Mark Shortt¹, Ben Lishman², Katerina Stavrianaki^1,3, Aleksey V Marchenko⁴ and Peter R Sammonds¹, (1)University College London, Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, London, United Kingdom, (2)London South Bank University, School of Engineering, London, United Kingdom, (3)University College London, Department of Statistical Science, London, United Kingdom, (4)The University Centre in Svalbard, Longyearbyen, Norway