Effects of Soil Property Uncertainty on Projected Active Layer Thickness

Uncertainty in future climate is often assumed to contribute the largest uncertainty to active layer thickness (ALT) projections. However, the impact of soil property uncertainty on these projections may be significant. In this research, we evaluate the contribution of soil property uncertainty on ALT projections at the Barrow Environmental Observatory, Alaska. The effect of variations in porosity, thermal conductivity, saturation, and water retention properties of peat and mineral soil are evaluated. The micro-topography of ice wedge polygons present at the site is included in the analysis using three 1D column models to represent polygon center, rim and trough features. The Arctic Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) is used to model multiphase thermal and hydrological processes in the subsurface. We apply the Null-Space Monte Carlo (NSMC) algorithm to identify an ensemble of soil property combinations that produce simulated temperature profiles that are consistent with temperature measurements available from the site. ALT is simulated for the ensemble of soil property combinations for four climate scenarios. The uncertainty in ALT due to soil properties within and across climate scenarios is evaluated. This work was supported by LANL Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project LDRD201200068DR and by the The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE Arctic) project. NGEE-Arctic is supported by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research in the DOE Office of Science.