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Session Proposal: The Long Way: Heliosphere Modeling with Operations in Mind (AGU25)

SH032
The Long Way: Heliosphere Modeling with Operations in Mind

Session ID#: 251735

Session Description:
As humanity’s reliance on space-based technology deepens—and ambitions for human space exploration expand to Mars—the need to understand and predict the space environment becomes urgent. Despite remarkable progress in heliospheric modeling, significant gaps remain between models developed for fundamental scientific understanding and the requirements of real-world operational use, including the mismatches between what scientific models deliver and what end-users need, limited awareness of real-time operational data streams, constrained computational infrastructure for running physics-based models, and the need for models to rapidly adapt to new observational datasets—especially as more spacecraft dedicated to space weather monitoring becomes available.This session aims to bring together model developers, observers, and end-users to explore how models can better address the gaps—in terms of model capabilities, I/O workflows, validation approaches, or computational infrastructure. This session encourages dialogue on how the heliospheric modeling community can enhance its impact in space weather forecasting, policy-making, and risk mitigation.
Index Terms:

7924 Forecasting [SPACE WEATHER]
7959 Models [SPACE WEATHER]
7964 Policy [SPACE WEATHER]
7984 Space radiation environment [SPACE WEATHER]
Primary Convener:  Lulu Zhao, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
Conveners:  Kathryn Whitman, KBR/NASA JSC, Space Radiation Analysis Group, Houston, United States, Eric T Adamson, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, United States and M. Leila Mays, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, United States
 
Being Useful is not Beneath Our Dignity (Invited) (1859554)
Tamas I Gombosi, University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States
 
Data-driven Solar Eruption Forecasting: Research to Operation (1864576)
Yang Chen1, Lulu Zhao2, Tamas I Gombosi3, Ward Manchester3, Kevin Jin4, Victor Verma4 and Ke Hu4, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (2)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (3)University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (4)University of Michigan, Department of Statistics, Ann Arbor, United States
 
Next Generation Space Weather Modeling Framework with Data Assimilation, Uncertainty Quantification and Machine Learning: Final Year (1880203)
Gabor Toth1, Yang Chen2, Xun Huan3, Bart van der Holst4,5, Shasha Zou4, Aniket Jivani3, Hongfan Chen3, Yifu An4, Yuxi Chen4, Nishtha Sachdeva4, Zhenguang Huang6 and Ward Manchester4, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (2)University of Michigan, Department of Statistics, Ann Arbor, United States, (3)University of Michigan, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (4)University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (5)Boston University, Boston, United States, (6)Climate and Space Science and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States
 
CME Prediction at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center: Status and Outlook (1884035)
Mark S Miesch1, Eric T Adamson2, George H Millward3, Manasi Gopala4, Michael S Marsh5, Scott Burns4, Anders Englyst5, Lois Landwer3, Andy Marble6, Rich Lee7 and Charlotte Martinkus3, (1)CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, United States, (2)NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, United States, (3)CU/CIRES NOAA/SWPC, Boulder, United States, (4)NOAA/SWPC, Boulder, United States, (5)UK Meteorological Office, Exeter, United Kingdom, (6)University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, United States, (7)BJSS, Exeter, United Kingdom
 
Effects of AR-Aligned Synthetic Images from Generative Models on Strong Flare Forecasting (1886436)
Kevin Jin1, Ward Manchester2, Tamas I Gombosi2, Lulu Zhao2 and Yang Chen1, (1)University of Michigan, Department of Statistics, Ann Arbor, United States, (2)University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States
 
Empirical Formulation of the Source-Surface Height in the PFSS Extrapolation (1887887)
Munehito Shoda1, Kyogo Tokoro2, Daikou Shiota3 and Shinsuke Imada2, (1)University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan, (2)The University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Tokyo, Japan, (3)NICT National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Tokyo, Japan
 
