H21G:
Water and Society: Using Hydroclimatic Forecasts to Enhance Water Resources Decision Making I


Submit an Abstract to this Session


Session ID#: 62119

Session Description:
The past decade has seen numerous advancements in hydroclimatic forecasts in terms of accuracy, information context, and spatial and temporal resolution and scope. However, major questions remain: Why are forecasts still not readily utilized in water resources decision making? What are the specific barriers to real-world use of hydroclimatic forecasts? What can be done to increase the uptake of forecast information? This session invites scientists, engineers, and policy analysts to address these questions from a range of aspects including, but not limited to: 1) generating forecast information relevant to the needs of decision makers; 2) deriving useful and reliable information about forecast uncertainty; 3) integrating hydroclimatic forecasts with users’ behavioral and institutional settings; 4) improving information delivery technologies; and 5) using forecasts for the operation of water systems.
Primary Convener:  Paul J Block, University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States
Conveners:  Ximing Cai, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Urbana, United States, Hamid Moradkhani, The University of Alabama, Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering; Department of Computer Science, Tuscaloosa, United States and David W Watkins Jr, Michigan Technological Univ, Houghton, United States
Primary Liaison:  Paul J Block, University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States
Chairs:  Paul J Block, University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States, Hamid Moradkhani, The University of Alabama, Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering; Department of Computer Science, Tuscaloosa, United States and David W Watkins Jr, Michigan Technological Univ, Houghton, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Paul J Block, University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

1816 Estimation and forecasting [HYDROLOGY]
1833 Hydroclimatology [HYDROLOGY]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES]
6344 System operation and management [POLICY SCIENCES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

A Testbed to Analyze Colorado River Streamflow Forecasts and Operational Projections (450501)
Sarah Ann Baker1, James R Prairie2, Carly Jerla3, Alan Butler4, Edith A Zagona5, Balaji Rajagopalan5 and Andrew W Wood6, (1)Bureau of Reclamation, Boulder, United States, (2)Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, Boulder, United States, (3)Bureau of Reclamation, Office of the Chief Engineer, Boulder, United States, (4)Bureau of Reclamation, Lower Colorado Region, Boulder, United States, (5)University of Colorado at Boulder, Civil Environmental & Architectural Engineering, Boulder, United States, (6)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Atmospheric rivers and reservoir control: Combining short-term forecasts with clustering of weather regimes to inform conjunctive management in California (394145)
Jonathan D Herman, University of California Davis, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Davis, CA, United States and Scott Steinschneider, Cornell University, Ithaca, United States
Forecast for Blue Nile river flow in 2018: evaluation and regional responses (369453)
Annalise Blum1, Ben M Zaitchik1, Shu WU2, Ying Zhang3, Sarah Alexander2, Shraddhanand Shukla4, Paul J Block5 and Temesgen A. Yimanie6, (1)Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States, (2)University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States, (3)University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI, United States, (4)University of California Santa Barbara, Climate Hazards Center, Geography Department, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (5)University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States, (6)Jimma University, Environmental Health Science and Technology, Jimma, Ethiopia
What If Numerical Forecast Has No Skill? Using Emerging Rainfall Anomaly to Forecast State of Water Resources During Cape Town “Day Zero” Drought. (433014)
Piotr Wolski, Peter Johnston and Christopher David Jack, University of Cape Town, Climate System Analysis Group, Cape Town, South Africa
From Research to Operations to Decisions: Hydroclimatic Forecasting Advancements for Application to Regulation of Lake Superior Outflow and Water Resources Management in the Great Lakes (432308)
Lauren M Fry1, Deanna Apps1 and Andrew Gronewold2,3, (1)US Army Corps of Engineers - Detroit District, Office of Great Lakes Hydraulics and Hydrology, Detroit, MI, United States, (2)University of Michigan, School for Environment and Sustainability, Ann Arbor, United States, (3)NOAA-Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
Improving seasonal forecasts through the state of multiple large-scale climate signals to inform water management (Invited) (381044)
Andrea Castelletti Prof1, Marta Zaniolo2, Matteo Giuliani1 and Paul J Block3, (1)Politecnico di Milano, Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Milano, Italy, (2)Stanford University, Stanford, United States, (3)University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States
Improving Water Management Outcomes Through Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations: A Research and Development Effort to Inform Policy (Invited) (394224)
Cary Alan Talbot, US Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville, FL, United States

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