Kelly K Caylor^1,2, Tom P Evans³, Lyndon D Estes⁴, Justin Sheffield⁵, Noemi Vergopolan⁴, Natasha Krell⁶, Drew Gower⁷ and Zack Guido⁸, (1)University of California Santa Barbara, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (2)University of California Santa Barbara, Department of Geography, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (3)University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States, (4)Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States, (5)Princeton Climate Analytics, Princeton, NJ, United States, (6)University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (7)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (8)Climate Assessment for the Southwest, Tucson, AZ, United States