Operational Testing of Physics-based SEP Prediction Model, SOFIE, in the SWPC Testbed Exercise (1893029)
Weihao Liu1, Lulu Zhao1, Igor Sokolov1, Kathryn Whitman2,3, Hazel M Bain4,5, Eric T Adamson5, Tamas I Gombosi1, Nishtha Sachdeva1 and M. Leila Mays6, (1)University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (2)NASA Johnson Space Center, Space Radiation Analysis Group, Houston, United States, (3)KBR, Houston, United States, (4)University of Colorado at Boulder, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, United States, (5)NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, United States, (6)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, United States
 
Integrating the SEPSTER(2D) and HESPERIA REleASE Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Models for the CLEAR Center (1894021)
Ian G Richardson, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States, Alessandro Bruno, Catholic University of America, Department of Physics, Washington DC, United States, M. Leila Mays, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, United States, Henrik Dröge, Kiel University, Kiel, Germany, Bernd Heber, University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany, Janna Martens, DLR, Neustrelitz, Germany and Michalis Karavolos, National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece
 
A Novel Method for Real-Time Forecasting of Extreme Energetic Storm Particle Events Associated with Interplanetary Shocks (1896448)
Maher A Dayeh1, Michael joseph Starkey2, Samuel Hart3, Subhamoy Chatterjee4, Kimberly Moreland5, Radoslav Bucik3, Abdullah Shmies6, George C Ho7, Mihir Indrajit Desai3 and Manuel Enrique Cuesta8, (1)Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX, United States, (2)Southwest Research Institute, Physics and Astronomy, San Antonio, United States, (3)Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, United States, (4)Southwest Research Institute Boulder, Boulder, United States, (5)CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, United States, (6)University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, United States, (7)southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, United States, (8)Princeton University, Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton, NJ, United States
 
Implementing Time Series Forecasting Functionality in the SEP Forecasting model MEMPSEP (1899577)
Subhamoy Chatterjee1, Samuel Hart2, Maher Dayeh2 and Michael joseph Starkey3, (1)Southwest Research Institute Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, United States, (3)Southwest Research Institute, Physics and Astronomy, San Antonio, United States
 
Prediction Models for Geomagnetic Activity Using Tomorrow’s Solar Wind (1900565)
Yian Yu, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
 
Gaps and Discrepancies in Existing Flare Lists that Impair Evaluation of Solar Flare Forecasting (1904684)
Ke Hu1, Victor Verma2, Kevin Jin2, Yang Chen2, Lulu Zhao3, Weihao Liu4, Ward Manchester4 and Tamas I Gombosi4, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Department of Statistics, Ann Arbor, United States, (2)University of Michigan, Department of Statistics, Ann Arbor, United States, (3)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (4)University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States
 
An Interactive Website for Real-Time and Retrospective Solar Eruption Forecasting (1911096)
Tamas I Gombosi1, Yang Chen2, Lulu Zhao3, Ward Manchester4, Kevin Jin2, Victor Verma2 and Ke Hu2, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (2)University of Michigan, Department of Statistics, Ann Arbor, United States, (3)Florida Institute of Technology, Department of Physics and Space Sciences, Melbourne, United States, (4)University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States
 
PARMISAN: A Physics-Based Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Model for Operations (1911442)
Alexander David Shane1, Lulu Zhao2, Igor Sokolov1 and Weihao Liu2, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (2)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
 
Performance of Different Machine Learning Methods with a Recently Updated Solar Flare Database (1918845)
Jiaqi Huang1, Yang Chen2, Ke Hu2, Tamas I Gombosi3 and Lulu Zhao4, (1)Huron High School, Ann Arbor, United States, (2)University of Michigan, Department of Statistics, Ann Arbor, United States, (3)University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (4)Florida Institute of Technology, Department of Physics and Space Sciences, Melbourne, United States
 
Transitioning OSPREI from Research to Runs on Request (Invited) (1919461)
Christina Kay, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, United States, M. Leila Mays, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, United States and Maksym Petrenko, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States
 
