GC032
Climate forcing: quantifying the roles and responses of natural and anthropogenic drivers
Session ID#: 251722
Session Description:
Earth system variability and change arise from shifts in atmospheric composition affecting top-of-atmosphere energy balance, from land use changes altering surface albedo, and from ocean surface temperature and sea ice change among other “forced” perturbations. These natural or anthropogenic change drivers are termed climate forcing agents. This session highlights research quantifying uncertainties in the evolution/impacts of these agents using Earth System Models and observations. We invite contributions across all aspects of forcing research, including the development of historical and future forcing time series, idealized analyses, single- or multi-model frameworks, or observational methods to assess their influence on Earth system dynamics. We are especially interested in studies examining responses to forcing over time, using next-generation (CMIP7), or earlier CMIP phases (CMIP6/CMIP6Plus). Submissions that explore interactions across multiple components of the Earth system—ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere, land surface and subsurface, and biosphere—and provide evidence of linked or coherent forced responses are highly encouraged.
Co-Sponsor(s):
Index Terms:
0305 Aerosols and particles [ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE]
1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1836 Hydrological cycles and budgets [HYDROLOGY]
4215 Climate and interannual variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
Primary Convener: Paul James Durack, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
Conveners: Dr. Vaishali Naik, Ph.D., NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, Zebedee Nicholls, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia and Thomas Jacques Aubry, University of British Columbia, Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Improving direct human forcing for CMIP7 earth system modelling and ISIMIP4 climate impact attribution (Invited) (1850323)
Dominik Paprotny1,2, Laurence Paul Hawker3,4, Inga Sauer1, Katja Frieler1, Anais Couasnon5, Doris Vertegaal5, Maksym Bondarenko4, Jason Hilton6, Natalia Tejedor Garavito4, Evgeny Noi3,4 and Andrew Tatem4, (1)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Research Department Transformation Pathways, Potsdam, Germany, (2)University of Szczecin, Institute for Marine and Environmental Sciences, Szczecin, Poland, (3)University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom, (4)University of Southampton, WorldPop, Southampton, United Kingdom, (5)Deltares, Delft, Netherlands, (6)University of Southampton, Department of Social Statistics and Demography, Southampton, United Kingdom
Climate Implications of Hydrogen Deployment Considering Changes in Emissions from Direct and Indirect Forcers (1868472)
Patrick R O'Rourke1, Bryan Mignone2, Matthew Binsted3, Olivia Clifton4, Bryan Chapman4, Kalyn Dorheim3, Page Kyle5 and Steven Smith6, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Richland, United States, (2)ExxonMobil Technology and Engineering, Annandale, United States, (3)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), Richland, United States, (4)ExxonMobil Technology and Engineering Company, Annandale, United States, (5)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), College Park, United States, (6)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States
Harmonized Historical and Future Land-Use Forcing for Global Carbon and Climate Models (1870476)
Louise P Chini1, George C Hurtt1, Lei Ma2, Kees Klein Goldewijk3, Stephen Sitch4, Thais M Rosan5, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika6, David M Lawrence7, Julia Pongratz8, Pierre Friedlingstein4 and Janna Chapman9, (1)University of Maryland College Park, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD, United States, (2)University of Maryland, College Park, Geographical sciences, College Park, United States, (3)PBL, Bilthoven, Netherlands, (4)University of Exeter, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, Exeter, United Kingdom, (5)University of Exeter, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Exeter, United Kingdom, (6)University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom, (7)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (8)Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Munich, Germany, (9)University of Maryland College Park, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, United States
Internal Variability and Forced Response of Antarctic Sea Ice from Multi-Model Large Ensembles (1891957)
Lukrecia Stulic1, Giovanni Liguori1, Doroteaciro Iovino2 and Yushi Morioka3, (1)University of Bologna, Department of Biological, Geological, and Environmental Sciences, Bologna, Italy, (2)Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici - CMCC, Bologna, Italy, (3)JAMSTEC/APL, Yokohama, Japan
Robust 21st century hydrological trends in the Mississippi River basin from CMIP6: west-gets-drier, east-gets-wetter (1892280)
