Factors Affecting P Loads to Surface Waters: Comparing the Roles of Precipitation and Land Management Practices

Surface water quality is a major concern in the Yahara watershed (YW) of southern Wisconsin, home to a thriving dairy industry, the city of Madison, and five highly valued lakes that are eutrophic. Despite management interventions to mitigate runoff, there has been no significant trend in P loading to the lakes since 1975. Increases in manure production and heavy rainfall events over this time period may have offset any effects of management. We developed a comprehensive, integrated modeling framework that can simulate the effects of multiple drivers on ecosystem services, including surface water quality. The framework includes process-based representation of terrestrial ecosystems (Agro-IBIS) and groundwater flow (MODFLOW), hydrologic routing of water and nutrients across the landscape (THMB), and assessment of lake water quality (YWQM). Biogeochemical cycling and hydrologic transport of P have been added to the framework to enable detailed simulation of P dynamics within the watershed, including interactions with climate and management. The P module features in-soil cycling of organic, inorganic, and labile forms of P; manure application, decomposition, and subsequent loss of dissolved P in runoff; loss of particulate-bound P with erosion; and transport of dissolved and particulate P within waterways. Model results will compare the effects of increased heavy rainfall events, increased manure production, and implementation of best management practices on P loads to the Yahara lakes.