NG011
Stochastic Modelling in Atmosphere, Ocean, and Climate Dynamics

Session ID#: 71689

Session Description:
Stochastic approaches are increasingly important in atmosphere, ocean, and climate science.  Forecasting the state of the atmosphere-ocean-ice-land system in the presence of uncertainty is an important aspect of geoscience. One challenge in Earth system forecasting is providing accurate probabilistic predictions. Stochasticity can be applied across all levels of model complexity, from simple models to general circulation models and Earth-system models. In these approaches, critical but unresolved or poorly understood processes are modeled stochastically. Progress has been made in stochastic modeling of precipitation, clouds, gravity waves, ocean eddies, land-ice and sea-ice processes, as well as in hydromechanics and sub-surface hydrology. However, applications of increasing complexity require new and sophisticated computational tools and techniques. This session aims at bringing together the mathematical, statistical, and geophysical communities. It welcomes submissions related to stochastic processes in meteorology, oceanography, and climate science, including discussion of new modeling techniques, stochastic parameterization schemes, and data-driven stochastic modeling.
Index Terms:

1990 Uncertainty [INFORMATICS]
3319 General circulation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3336 Numerical approximations and analyses [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4490 Turbulence [NONLINEAR GEOPHYSICS]


Primary Convener:  Paul Williams, University of Reading, Meteorology, Earley Gate, Reading, United Kingdom
Conveners:  Cecile Penland, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States, Juan M. Restrepo, Univ of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States and Aneesh C Subramanian, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States
Primary Liaison:  Cecile Penland, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Modeling of p-order persistent time series by the modified Langevin equation (496393)
Zbigniew Czechowski, Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
 
A phase-space consideration of changing climate-PDF (Invited) (496576)
Jin-Song von Storch, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Ocean, Hamburg, Germany and Lucas Reimann, Institute for Geoscience and Meteorology University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
 
Generalized Langevin Equations and the Climate Response Problem. (505747)
Nicholas Wynn Watkins, London School of Economics and Political Science, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London, United Kingdom; University of Warwick, Physics, Coventry, United Kingdom, Sandra C Chapman, University of Warwick, Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, Coventry, United Kingdom, Aleksei Chechkin, Akhiezer Institute of Theoretical Physics,, Kharkiv, Ukraine, Ian Ford, University College London, London, United Kingdom, Rainer Klages, Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom and David Alan Stainforth, London School of Economics, GRI and CATS, London, United Kingdom
 
The stochastic climate model in action: hydrodynamic unprovoked variability in regional seas. (511325)
Hans von Storch1, Shengquan Tang2, Meng Zhang1 and Xueen Chen2, (1)Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht, Germany, (2)Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
 
Fractional relaxation noises, motions and the fractionalenergy balance equation (515303)
Shaun Lovejoy, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
 
Stochastic Physics Development in the NOAA Unified Forecast System (UFS) (555566)
Jian-Wen Bao1, Sara A. Michelson2, Lisa K Bengtsson3, Philip J Pegion3, Jeffrey Whitaker1 and Cecile Penland1, (1)NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences Division, ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Dynamics and the Multivariate t-Distribution (595019)
Cecile Penland, NOAA Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States and Prashant D Sardeshmukh, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Predicting Rare Events in Stochastic Resonance (613622)
Ludovico Theo Giorgini, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
 
Stochastic elements in parameterizations of turbulence, convection, and clouds (Invited) (627442)
Tapio Schneider1, Yair Cohen1, Jia He2, Anna Jaruga3 and Ignacio Lopez-Gomez1, (1)California Institute of Technology, Environmental Science and Engineering, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, (3)California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
See more of: Nonlinear Geophysics
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