Modelling the interplay between global and regional drivers on Amazon deforestation

Since mid-2000s, several measures have been taken to curb Amazon deforestation in Brazil, which dropped 84% up to 2012. However, this process raise concerns owed of the unintended effects of such interventions, like land use displacements. Here we explore an innovative modeling approach for the Amazon in order to simulate how the global demand for agricultural commodities and different regional land use policies could affect future deforestation trends inside and outside the Amazon, paying special attention to leakage effects over the Cerrado. A global economic model was taken to integrate supply and demand factors at both global and regional scales, coupled with a spatially explicitly land use model. Leakage effects are simulated in two different ways, regarding land demand and land allocation, based on the relative land rents of different land use types and spatial regression. Six contrasting multi-scale scenarios are explored focusing on deforestation rates and spatial pattern analysis. Our results unveil that Amazon conservation might not be the end of deforestation in Brazil once it can lead to 70% increase over the Cerrado cleared area up to 2050. Biofuels targets compliance can further press land cover changes over these regions revealing that productivity gains will be decisive for both Amazon and Cerrado conservation. In summary, closing the agricultural frontier in the Amazon cannot ensure biodiversity conservation or carbon savings in absence of complementary measures committed with land use efficiency, controlled land use expansion and new economic alternatives.