The evolutionary nature of narratives about expansion and sustenance

The 200 years since the start of the industrial era has been a period of rapid and almost unbroken economic growth in much of the world, based upon exponentially increasing use of energy and water resources and the atmospheric commons. It is axiomatic that exponential growth cannot continue forever on a finite planet, leading to an emerging collision between the presently irresistible force of economic growth and the immovable reality of the finitude of Planet Earth. This has led to the a contest between two broad narratives about humans and their planet in the 21st century, an “expansion” narrative framed around the paramount need for economic growth, and a “sustenance” narrative framed around the paramount need to protect an increasingly fragile natural world. Many features of recent public discourse, including the acceleration of the news cycle and the echo-chamber effect of interactive social media, have driven these narratives to become progressively more mutually antagonistic and incompatible.

Here I explore the idea that narratives (in the sense of stories that empower actions) are meme sequences that evolve through diversification, selection and adaptation. This memetic evolution can be understood and, to some extent, influenced. An analogy might be with the influence exerted by human selection over centuries on the gene pool of domesticated animals and plants.

In shaping our shared future, the evolutionary contest between “expansion” and “sustenance” narratives is just as important as the dynamics of the natural world. The future therefore depends upon the evolution of more subtle and resilient narratives about human-earth interactions. A selection test for these narratives is their ability to empower a transition to a society that lives within the means of a finite planet and improves global wellbeing at the same time. My own recent experience is that scientists alone are not very good at shaping narratives to pass this fitness test, and the participation of other disciplines and approaches is urgently needed.