PA53B:
Science to Action: Resilient Decision Making in the Midst of Uncertainty II Posters

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Session ID#: 27225

Session Description:
Decision makers who manage natural resources, infrastructure, and emergency response systems to support water, energy, and food security face a myriad of uncertainties when assessing risk. These uncertainties are likely to increase in the future as infrastructure ages, temperatures increase, precipitation patterns change and intensify, populations grow, and economies change. While probabilistic information and uncertainty have always been an integral part of planning, design, and management decisions, future changes in natural and human systems are forcing a re-assessment of how we understand and interpret risk. This session focuses on approaches that embrace uncertainty and work in partnership with decision makers to uncover ways to support adaptive management and resilient planning in the midst of an uncertain world. We seek innovators who bridge research and operations and welcome examples focused on improving day-to-day operations (e.g., streamflow forecasting, flood risk management) and long-term planning (e.g., planning and infrastructure design for sea-level rise).
Primary Convener:  Anna Maria Wilson, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States
Conveners:  Thomas Adams, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Water Center (NWC), Tuscaloosa, AL, United States, Julie A Vano, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and Francisco Munoz-Arriola, University of Nebraska Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, United States
Chairs:  Julie A Vano, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Anna Maria Wilson, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, Christopher Clavin, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute, Washington, DC, United States and Emily Sylak-Glassman, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute, Washington, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Christopher Clavin, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute, Washington, DC, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • H - Hydrology
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1803 Anthropogenic effects [HYDROLOGY]
1880 Water management [HYDROLOGY]
1884 Water supply [HYDROLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Navigating the science-policy spectrum: Opportunities to work on policies related to your research (296115)
Rachel Licker1, Brenda Ekwurzel2, Gretchen T Goldman2 and Marcia S DeLonge1, (1)Union of Concerned Scientists Washington DC, Washington, DC, United States, (2)Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, DC, United States
Extreme Precipitation, Stormwater, and Flooding in King County: Co-producing Research to Support Adaptation (222805)
Guillaume S Mauger1, Raquel Lorente-Plazas2, Eric P Salathe Jr3, Todd P Mitchell4, Jim Simmonds5, Se-Yeun Lee1, Katherine Hegewisch6, Michael Warner7 and Jason Won1, (1)University of Washington, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, WA, United States, (2)Meteored, Department of Meteorology, Almendricos, Spain, (3)University of Washington, Science and Technology Program, Bothell, WA, United States, (4)University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States, (5)King County, Water and Land Resources Division, Seattle, WA, United States, (6)University of California Merced, Management of Complex Systems, Merced, CA, United States, (7)University of Washington, Seattle, United States
Using Direct Policy Search to Identify Robust Strategies in Adapting to Uncertain Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge (286269)
Gregory George Garner, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States and Klaus Keller, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Department of Geosciences, University Park, PA, United States
Managed Retreat in New York after Sandy: Incentivizing Participation in High-Cost Areas (220774)
Simon McDonnell, Pooya Ghorbani, Courtney Wolf and Gina Stovall, New York Governor's Office of Storm Recovery, New York, NY, United States
Deciphering flood frequency curves from a coupled human-nature system perspective (255056)
Hong-Yi Li, Montana State University, Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Bozeman, MT, United States, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, University of Houston, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Houston, United States, Wei Wang, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, Sheng Ye, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China, Jiali Guo, Wuhan University Library, Wuhan, China, Guenter Bloeschl, Institute of Hydraulic Engineering, Vienna University of Technology (TU Wien), Vienna, Austria and L Ruby Leung, PNNL / Climate Physics, Richland, WA, United States
Prediction Uncertainty and Groundwater Management: Approaches to get the Most out of Probabilistic Outputs (247003)
Dirk Mallants, CSIRO Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia, Luk JM Peeters, CSIRO, Land and Water, Adelaide, SA, Australia and Chris Turnadge, CSIRO, 1) Environment, 2) Deep Earth Imaging Future Science Platform, Adelaide, SA, Australia
Coupling Adaptation Tipping Points and Engineering Options: New Insights for Resilient Water Infrastructure Replacement Planning (215958)
Kim Smet, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States, Richard de Neufville, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Cambridge, MA, United States and Maarten van der Vlist, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands
Minimizing transient influence in WHPA delineation: An optimization approach for optimal pumping rate schemes (228061)
Abelardo Rodriguez-Pretelin, University of Stuttgart, Stochastic Simulation and Safety Research for Hydrosystems, Stuttgart, Germany and Wolfgang Nowak, University of Stuttgart, Stochastic Simulation and Safety Research for Hydrosystems (IWS/SC SimTech), Stuttgart, Germany
Overcoming Uncertainty with Help From Citizens: ISeeChange Case Studies on Urban Flooding, Indoor Heat waves, and Drought to Inform Resilience Efforts, Hazard Mitigation, and Long-term Planning (259057)
Julia Kumari Drapkin and Lindsey Wagner, ISeeChange: Community Weather and Climate Journal, New Orleans, LA, United States
Critical Factors for Successful Practice of Disaster-Resilient Community in Urban City (272444)
Jui-Sheng Chou, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Department of Civil and Construction Engineering, Taipei, Taiwan and Jia-Huei Wu, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taipei, Taiwan
Evaluating confidence in the impact of regulatory nutrient reduction and assessing the competing impact of climate change (293949)
Ike Irby, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Gloucester Point, VA, United States and Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs, Virginia Inst Marine Science, Gloucester Point, United States

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