (3)USGS Advanced Research Computing, Lakewood, United States
Accounting for volume uncertainty in modeling the size of volcanic eruptions (1889178)
Salvatore Ferrara1, Jacopo Selva2, Jacopo Natale3 and Warner Marzocchi1,2, (1)Scuola Superiore Meridionale, Modeling and Engineering Risk and Complexity, Naples, Italy, (2)University of Naples Federico II, Department of Earth, Environmental, and Resources Sciences, Naples, Italy, (3)University of Bari Aldo Moro, Department of Earth and Geo-environmental Sciences, Bari, Italy
3D Reconstruction of Topographic Changes on Volcanoes from High-Resolution Multi-Angular SAR Imagery (1889764)
Arthur Hauck1, Thibaud Ehret2, Raphael Grandin1, Gabriele Facciolo3 and Fidel Costa Rodriguez1, (1)Université Paris Cité, IPGP, Paris, France, (2)AMIAD, Pôle Recherche, Paris, France, (3)Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, ENS Paris-Saclay, Centre Borelli, Paris, France
Data assimilation in volcanic deformation at Mount Ontake (1906843)
Shungo Tonoyama1, Atsushi Suzuki2, Yutaro Shigemitsu3, Kengo Nakajima4 and Takemasa Miyoshi2, (1)RIKEN Center for Interdisciplinary Theoretical and Mathematical Sciences, Kobe, Japan, (2)RIKEN Center for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan, (3)JAXA Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Tsukuba, Japan, (4)The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
VICTOR – A new Cyber-infrastructure for Volcanology (1960688)
Sylvain J Charbonnier1, Einat Lev2, Samuel Krasnoff3, Abani K Patra4, Charles Connor5 and Amelia Mullins2, (1)University of South Florida Tampa, Geosciences, Tampa, FL, United States, (2)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, (3)Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, (4)Tufts University, Data Intensive Sciences Center, Medford, United States, (5)University of South Florida, School of Geosciences, Tampa, United States
Modeling the Spatiotemporal Changes in Volcanic Ash Composition from Space using Thermal Emission Spectroscopy (1974343)
Daniel Williams1, Alicia Hull2, Michael S Ramsey1 and Vincent J Realmuto3, (1)University of Pittsburgh, Department of Geology and Environmental Science, Pittsburgh, PA, United States, (2)University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, United States, (3)JPL, Pasadena, United States
X-Band Radar Mapping of Lava Flows Provides a Framework for Other Natural Hazard Applications (1977127)
Que Hayes1, Brie D Corsa1, Michael Zoeller2, Ryan Cassotto3 and Kristy French Tiampo1, (1)University of Colorado at Boulder, CIRES, Department of Geological Sciences, Boulder, United States, (2)USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, Hilo, United States, (3)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, United States
User-centered Approaches for U. S. Geological Survey Next-generation Volcano Hazard Assessments (1979611)
Beth A Bartel1, Jessica L Ball2, Mary Benage1, Sarah E Ogburn3, Heather Michelle Nicholson Wright4, David E Damby5, David W Ramsey6, Natalia Irma Deligne7, Hannah R Dietterich8 and Joe Bard9, (1)USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, WA, United States, (2)University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, United States, (3)USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouer, WA, United States, (4)USGS, Baltimore, MD, United States, (5)USGS California Volcano Observatory, Moffett Field, CA, United States, (6)USGS, Volcano Science Center, Vancouver, United States, (7)Institute Geological & Nuclear Sciences, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, (8)U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Science Center, Alaska Volcano Observatory, Anchorage, United States, (9)USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, United States
Global Monitoring and Precursory Eruption Detection: Application of Convolutional Neural Networks to the ASTER Thermal Infrared Volcanic Archive (1981127)
Sophie Pailot - Bonnétat, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, United States, Claudia Corradino, INGV - National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Etna Volcano Observatory, Catania, Italy, Michael S Ramsey, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Geology and Environmental Science, Pittsburgh, PA, United States, James Oliver Thompson, The University of Texas at Austin, Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, United States and Evan Collins, University of Pittsburgh, Geology and Environmental Science, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
Volcanic eruption forecasts through seismic data assimilation and seismic pattern recognition: The 2023 Paroxysms of Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska (Invited) (1991534)
Társilo Girona1,2, David Fee1, Vanesa Burgos3, Matthew M Haney4, John A Power5 and Taryn M Lopez6, (1)Alaska Volcano Observatory, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States, (2)Geosciences Barcelona, Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain, (3)Centro Geofísico de Canarias, Instituto Geográfico Nacional, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Spain, (4)U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Volcano Observatory, Anchorage, AK, United States, (5)USGS Alaska Volcano Observatory, Anchorage, United States, (6)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, United States
Monitoring Volcanic Emissions from Geostationary Orbit with the UV Satellite Constellation (1997634)
Simon A Carn1, Can Li2, Nickolay Anatoly Krotkov2 and Bradford L Fisher3, (1)Michigan Technological University, Department of Geological and Mining Engineering & Sciences, Houghton, MI, United States, (2)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States, (3)SSAI, Greenbelt, United States
Anticipating Volcanic Eruptions in Real-Time: Collaborative Monitoring Campaigns at Poás Volcano, Costa Rica (1998595)
Einat Lev1, Terry A Plank2, Conor Bacon3, Maarten J de Moor4, Geoffroy Avard4, Leo van der Laat5 and participants of the AVERT Poás workshops, (1)Columbia University of New York, Palisades, United States, (2)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, (3)Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Seismology, Geology, and Tectonophysics, Palisades, United States, (4)Observatorio Vulcanológico y Sismológico de Costa Rica, Heredia, Costa Rica, (5)OVSICORI-UNA, Volcanology, San Jose, Costa Rica
The 2021 and 2022 Lahar Activity on Volcán de Fuego: Rainfall Control on Lahar Behavior (2001487)
Gustavo Bejar, Michigan Technological University, Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Houghton, MI, United States, Rudiger P Escobar-Wolf, Michigan Technological Univ., Houghton, MI, United States, Gregory P Waite, Michigan Technological University, Geological & Mining Engineering & Sciences, Houghton, MI, United States and Jerry Mock, Boise State University, Department of Geosciences, Boise, ID, United States
