Impacts of drought on the water and energy systems

Climate models projected an accelerated water cycle with more frequent and intense extremes in the future. Droughts, in particular, can add significant stress to the water and energy systems by reducing water supply that constrains not only water use but also energy production. During the 2012 summer drought in the Central Great Plains, the most severe seasonal drought in 117 years, precipitation was almost two standard deviations below normal east of the Continental Divide to the Ohio Valley, with coincident much above normal temperature and low surface runoff. The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA), an integrated framework designed to address water-energy nexus, is being tested in its ability to simulate the meteorological and hydrological conditions of the 2012 drought and the consequent impacts on water supply, stream temperature, and energy demand and production. Driven by regional scenarios of climate change and the RCPs, the models are also being used to project changes in water deficits in the U.S. Changes in droughts and their compounding effects through changes in multiple variables such as precipitation, temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature will be analyzed to provide insights on vulnerability of the water and energy systems.