B024
Building resilient agricultural systems supported by near-term climate and yield forecasts
Session ID#: 74793
Session Description:
Climate change will likely render crop yields less reliable. Economic risks connected to unreliable harvests can threaten small-holder farmers’ food security and livelihoods. A forecast of crop yields within the growing season, a few weeks ahead of the harvest, can help to mitigate these risks by enabling informed management decisions and adaptation planning before the occurrence of losses. For such yield outlooks, robust climate forecasts and apt crop models are required.
This session is dedicated to discuss approaches for within-season agricultural climate and yield forecasts, with a focus on (but not limited to) the tropics. This includes, for example, teleconnections of rainfall patterns with sea-surface temperatures, correlation of yields with remote sensing data or process-based modelling of plant growth until mid-season. Pathways towards the long-term goal of a climate-resilient agriculture will be discussed, including risk transfer solutions like crop insurances as a means to hedge against income losses.
Index Terms:
0402 Agricultural systems [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
0466 Modeling [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
0480 Remote sensing [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
1922 Forecasting [INFORMATICS]
Primary Convener: Bernhard Schauberger, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Conveners: Christoph Gornott1, Jonas Jägermeyr2 and Jascha Lehmann2, (1)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany(2)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Primary Liaison: Bernhard Schauberger, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
High resolution Geo-spatial yield estimation of rice to support crop insurance using bio-physical crop simulation model in India (487938)
Ponraj Arumugam1, Christoph Gornott2, Bernhard Schauberger3 and Abel Chemura Dr3, (1)Potsdam, brandenburg, Germany, (2)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany, (3)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Exploration of optimal hyperspectral wavebands for winter wheat yield prediction for plant breeding (496932)
Xuebin Yang1, Jesse Poland2 and Xu Wang2, (1)Kansas State University, Plant Pathology, Manhattan, KS, United States, (2)Kansas State University, Plant Pathology, Manhattan, United States
Bayesian Crop Model Optimization for Corn Yield Forecasting Over the US Corn Belt (517148)
Hanoi Medina, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, United States and Di Tian, Auburn University, Crop, Soil, and Environmental Science, Auburn, AL, United States
Simulation and seasonal prediction of irrigated cereal crop yields in data-scarce region using a hydrologic-groundwater-crop (HGC) modeling framework (520305)
Meijian Yang1, Guiling Wang2, Fahad Khan Khadim3, Rehenuma Lazin1, Muhammad Rezaul Haider3, Zoi Dokou1, Amvrossios C Bagtzoglou3 and Emmanouil N Anagnostou3, (1)University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Groton, CT, United States, (2)University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering & Center for Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States, (3)University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States
Coupling weather and field scale information to forecast strawberry yield on a weekly basis via machine learning approaches (527536)
Mahesh Lal Maskey, University of California Davis, Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, Davis, CA, United States, Tapan B Pathak, University of California Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Merced, CA, United States, Octavio Lagos, Universidad de Concepción, Departamento de Recursos Hídricos, Avda. Vicente Mendez #595, Chile, Camilo Ignacio Souto, Universidad de Concepción Avda, Departamento de Recursos Hídricos, Vicente Mendez #595, Chile and Surendra K. Dara, Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources University of California Cooperative Extension, San Luis Obispo, CA, United States
Utility of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Agricultural Decision Supports in Ethiopia (544009)
Eunjin Han1, Jemal Seid2, Walter Baethgen1, Kindie Tesfaye Fantaye3, Teferi Demissie4, Tufa Dinku5 and Dawit Solomon6, (1)International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, (2)Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, (3)International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, (4)Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, (5)International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, United States, (6)The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Modeling effects of environmental changes and management practices on CH4 and N2O emissions of rice production (544721)
Tzu-Shun Lin1, Shijie Shu1, Atul K Jain1 and Haroon S Kheshgi2, (1)University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States, (2)ExxonMobil R&E Company, Annandale, NJ, United States
Thermal Regime Agronomic Cereal Experiment: Crop Phenology (552206)
Gerard W Wall1, Laura M Olivieri1, Matthew M Conley1, Bernhard Schauberger2, John M Dyer1 and Frank Wechsung2, (1)USDA/ARS, Maricopa, AZ, United States, (2)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Modeling regional crop yield and irrigation amount for corn and soybean in Central U.S. (552221)
Zhe Zhang1, Fei Chen2, Michael Barlage3 and Yanping Li1, (1)University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada, (2)NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
In-season rice yield prediction for India through machine learning and ensemble analysis (563035)
Yu Mo, AIR Worldwide Boston, Boston, MA, United States, Jeffrey S. Amthor, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA, United States and Kazi F. Ahmed, AIR Worldwide, Boston, United States
Simple Seasonal Forecast on Monthly Precipitation for Southeast Asia Using Climate Indices (568291)
Yuji Masutomi1,2, Takahiro Takimoto3, Toshichika Iizumi3 and Kei Oyoshi4, (1)Ibaraki University, Mito, Japan, (2)Ibaraki University, College of Agriculture, Ami, Inashiki, Japan, (3)NIAES-NARO, Tsukuba, Japan, (4)Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
A Global Data Analysis Shows that Conservation Agriculture Can Achieve Yield Gains in Arid and Cool Regions for Several Major Crops (584123)
Yang SU, AgroParisTech, UMR ECOSYS, Thiverval-Grignon, France, Benoit Gabrielle Sr., AgroParisTech, Ecosys, Paris, France, David Makowski, INRA Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Paris Cedex 07, France and Damien Beillouin, INRA Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, UMR Agronomie, Paris Cedex 07, France
TROPOMI solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence improves the monitoring of crop productivity (629576)
Liyin He1, Christian Frankenberg1,2, Kaiyu Guan3, Troy Magney2, Philipp Koehler1, Vincent Humphrey1, Ying Sun4 and David B Lobell5, (1)California Institute of Technology, Environmental Science and Engineering, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (3)University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences, Urbana, IL, United States, (4)Cornell University, School of Integrative Plant Science, Ithaca, NY, United States, (5)Stanford University, Earth System Science, Stanford, CA, United States