CLEAR Space Weather Center of Excellence for Solar Energetic Particles Predictions (1923786)
Lulu Zhao1, Tamas I Gombosi2, Charles Nickolos Arge3, Igor Sokolov2, Ward Manchester2, Yuri Omelchenko4, Yang Chen5, Meng Jin6, Bart van der Holst7, Zhenguang Huang2, Nishtha Sachdeva2, Alexander David Shane2, David Lario8, Ian G Richardson9, Christina Cohen10, Alessandro Bruno11, Xianyu Liu2, Weihao Liu1, Nikolett Biro2, Gergely Koban12, Kathryn Whitman13, M. Leila Mays14, Eric T Adamson15, Ke Hu5, Victor Verma5, Kevin Jin5, Joe Giacalone16 and Hazel M Bain17,18, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (2)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (3)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (4)Space Science Institute, San Diego, United States, (5)University of Michigan, Department of Statistics, Ann Arbor, United States, (6)Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory, Palo Alto, CA, United States, (7)Boston University, Boston, United States, (8)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States, (9)University of Maryland College Park, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States, (10)California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, (11)Catholic University of America, Department of Physics, Washington DC, United States, (12)University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (13)KBR/NASA JSC, Space Radiation Analysis Group, Houston, United States, (14)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, United States, (15)NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, United States, (16)University of Arizona, Planetary Sciences, Tucson, AZ, United States, (17)CU/CIRES NOAA/SWPC, Boulder, United States, (18)Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, United States
 
CME Initiation From a Vector Magnetogram (1925024)
Yifu An, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States and Gabor Toth, University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States
 
Developing a Magnetic Connectivity Tool Using Kinematic and 3D Solar Wind MHD Models (1933834)
Nikolett Biro, Lulu Zhao, Igor Sokolov, Tamas I Gombosi, Weihao Liu and Gergely Koban, University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States
 
Daily Simulated Solar Wind Pipeline using AWSoM-R (1934028)
Gergely Koban, Lulu Zhao, Weihao Liu, Nikolett Biro, Nishtha Sachdeva, Tamas I Gombosi and Igor Sokolov, University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States
 
Title: Simulation of the Geo-Effectiveness of Mesoscales CME Structures (1936663)
Ward Manchester1, Daniel T Welling2, Nishtha Sachdeva3, Matti Mikael Ala-Lahti4, K Emilia J Kilpua4, Shirsh Soni5, Zhenguang Huang6, Hongfan Chen7, Aniket Jivani7, Adam Szabo8 and Mojtaba Akhavan-Tafti9, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (2)University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (3)University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (4)University of Helsinki, Department of Physics, Helsinki, Finland, (5)Vikram Sarabhai Space Center, Thiruvananthapuram, 695, India, (6)Climate and Space Science and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (7)University of Michigan, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (8)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (9)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
 
FitsFlow: A Cyberinfrastructure, Browser-Based, Cloud-Native Platform for Machine Learning–Ready Processing of Solar FITS Data (1948707)
India Jackson, Georgia State University, Atlanta, United States
 
Prototyping Activities in Support of Research to Operations to Research (R2O2R) by NASA GSFC's Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office (1957813)
Mary Aronne1, Michelangelo Romano2, Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla3, Anna Chulaki4, Elizabeth Juelfs1, Melissa Kane4, Robert Loper5, Carina Alden4, Madeleine Anastopulos4, Hannah Hermann4, Anthony Iampietro4, Juliana Kreuscher4, Mary Pasanen6, Christopher Stubenrauch4 and The CLEAR Team, the CCMC Team, the NOAA/SWPC Team, (1)NASA GSFC/GMU, Greenbelt, United States, (2)NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, United States, (3)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Heliophysics Science Division, MD, United States, (4)NASA GSFC/CUA, Greenbelt, United States, (5)NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, United States, (6)NASA GSFC/ADNET Systems Inc., Greenbelt, United States
 
