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Session Proposal: Integrated SSP-RCP Scenarios for Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use on Ecosystem Services in East Africa (AGU25)

GC071
Integrated SSP-RCP Scenarios for Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use on Ecosystem Services in East Africa

Session ID#: 251696

Session Description:
This study presents a novel framework that integrates the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) and Integrated Valuation and Trade-offs of ESs (InVEST) model, with the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) derived from NEX-GDDP-CMIP6. It examines projected changes in water yield, carbon storage, and habitat quality in East Africa under different scenarios for the 2041-2060 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s) compared to the historical period. Results show regional variability in precipitation and a projected temperature rise, with significant warming expected by 2090 under the SSP585. Projections indicate a substantial reduction in barren land, forestland, cropland, and urban areas by 2090. These findings highlight the growing pressures of climate and land use change on ES, offering critical insights for reconciling environmental preservation with socioeconomic development.
Index Terms:

1620 Climate dynamics [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1632 Land cover change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1640 Remote sensing [GLOBAL CHANGE]
Primary Convener:  Edovia Dufatanye Umwali, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; University of Lay Adventists of Kigali (UNILAK), Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Kigali, Rwanda
Convener:  Xi Chen, Zhenjiang University of Technology, Remote Sensing and GIS, Zhenjiang, China
 
Integrated Modelling of Climate Uncertainty and Infrastructure expansion for long-term Water resource planning in the Blue Nile River Basin. (1905743)
Selam Belay Sahlu, Delft University of Technology and IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Water resource and Ecosystem, Delft, Netherlands, Gerald Corzo Perez, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Department of Coastal and Urban Risk Resilience, Delft, Netherlands, David Gold, Utrecht University, Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht, Netherlands, Yared Ashenafi Bayissa, Texas A&M University, AgriLife Research, College Station, United States and Chris Zevenbergen, Delft University of Technology, Urbanism, Delft, Netherlands
 
Future Sediment Dynamics and Risk Mitigation in the Awash River Basin: Insights from CMIP6 Ensemble Models (1971974)
Hailemariam Doko, University of Tsukuba, Engineering Mechanics and Energy, Tsukuba, Japan and Dairaku Koji, University of Tsukuba Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering, Tsukuba, Japan
See more of: Global Environmental Change
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