Chris Hancock1, Sylvia Dee2, Muhammad Rezaul Haider3, James Doss-Gollin4, Flavio Lehner5, Kelsey Murphy2 and Samuel E. Munoz6, (1)Rice University, Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Houston, United States, (2)Rice University, Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Houston, TX, United States, (3)University of Texas at Arlington, Hydrology & Hydroinformatics Innovation Lab, Department of Civil Engineering, Arlington, TX, United States, (4)Rice University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Houston, TX, United States, (5)Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY, United States, (6)Northeastern University, Marine & Environmental Sciences, Boston, MA, United States
Lightning NOx and Isoprene Emissions Drive Intermodel Differences in Climate Response of Hydroxyl Radical (OH) (1896997)
Glen Chua, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States, Susanne Bauer, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States, Kostas Tsigaridis, Columbia University, New York, United States, Prof. Lorenzo M Polvani, PhD, Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, United States and Keren Mezuman, Columbia University in the City of New York, Center for Climate Systems Research, Palisades, United States
The Impact of Atmospheric CO2 on the Chemistry-Climate Effects of Tree Restoration (1933397)
Robert James Allen, University of California Riverside, Earth & Planetary Sciences, Riverside, CA, United States, Taylor Adkins, University of California Riverside, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Riverside, United States and Olivia Clifton, ExxonMobil Technology and Engineering Company, Annandale, United States
Attribution of Surface Air Temperature Changes in the Arctic during the 20th Century (1941674)
Takuro Aizawa1, Naga Oshima2, Seiji Yukimoto2, Masayoshi Ishii2 and Hiroyasu Hasumi3, (1)National Institute of Polar Research, Tachikawa, Japan, (2)Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan, (3)Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan
Measurements and Modeling of the 1960s Stratospheric Aerosol Layer (1943687)
Graham W Mann1, Jiaying Xu2, Sandip Dhomse1, Wuhu Feng1, Charlotte Tate1, Alexandru Rap1 and Zhengyao Li3, (1)University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, United Kingdom, (2)Cheng Bei Sub-branch Bank of China, Hangzhou, China, (3)China Meteorological Administration, Shaanxi Meteorological Observation Centre, Shaanxi, China
Detectable Global Temperature Responses to Wildfires and Volcanic Eruptions (1961634)
Yaowei Li, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States, Susan Solomon, MIT/EAPS, Cambridge, MA, United States, Benjamin D Santer, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole, United States, David W J Thompson, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO, United States and Qiang Fu, University of Washington, Seattle, United States
Quantifying the tropospheric ozone radiative forcing from US air pollution controls (1967046)
Stephanie Elkins1, Arlene M Fiore1, Gustavo J P Correa2, Jean-Francois Lamarque3, Steven Smith4, Dr. Vaishali Naik, Ph.D.5, Yangyang Xu6 and Ragnhild B Skeie7, (1)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, United States, (2)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (4)Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, United States, (5)NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, (6)Texas A&M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, United States, (7)CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Drivers of Tropical Upper Tropospheric Ozone Increases in 1995-2014 and Radiative Forcing Implications (1968329)
Xinyuan Yu1, Arlene M Fiore2, Jeffery R Scott3, Sebastian David Eastham4, J F Lamarque5, Ragnhild B Skeie6 and Stephanie Elkins2, (1)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, United States, (2)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, United States, (3)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy, Cambridge, United States, (4)Imperial College London, Department of Aeronautics, London, United Kingdom, (5)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Changes in Dense Water Formation and Arctic Circulation using Surface Water Mass Transformation Analysis (1979081)
Theo Avila, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Los Angeles, CA, UNITED STATES, Jacob Steinberg, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, John P Krasting, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, Jan-Erik Tesdal, Princeton University, AOS, Princeton, United States and Stephen Matthew Griffies, Princeton University, Princeton, United States
Quantifying Forced and Internal Components of Observed Precipitation Change Over Land (1984413)
Sydney Vernon1, David B Bonan1, Ronak Patel2 and Tapio Schneider3, (1)University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, United States, (2)California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States, (3)California Institute of Technology, Environmental Science and Engineering, Pasadena, United States
Assessing 4×CO₂ Radiative Forcing under Prescribed SST and Land Temperatures (1985018)
Bosong Zhang1, Brian Soden2, Haozhe He2 and Ryan J. Kramer3, (1)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, Miami, United States, (3)University of Miami, Miami, United States
