Nicky Wright^1,2, Michael L Roderick^1,2, Nerilie Abram^1,2, Benjamin Henley^3,4 and Anna Ukkola^1,2, (1)The Australian National University, Research School of Earth Sciences, Canberra, ACT, Australia, (2)The Australian National University, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Canberra, ACT, Australia, (3)University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Parkville, VIC, Australia, (4)Monash University, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Clayton, VIC, Australia