Evolution of the South-East Monsoon System – An Investigation of the Dynamical Controls on the Monsoon System Over Geologic Time Scales.

The South-East Asian monsoon is a fundamental feature in the global climate system cycling energy, moisture and momentum from tropical to extra-tropical latitudes. Societies rely extensively on precipitation during the monsoon season to sustain population centres and economic activity such as agriculture. However the current monsoon system has not always been in its current configuration varying extensively throughout geological time. However little is known about the driving factors behind its creation and evolution.

A series of numerical model simulation (HadCM3L) using state of the art reconstructed paleogeographies have been employed to investigate the evolution of the S.E. Asian monsoon system for each geological stage (32 simulations in total) since the beginning of the Cretaceous. Two methodologies, i) a fixed regional precipitation signal based on the current monsoon regions modern areal extent and ii) a migrating regional construct based on the modern day monsoon regions back rotated through time are investigated. These two methodologies allow an examination of the evolution of tropical precipitation over time in the region. The large-scale processes (paleogeography, CO₂) of the monsoon system and the regional dynamics (e.g. sea surface temperatures, regional atmospheric circulation, oceanic heat transport, land-sea temperature differential) that control them are also examined with numerical results compared against available proxy data.

Preliminary results indicate a downward trend in global precipitation since the late Eocene with significant change at the E/O boundary. In addition, tropical precipitation (40°N - 40°S) has seen a downward trend in rainfall since the mid-Cretaceous. S.E. Asia is shown to be influenced by changes in topographical features/ location, CO₂ concentrations, and the regional atmospheric circulation playing a key role in modification of the monsoon system which drive variability on tectonic time scales.