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Session Proposal: Advancing Skill in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction (AGU25)

A016
Advancing Skill in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction

Session ID#: 252208

Session Description:
Reliable subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts are essential for managing economic risk and informing planning in sectors such as energy, agriculture, water resources, and transportation. Land-atmosphere interactions, along with processes like the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and stratospheric variability, are central to predictability at this time scale. This session invites contributions that improve understanding and predictive skill by identifying, diagnosing, and addressing model errors across components of the Earth system. Submissions may also include process-oriented diagnostics, improved initialization and data assimilation strategies, bias corrections, statistical post-processing tools, and refinements to physical parameterizations. We particularly welcome studies that leverage observational constraints, develop process- and operation-oriented metrics, or contribute to model evaluation frameworks that support operational use. The session will also include highlights from the June 2025 Land-Atmosphere S2S Workshop, with a focus on strengthening coordination across modeling, observational, and application communities to advance forecast performance.
Index Terms:

1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1627 Coupled models of the climate system [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3238 Prediction [MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS]
Primary Convener:  Christine Bassett, FedWriters, Fairfax, United States
Conveners:  Mark A Olsen, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Jadwiga Richter, U. S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States and Yan Xue, NOAA NWS OSTI Modeling Program Division, Silver Spring, United States
Student/Early Career Convener:  Margaret Orr, University of Delaware, Newark, United States
 
Contributions of the Stratosphere vs. the Tropics to the Subseasonal Forecast Skill of North American Cold Air Outbreaks (1857394)
Jason C Furtado, University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, Meteorology, Norman, OK, United States and Oliver Millin, University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, Meteorology, Norman, United States
 
Dependence of Accurate Numerical Simulations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Subseasonal Precipitation on Initial Conditions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (1858004)
Dongze Xu1, Zhaoxia Pu1, Shixuan Zhang2, Jeffrey L Anderson3 and Ruby Leung2, (1)University of Utah, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Salt Lake City, UT, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States, (3)NCAR, Boulder, United States
 
A Multi-Model Assessment of WR-GMM for Seasonal Precipitation Prediction Using Deterministic and Probabilistic Evaluation (1859074)
Jihun Ryu, Utah State University, Plants, Soils, and Climate, Logan, UT, United States, Cody Ratterman, Utah State University, Plants, Soils and Climate Department, Logan, UT, United States, Bradley Vernon, Utah State University, Department of Plants, Soils, and Climate, Logan, UT, United States and Wei Zhang, Utah State University, Plants, Soils and Climate, Logan, United States
 
The teleconnection between snowpack in the Western U.S. and late-spring precipitation in the Southern Great Plains (1867754)
Yuan Qiu1, Yongkang Xue2, Guo-Yue Niu3, Ali Behrangi3 and James S Famiglietti4, (1)Arizona State University, School of Sustainability, Tempe, AZ, United States, (2)University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Department of Geography, Los Angeles, United States, (3)University of Arizona, Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, United States, (4)Arizona State University, School of Sustainability, Tempe, United States
 
Coupled WRF-Hydro and UFS modeling to improve subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions (1869016)
Erin Dougherty, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Daisuke Tokuda, The University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science, Tokyo, Japan, Ryan Cabell, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, United States, Michael B Ek, NSF NCAR, Boulder, United States, Aubrey L Dugger, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, United States, Dan Rosen, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States and Paul Dirmeyer, COLA, Fairfax, United States
 
A Large-scale Evaluation of Available Subseasonal Precipitation Forecast Products over the Contiguous United States: Bias, Skill, and Relative Performance (1876381)
Lujun Zhang, Tiantian Yang, Kendra M Dresback, Christine Szpilka and Randall Lee Kolar, University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, Norman, United States
 
Unified Forecast System Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Easterly Waves in the East Pacific During Boreal Summer (1878522)
Eric D Maloney and Yu-Cian Tsai, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States
 
Mixed Layer and Oceanic Kelvin Wave Response Biases to Equatorial Pacific Westerly Wind Events in Multi-Models (1879631)
Jingxuan Cui, Emily M. Riley Dellaripa, Charlotte A DeMott and Eric D Maloney, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States
 
ENSO and the onset of the rainy season in Central America: A moist static energy perspective. (1882335)
Mr. Alan Garcia, PhD Student, Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, New York, United States; Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, Richard Seager, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, Ángel G. Muñoz, Alisios Corporation, Aerthydral Collective, Granada, Spain and Ron L Miller, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States
 
Initial Condition Sensitivity of ENSO Prediction in CESM SMYLE (1887708)
Yudi Mao, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Illinois, UNITED STATES, Gan Zhang, University of Illinois, Urbana, United States, Hui Li, Yale University, New Haven, United States and Dillon J Amaya, University of Colorado, Boulder, United States
 
