Study on the water related disaster risks using the future socio-economic scenario in Asia

Masashi Kiguchi1, Misako Hatono2, Hiroaki Ikeuchi3, Shinichiro Nakamura4, Yukiko Hirabayashi3, Shinjiro Kanae5 and Taikan Oki6, (1)Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan, (2)Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan, (3)the University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Engineering, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan, (4)the University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science, Meguro-ku, Tokyo, Japan, (5)Tokyo Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tokyo, Japan, (6)University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan
Abstract:
In this study, flood risks in the present and the end of the 21st century in Asia are estimated using a future socio-economic scenario. Using the runoff data of 7 GCMs (RCP 8.5) of CMIP5, the river discharge, inundation area, and inundation depth are calculated for the assessment of flood risk. Finally, the flood risk is estimated using a function of damage.

The flood frequency in the end of the 21st century in Asia tends to increase. Inundation area in Japan, Taiwan, and Kyrgyz is almost unchanged. At the same time, that in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Laos, and Myanmar reached about 1.4-1.6 times compared to present. Damage cost is largely influenced by economic growth, however, we show that it is important that we distinguish the influence of climate change from economic development and evaluate it when we think about an adaptation.

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