A31H:
Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting of High-Impact Weather and Climate Events Posters

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Session ID#: 22804

Session Description:
There is growing interest in the scientific, operational and applications communities in developing sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts (2 weeks to a season ahead) to provide early warning of high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, heat and cold waves. An extensive database of S2S forecasts and hindcasts from operational centers has been created by the WWRP/WCRP S2S project that enables sources of sub-seasonal predictability (e.g. sea-ice, soil moisture, MJO, stratosphere-troposphere interactions etc.) to be studied, forecast skill assessed, and early warning systems developed tailored to user needs. Similarly, the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a United States interagency research project selected via a NOAA-MAPP Climate Test Bed competition to test subseasonal prediction models for National Weather Service operations. Contributions are solicited on all aspects of S2S prediction, with emphasis on studies making use of the S2S Project database and those contributing to SubX.
Primary Convener:  Duane Edward Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
Conveners:  Arun Kumar, NOAA/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States, Frederic Vitart, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom and Elizabeth A Barnes, Boston University, Faculty of Computing and Data Sciences; Earth & Environment, Boston, United States
Chair:  Duane Edward Waliser, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Duane Edward Waliser, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
Index Terms:

3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3374 Tropical meteorology [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4522 ENSO [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Interannual variability of the Submonthly Wave Patterns over the Western North Pacific (207081)
Ken-Chung Ko, National Kaohsiung Normal University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Effects of multilayer snow scheme in the simulation of Indian Summer Monsoon (210540)
Sujith K, Subodh Kumar Saha, Archana Rai, Samir Pokhrel, Anupam Hazra and Hemantkumar S Chaudhari, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
Drivers and seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds in the ECMWF System 4 and a statistical model (211556)
Michael Alexander Walz1, Markus Donat2 and Gregor C Leckebusch1, (1)University of Birmingham, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Birmingham, B15, United Kingdom, (2)University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Sub-seasonal precipitation during the South Asian summer monsoon onset period (213635)
Yuhei Takaya, Meteorological Research Institute, Department of Atmosphere, Ocean, and Earth System Modeling Research, Ibaraki, Japan and Munehiko Yamaguchi, Meteorological Research Institute, Ibaraki, Japan
Improving Prediction of Large-scale Regime Transitions (221260)
John R Gyakum1, Paul Roebber2, Lance F Bosart3, Andrea Honor2, Eric Bunker4, Yeechian Low5, Jamie Hart5, Natalia Bliankinshtein5, Allison Kolly5, Eyad Atallah5 and Yi Huang5, (1)McGill University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Montreal, QC, Canada, (2)University of Wisconsin Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, United States, (3)University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, United States, (4)SUNY at Albany, Albany, NY, United States, (5)McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
Evaluation of Predictability for Sub-seasonal Precipitation Using BCC_CSM over Eastern China in Summer Monsoon Season (222411)
Yaocun Zhang, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
An Assessment of the Subseasonal Forecast Performance in the Extended Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (244942)
Eric Sinsky, IMSG @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States, Yuejian Zhu, Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS, College Park, MD, United States, Wei Li, SAIC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States, Hong Guan, SRG at Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS, College Park, MD, United States and Christopher Melhauser, IMSG and EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States
The development of a statistical seasonal prediction model for the North East Asian summer monsoon rainfall (270021)
Yoojin Kim, APEC Climate Center, Climate Prediction Department, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South), MinHo Kwon, KIOST Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Busan, South Korea and Sae-Rim Yeo, APEC Climate Center, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South)
Probabilistic empirical prediction of seasonal climate: evaluation and potential applications (283241)
Jonathan Eden1, Bastien Dieppois1 and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh2, (1)Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience, Coventry University, Coventry, United Kingdom, (2)Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands
Causes and Model Skill of the Persistent Intense Rainfall and Flooding in Paraguay during the Austral Summer 2015-2016 (299087)
Angel G Munoz, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, James Doss-Gollin, Rice University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Houston, TX, United States and Max Pastén, Dirección de Meteorología e Hidrología, Asunción, Paraguay
Ensemble generation methods for CFSv2 subseasonal forecasts (301751)
Malaquias Peña1, Suranjana Saha1, Daryl Kleist2, Xingren Wu3 and John Woollen4, (1)National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States, (2)NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States, (3)Axiom at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States, (4)IMSG and EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, United States

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