A Statistical Approach to Monthly Arctic Sea Ice Prediction Based on Spatiotemporal Anomaly Persistence (1890438)
Gyuri Lee1, Sung-Ho Woo2, Joo-Hong Kim3 and Jee-Hoon Jeong2, (1)Sejong University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)Sejong University, Seoul, South Korea, (3)Korea Polar Research Institute, Division of Ocean and Atmosphere Sciences, Incheon, South Korea
 
NWS’s Weeks 3-4 Program and Seasonal Forecast System Project: Progresses, Challenges, and Community Engagement (1896972)
Yan Xue1, Steven Michael Simon2 and Kevin Garrett1, (1)NOAA NWS OSTI Modeling Program Division, Silver Spring, United States, (2)IBSS Corporation, North Bethesda, MD, UNITED STATES
 
Production of High-Resolution Temperature Fields in South Korea Based on CFSv2 forecasts Using Statistical Downscaling Method (1910076)
Chan-Yeong Song and Keunchang Jang, National Institute of Forest Science, Forest Disaster and Environmental Research Department, Seoul, South Korea
 
Tropospheric and Stratospheric Boreal Winter Jet Response to Eddying Ocean in a Seasonal Forecast System (1912887)
Shoji Hirahara1, Ichiro Ishikawa2, Yosuke Fujii2, Hideyuki Nakano3, Hiroyuki Tsujino3, Yukimasa Adachi2 and Hiroaki Naoe4, (1)Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan, (2)Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan, (3)Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan, (4)Meteorological Research Institute, Ibaraki, Japan
 
Winter Precipitation Predictions in the Contiguous U.S.: Challenges for Two Seasonal Forecast Models, SEAS5 and CFSv2 (1917579)
Qinghua Ding, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, Yingxian Zhang, CMA, Beijing, China and Hailan Wang, SSAI, Hampton, VA, United States; Climate Prediction Center/NCEP, College Park, United States
 
Simulating the effects of aerosol-radiation interactions on subseasonal prediction using the coupled Unified Forecast System and CCPP-Chem:interactive aerosol module versus prescribed aerosol climatology (1918431)
Shan Sun1, Georg Grell1 and Li Zhang2, (1)NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (2)CU Boulder/CIRES, Boulder, United States
 
The potential impacts of improved MJO prediction on the prediction of MJO teleconnections in the UFS global fully coupled model (1933312)
Jiabao Wang, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, Daniela Domeisen, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland, Chaim Garfinkel, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel, Andrea Jenney, Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, United States, Hyemi Kim, Ewha Womans University, Department of Science Education, Seoul, South Korea, Zheng Wu, University at Albany, Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, United States, Cheng Zheng, Stony Brook Univ St Univ NY, Stony Brook, United States, Cristiana Stan, George Mason University Fairfax, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States and F Martin Ralph, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, United States
 
Assessing seasonal predictability of East Asian winter temperature via monthly predictable mode analysis (1934722)
Wogu Zhong1,2 and Zhiwei Wu1, (1)Fudan University, Shanghai, China, (2)Columbia University, New York, United States
 
Modulation of Extreme Precipitation in West Africa by the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Insights from Observations and CMIP6 Models (1936055)
Coumba Niang1, Lifeng Luo1 and Amadou Thierno Gaye2, (1)Michigan State University, Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, East Lansing, United States, (2)Laboratoire de Physique de l’Atmosphère et de l’Océan-Siméon Fongang, Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique de l’Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal, Dakar, Senegal
 
Unlocking Predictive Potential: A Framework for Strategic Weekly Rainfall Forecasts (1948664)
Fei Liu, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China, Bin Wang, Univ Hawaii, Honolulu, United States and Deliang Chen, Tsinghua University, Department of Earth System Science, Beijing, China
 
Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Skill of Rainfall Diurnal Cycle over the Maritime Continent and Its MJO Dependence (1956817)
Wayne Yuan-Huai Tsai1, Naoko Sakaeda1 and James H. Ruppert Jr.2, (1)University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, School of Meteorology, Norman, United States, (2)University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, Meteorology, Norman, OK, United States
 
Global Probabilistic Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction Using the NASA GEOS-S2S and Linear Inverse Modeling (1958988)
Andrew William Robertson, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States, Jing Yuan, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, United States, Sergey Kravtsov, University of Wisconsin-Milwau, Milwaukee, United States, Mohammad Ghadamidehno, PhD Student, Water, Wetland, and Marine Resources Management, School of Freshwater Sciences University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, USA, Milwaukee, United States and Andrea Molod, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States
 
Impact of Dynamically Balanced Coupled Model Initialization on S2S Climate Prediction (1959121)
Abdullah Al Fahad, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Andrea Molod, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States, Dimitris Menemenlis, San Jose State University, San Jose, United States, Atanas l Trayanov, Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, United States and Hong Zhang, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States
 
Assessment of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Precipitation Forecast Skill for Southern India (1961023)
Sangam Yadav, Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad, Climate Change, Hyderabad, India and Maheswaran Rathinasamy, Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad, Civil Engineering, Hyderabad, India
 