SCEPTER: A Strategic Capability for Modeling Solar Eruptions and their Space Weather Impact (1965134)
Spiro K Antiochos1, Tamas I Gombosi2, Igor Sokolov2, Nishtha Sachdeva2, Bart van der Holst2, Gabor Toth2, Lulu Zhao3, Ward Manchester2, Judith T Karpen4, Charles Nickolos Arge5, David Lario6, Joel Dahlin5, K Leka7, Graham Barnes8, M. Leila Mays9, Martin Reiss10, Xianyu Liu2 and Weihao Liu2, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, United States, (2)University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (3)Florida Institute of Technology, Department of Physics and Space Sciences, Melbourne, United States, (4)NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, United States, (5)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (6)Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States, (7)NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, United States, (8)NorthWest Research Associates Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (9)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, United States, (10)Community Coordinated Modeling Center, NASA, Silver Spring, United States
 
The Solar Wind Scoreboard (1968787)
Martin Reiss1, M. Leila Mays1, Masha Kuznetsova1, Zhenguang Huang2, Tinatin Baratashvili3, Maksym Petrenko4, Edmund Henley5 and Barbara Perri6, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, United States, (2)Climate and Space Science and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (3)KU Leuven, Centre for mathematical Plasma-Astrophysics, Leuven, Belgium, (4)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States, (5)Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom, (6)Astronome-Adjointe au CNAP, OSUPS, Saclay, France, Paris, France
 
Operational Real-time SEP Forecast/nowcast Pipeline with the iPATH Model. (1970613)
Junxiang Hu1,2, Claudio Corti3, Clayton Allison4,5, Gang Li6 and M. Leila Mays3, (1)University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL, United States, (2)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 671, Greenbelt, United States, (3)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, United States, (4)NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, United States, (5)Leidos, San Diego, United States, (6)General Linear Space Plasma Lab LLC, Forster City, United States
 
Connecting the Dots: A Machine Learning Ready Foundational Dataset for Ionospheric Forecasting Models (1972483)
Michael Vergalla1, Simone Mestici2, Linnea Wolniewicz3, Halil S. Kelebek4, Giacomo Acciarini5, Bala Poduval6, Umaa Rebbapragada7, Olga P Verkhoglyadova8, Atılım Güneş Baydin4, Tom Berger9 and Frank Soboczenski10, (1)FREE FLIGHT RESEARCH LAB, Mountain View, United States, (2)Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy, (3)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Information and Computer Sciences, Honolulu, United States, (4)University of Oxford, Department of Engineering Science, Oxford, United Kingdom, (5)ESA & University of Surrey, Advanced Concepts Team, Noordwijk, Netherlands, (6)Space Science Institute, Boulder, CO, United States, (7)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Machine Learning and Instrument Autonomy, Pasadena, United States, (8)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, United States, (9)University of Colorado at Boulder, CIRES, Boulder, United States, (10)University of York & King's College, Department of Computer Science, London, United Kingdom
 
NASA Space Weather Program: Community-Scale Strategies for and Approaches to Advancing Space Weather Numerical Forecasting (Invited) (1973333)
Jamie E Favors1, Esayas Shume2, Kelly E Korreck2, Alex Fletcher3, Ursula K Rick2, Reinhard H W Friedel4, Sabrina L Savage5,6, Dr. John Patrick McCormack1, Aleida Katherine Higginson7,8, Margaux Miller1 and NASA SWxP, (1)NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC, United States, (2)NASA Headquarters, Washington, United States, (3)NASA, Washington, United States, (4)NASA HQ, Lancaster, United States, (5)NASA, Washington, DC, United States, (6)NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, United States, (7)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (8)University of Michigan, AOSS, Ann Arbor, United States
 
An Automated Solar Active Region Identification and Characterization Module for the SEPCaster Model (1982719)
Sailee Sawant, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL, United States, Gang Li, General Linear Space Plasma Lab LLC, Hunstville, United States, Meng Jin, Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory, Palo Alto, CA, United States and Junxiang Hu, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 671, Greenbelt, United States
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