Climate and Southern Africa's Water-Energy-Food Nexus
Declan Conway1, Timothy J. Osborn2, Steve Dorling3, Claudia Ringler4, Bruce Lankford5, Carole Dalin6, James Thurlow7, Tingju Zhu7, Delphine Deryng8, Willem Landman9, Emma Archer van Garderen9, Tobias Krueger10 and Karen Lebek10, (1)London School of Economics, London, United Kingdom, (2)University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, NR4, United Kingdom, (3)University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, United Kingdom, (4)International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States, (5)University of East Anglia, School of International Development, Norwich, United Kingdom, (6)University College London, Institute for Sustainable Resources, The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy, and Resources, London, United Kingdom, (7)International Food Policy Research Institute, Environment and Production Technology Division, Washington, DC, United States, (8)University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich, United Kingdom, (9)CSIR, Natural Resources and the Environment, Pretoria, South Africa, (10)Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Abstract:
Numerous challenges coalesce to make Southern Africa emblematic of the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus. Rainfall and river flows in the region show high levels of variability across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate variability and change is high, for example, the contribution of electricity produced from hydroelectric sources is over 30% in Madagascar and Zimbabwe and almost 100% in the DRC, Lesotho, Malawi, and Zambia. The region's economy is closely linked with that of the rest of the African continent and climate-sensitive food products are an important item of trade. Southern Africa’s population is concentrated in regions exposed to high levels of hydro-meteorological variability, and will increase rapidly over the next four decades. The capacity to manage the effects of climate variability tends, however, to be low. Moreover, with climate change annual precipitation levels, soil moisture and runoff are likely to decrease and rising temperatures will increase evaporative demand.
Despite high levels of hydro-meteorological variability, the sectoral and cross-sectoral water-energy-food linkages with climate in Southern Africa have not been considered in detail. Lack of data and questionable reliability are compounded by complex dynamic relationships. We review the role of climate in Southern Africa’s nexus, complemented by empirical analysis of national level data on climate, water resources, crop and energy production, and economic activity. Our aim is to examine the role of climate variability as a driver of production fluctuations in the nexus, and to improve understanding of the magnitude and temporal dimensions of their interactions. We first consider national level exposure of food, water and energy production to climate in aggregate economic terms and then examine the linkages between interannual and multi-year climate variability and economic activity, focusing on food and hydropower production. We then review the potential for connecting areas with robust seasonal climate forecasting skill with key precursors of economic output and conclude by identifying knowledge gaps in our understanding of regional and national economic linkages in the climate and water-energy-food nexus.
