Episodic slow slip events in a non-planar subduction fault model for northern Cascadia

Episodic tremor and slow slip (ETS) events have been detected along the Cascadia margin, as well as many other subduction zones, by increasingly dense seismic and geodetic networks over the past decade. In northern Cascadia, ETS events arise on the thrust fault interface of 30~50 km depth, coincident with metamorphic dehydration of the subducting oceanic slab around temperatures of 350. Previous numerical simulations (e.g., Liu and Rice 2007) suggested that near-lithostatic pore pressure in the rate-state friction stability transition zone could give rise to slow slip events (SSE) down-dip of the seismogenic zone, which provides a plausible physical mechanism for these phenomena.

Here we present a 3-D numerical simulation of inter-seismic SSEs based on the rate- and state- friction law, incorporating a non-planar, realistic northern Cascadia slab geometry compiled by McCrory et al. (2012) using triangular dislocation elements. Preliminary results show that the width and pore pressure level of the transition zone can remarkably affect the recurrence of SSEs. With effective normal stress of ~1-2 MPa and characteristic slip distance of ~1.4 mm, inter-seismic SSEs can arise about every year. The duration of each event is about 2~3 weeks, with the propagating speed along strike in the range of km/day. Furthermore, the slab bending beneath southern Vancouver Island and northern Washington State appears to accelerate the along-strike propagation of SSEs. Our next step is to constrain the rate-state frictional properties using geodetic inversion of SSE slip and inter-SSE plate coupling from the Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) GPS measurements. Incorporating the realistic fault geometry into a physics model constrained by geodetic data will enable us to transition from a conceptual towards a quantitative and predictive understanding of SSEs mechanism.