GC017
Climatic and Food Security Impacts of Nuclear War

Session ID#: 72636

Session Description:
With continuing conflict in Kashmir between two nuclear nations, expanding numbers of nuclear states such as North Korea, as well as nuclear weapons modernization and abrogation of treaties by the United States and Russia, the possibility of nuclear war and its impacts on climate and agriculture remains a global threat.  This session will include presentations on credible scenarios for how nuclear war might be fought; smoke generation, including fuel loads and firestorms; physical and chemical properties of smoke; global and regional climate responses to the smoke, including on temperature, precipitation, and ozone; and impacts of the resulting climate changes on agriculture, ocean productivity, and food security; and observations and modeling of pyrocumulonimbus injection of smoke into the stratosphere, and subsequent self-lofting, which serves as a natural analog for the same processes modeled following nuclear war.  It provides an excellent example of geophysics research with important relevance to policy implications.
Index Terms:

0305 Aerosols and particles [ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE]
0340 Middle atmosphere: composition and chemistry [ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE]
1605 Abrupt/rapid climate change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3362 Stratosphere/troposphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]

Primary Convener:  Alan Robock, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
Conveners:  Lili Xia, Rutgers Univ, New Brunswick, NJ, United States and Owen B Toon, Univ Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
Primary Liaison:  Alan Robock, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
 
Rapid Expansion of Nuclear Arsenals by Pakistan and India Portends Regional and Global Catastrophes (495260)
Owen B Toon, Univ Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Charles Bardeen, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Alan Robock, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, Lili Xia, Rutgers Univ, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, Hans Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, Washington, United States, Matthew McKinzie, Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, United States, Roy J. Peterson, University of Colorado, Boulder, Department of Physics, Boulder, CO, United States, Cheryl S Harrison, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science, Port Isabel, TX, United States, Nicole S Lovenduski, University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States and Richard P Turco, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States
 
The importance of trade to food security: The case of the extreme climatic effect caused by a regional nuclear conflict (495618)
Gal Hochman1, Hainan Zhang1, Saketh Aleti2, Lili Xia3, Alan Robock4 and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe5, (1)Rutgers University New Brunswick, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (2)Researcher, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (3)Rutgers Univ, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (4)Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (5)Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States
 
A new ocean state after nuclear winter (506719)
Cheryl S Harrison, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science, Port Isabel, TX, United States, Tyler Rohr, Knauss/DOE, Washington, DC, United States, Alice K DuVivier, Univ Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States, Elizabeth Maroon, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, WA, United States, Charles Bardeen, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Nicole S Lovenduski, University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Alan Robock, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, Owen B Toon, Univ Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Joshua Livingston Coupe, Rutgers University, Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, Philipp Neubauer, Dragonfly Science, Wellington, New Zealand, Samantha Stevenson, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States and Jessica Stevens, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Port Isabel, TX, United States
 
Agriculture Responses To Nuclear Winter (508665)
Alan Robock1, Lili Xia1 and Charles Bardeen2, (1)Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Impacts of Nuclear War on Terrestrial Carbon Processes (508954)
Lili Xia, Rutgers University New Brunswick, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, Alan Robock, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, Charles Bardeen, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and Nicole S Lovenduski, University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States
 
A regional nuclear conflict has global implications for food security (517798)
Jonas Jaegermeyr1, Lili Xia2, Joshua Wright Elliott3, Christoph Mueller4, Christian Folberth5, Nikolay Khabarov5, Wenfeng Liu6, Sam S. Rabin7, Michael Joseph Puma8, Alison Heslin9, Charles Bardeen10, Owen B Toon11, Ian Foster12, Alan Robock13 and Florian Zabel14, (1)University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States, (2)Rutgers Univ, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (3)University of Chicago, Computation Institute, Chicago, IL, United States, (4)University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich, United Kingdom, (5)IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, (6)EAWAG Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Duebendorf, Switzerland, (7)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (8)Columbia University in the City of New York, Center for Climate Systems Research, Palisades, NY, United States, (9)Columbia University of New York, New York City, NY, United States, (10)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (11)Univ Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (12)University of Chicago, Computer Science, Chicago, IL, United States, (13)Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (14)Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Munich, Germany
 
Nuclear Winter Theory - A History Review (517907)
Georgiy L Stenchikov, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
 
Influence of smoke composition on climate effects from fires following nuclear war (Invited) (523147)
Charles Bardeen1, Owen B Toon2, Douglas Edward Kinnison3, Pengfei Yu4, Francis Vitt1 and Alan Robock5, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)Univ Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
 
Upper atmosphere smoke penetration from mass fires simulated in WRF (568586)
Stephanie Redfern1, Julie K Lundquist2, Domingo Munoz-Esparza3, Branko Kosovic3, Charles Bardeen3 and Brian Toon4, (1)University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)U. of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)University of Colorado at Boulder, ATOC/LASP, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Food Resilience in the Face of Global Nuclear War (603498)
Taylor Augustus Grove, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States and Deanna M Behring, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, College of Agricultural Sciences, University Park, PA, United States
 
Digital Image-based Modeling of Fuel Energy Distribution in Urban Areas (621905)
Yao Wang, University of Colorado at Boulder, Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Boulder, CO, United States and Yunping Xi, University of Colorado at Boulder, Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Climate Perturbation from a Regional Nuclear Exchange: Considering the Local Atmospheric State (622888)
Benjamin M Wagman, Katherine Ann Lundquist and Qi Tang, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
 
Urban Fuel Loads in Potential Nuclear Targets (623018)
Christopher Frishcosy, University of Colorado Boulder, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Boulder, CO, United States and Yunping Xi, University of Colorado at Boulder, Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, Boulder, CO, United States
 
A Large, Sustained El Niño-Like Response To Nuclear Conflict (492629)
Joshua Livingston Coupe, Rutgers University New Brunswick, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, Samantha Stevenson, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, Nicole S Lovenduski, University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Alan Robock, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, Cheryl S Harrison, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science, Port Isabel, TX, United States, Charles Bardeen, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and Brian Toon, University of Colorado at Boulder, ATOC/LASP, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Temporary slowdown of ocean acidification following a nuclear conflict (Invited) (493167)
Nicole S Lovenduski, University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Cheryl S Harrison, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science, Port Isabel, TX, United States, Holly Olivarez, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Charles Bardeen, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Brian Toon, University of Colorado at Boulder, ATOC/LASP, Boulder, CO, United States, Alan Robock, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States and Tyler Rohr, Knauss/DOE, Washington, DC, United States
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