Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Slowdown/Shutdown: Likelihood, Consequences, Response Options

Session ID#: 280234

Session Description:
The slowdown or shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is widely considered a potential tipping point in Earth’s climate system, with potentially catastrophic consequences.

This interdisciplinary session examines questions spanning climate physics, climate impacts, and response options:

  • How likely is an AMOC slowdown or shutdown under different climate pathways, and how well can we predict its timing and magnitude?
  • What physical climate changes would result, and how would these affect humans and natural ecosystems?
  • What strategies, including adaptation, mitigation, and climate intervention, might reduce risk or ameliorate consequences?

We emphasize priorities for action today:

  • How can we improve monitoring and prediction of AMOC slowdown?
  • How can we improve predictions of its impacts?
  • How can we better understand societal and ecological consequences, and possible adaptive responses?
  • What research could provide more confidence regarding whether proposed interventions, such as ice-sheet stabilization or solar geoengineering, could reduce AMOC-related risks?
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • B - Biogeosciences
  • C - Cryosphere
  • OS - Ocean Sciences
Index Terms:

1605 Abrupt/rapid climate change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
Primary Convener:  Ken Caldeira, Gates Ventures, Kirkland, United States; Stanford University, Stanford, United States
Convener:  Dr. Mahendra Nimmakanti, PhD, Indian Institute of Sciences, Bangalore, India
Student/Early Career Convener:  Lauren Moody, Stanford University, Dept. of Earth System Science, Stanford, United States