Evaluation of Alaska summer temperature and precipitation from dynamical seasonal forecasts (1964226)
Cecilia Borries Strigle1, Uma Suren Bhatt2, Thomas Ballinger3, Peter Bieniek1, Benjamin Bartos4, Elizabeth Fischer2,5, Joshua Hostler1, Nathan Kettle1, Rick Lader5, Heidi Strader6, Hilary Shook5 and Christine F Waigl7, (1)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (2)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States, (3)International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States, (4)National Weather Service, Fairbanks, United States, (5)International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, United States, (6)Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, Fairbanks, United States, (7)University of Alaska Fairbanks, International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, AK, United States
 
The impact of enhanced vertical resolution on seasonal prediction skill in CESM2: a new community hindcast dataset (1965196)
Isla Simpson1, Michael J Deflorio2, Jiabao Wang3, Luca Delle Monache4, Nora Mascioli5, Jim Edwards6, Nan A Rosenbloom7, Matthew Simpson4, Gokhan Danabasoglu8, Yuanpu Li8, Peter B. Gibson9, Patrick Mulrooney4, Jadwiga Richter10 and Stephen G Yeager11, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, CGD Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (2)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, (3)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, (4)Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, United States, (5)University of California San Diego, La Jolla, United States, (6)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (7)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (8)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Boulder, United States, (9)National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand, (10)U. S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (11)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
 
Improving the Skill of Seasonal Extreme Rainfall Predictions Using a Space-Time Nonstationary Stochastic Rainfall Downscaling Model (1966048)
Yagmur Derin1, Daniel B Wright2, Yuan Liu3, Robert Emberson4, Lauren C Andrews5 and Mr. Thomas Stanley4, (1)University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, United States, (2)University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States, (3)University of Wisconsin-Madison, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States, (4)University of Maryland Baltimore County, GESTAR-II, Baltimore, United States, (5)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD, United States
 
Improving seasonal forecasts of winter rainfall hazards in Alaska (1973343)
Peter Bieniek1, Uma Suren Bhatt2, Cecilia Borries Strigle3, Nathan Kettle3, Patricia Hutton2 and Cecelia Borries, (1)International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (2)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States, (3)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States
 
Bayesian Analysis of Polar Vortex and SSW Representation in CAM7/WACCM7 - Does Improved Polar Vortex Representation Lead to Enhanced Predictability of SSWs? (1973533)
Hope Hunter, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Urbana, United States, Martina Bramberger, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States and Hannah Marie Horowitz, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Urbana, United States
 
Getting the Spread Right: Tropical Precipitation Variance at Long Leads (1974131)
Aaron F Z Levine, University of Washington, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies, Seattle, United States
 
Stratospheric Impacts on Eurasian Soil Moisture on Subseasonal Timescales (1983446)
Ying Dai1, Peter Hitchcock2 and Flavio Lehner2, (1)Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States, (2)Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, United States
 
Bridging the Gap in S2S Drought Forecasting: Leveraging CFSv2 and NMME Ensembles for Improved Predictability (1994945)
Carlos M. Carrillo, Cornell University, Earth and Atmospheric Science, Ithaca, United States, Toby Ault, Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Ithaca, NY, United States and Art T Degaetano, Northeast Regional Climate Center, Ithaca, United States
 
The NSF NCAR Community Software Facility (CSF): Evolving Software Governance and Engineering to Enable Earth System Predictability (1995856)
Thomas Hauser1, Jon Petch2, Gretchen Mullendore3, Glen S Romine4, Domi Colegrove5 and Kate Kuzemka5, (1)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (2)National Center for Atmosperic Research, Boulder, CO, UNITED STATES, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (4)NCAR/MMM, Boulder, United States, (5)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
 
Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Arctic Summer Sea Ice Forecasts Using Dynamical Downscaling with the Regional Arctic System Model (2001775)
Younjoo J Lee1, Wieslaw Maslowski1, Anthony Craig2, Jaclyn L Clement Kinney1 and Robert Osinski3, (1)Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, United States, (2)Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, United States, (3)Institute of Oceanology Polish Academy of Sciences, Sopot, Poland
 
Investigating the Predictability of Atmospheric Blocking in SubC Forecasts (2001896)
Ka Ying Ho, Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, IN, United States and Lei Wang, Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, United States
 
Impact of Land Surface Uncertainty on Coastal Maritime Weather Predictions (2003518)
Stephanie Rushley, Naval Research Lab Monterey, Marine Meteorology, Monterey, CA, United States, Carolyn A. Reynolds, U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, United States, Peter Finocchio, University of Miami, Miami, United States; U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, United States and William Crawford, US Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA, United States
 
S2S Bench: A Global Benchmark of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts with Implications for the Water, Energy, and Food Nexus (2004889)
Omid Bagheri1, Geruo A1 and Isabella Velicogna1,2, (1)Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, United States, (2)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, United States
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