Multi-parameter Observations and Validation of Pre-earthquake Atmospheric Signals

Dimitar Ouzounov, American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, United States; Chapman University, Institute for Earth, Computing, Human and Observing (Institute for ECHO), Orange, CA, United States, Sergey A Pulinets, Space Research Institute (IKI), Moscow, Russia, Katsumi Hattori, Graduate School of Science, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan, Toru Mogi, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan and Menas Kafatos, Chapman University, Institute for Earth, Computing, Human and Observing (ECHO), Orange, CA, United States
Abstract:
We are presenting the latest development in multi-sensors observations of short-term pre-earthquake phenomena preceding major earthquakes. We are exploring the potential of pre-seismic atmospheric and ionospheric signals to alert for large earthquakes. To achieve this, we start validating anomalous ionospheric /atmospheric signals in retrospective and prospective modes.

The integrated satellite and terrestrial framework (ISTF) is our method for validation and is based on a joint analysis of several physical and environmental parameters (Satellite thermal infrared radiation (OLR), electron concentration in the ionosphere (GPS/TEC), VHF-bands radio waves, radon/ion activities, air temperature and seismicity patterns) that were found to be associated with earthquakes. The science rationale for multidisciplinary analysis is based on concept Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) [Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011], which explains the synergy of different geospace processes and anomalous variations, usually named short-term pre-earthquake anomalies. Our validation processes consist in two steps: (1) A continuous retrospective analysis preformed over two different regions with high seismicity- Taiwan and Japan for 2003-2009 The retrospective tests (100+ major earthquakes, M>5.9, Taiwan and Japan) show OLR anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives. False alarm ratio for false positives is less then 25%. (2) Prospective testing using multiple parameters with potential for M5.5+ events. The initial testing shows systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies in advance (days) to the M5.5+ events for Taiwan and Japan (Honshu and Hokkaido areas).

Our initial prospective results suggest that our approach show a systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies, one to several days prior to the largest earthquakes That feature could be further studied and tested for advancing the multi-sensors detection of pre-earthquake atmospheric signals.

Back to: Interdisciplinary Study of Pre-earthquake Processes: Observation, Validation, Modeling, and Forecasting I