A076
High Impact Event Prediction on Subseasonal to Interannual Timescales

Session ID#: 76885

Session Description:
Subseasonal to interannual predictions have significant value to many sectors including agriculture, transportation, shipping, defense, and more. Advances in climate and weather modeling have led to extended use of models for prediction from weeks 3-4 to the interannual time-scale (i.e. sub-seasonal to decadal), spanning the weather and climate research communities.  This session highlights advances in sub-seasonal to interannual prediction of high impact phenomena, such as precipitation (i.e. riverine flooding, droughts, volatility, etc), temperature (i.e. land and marine heat waves, cold air outbreaks, etc), severe weather, tropical cyclones, and sea-ice variability, in conjunction with its associated extended user community and societal benefits. The session emphasizes emerging research that uniquely advances seamless weather-to-climate prediction through the creation of technology or optimization of existing configurations. Presentations highlighting impact based assessment of forecasts and applications for end users are also encouraged.
Co-Organized:
  • NH - Natural Hazards
Index Terms:

3354 Precipitation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4315 Monitoring, forecasting, prediction [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4316 Physical modeling [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Primary Convener:  Bradford Johnson, NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, Office of Weather and Air Quality, Silver Spring, MD, United States
Conveners:  Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, United States, Jessie Carman, NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, Office of Weather and Air Quality, Silver Spring, MD, United States and Andy Wood, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Primary Liaison:  Johnna Infanti, Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, MD, United States
 
Influence of the South Asian high intensity variability on the persistent heavy rainfall and heat waves in Asian monsoon regions (487602)
Wei Shang, Shaanxi Normal University, School of Geography and Tourism, Xi'an, China and Xuejuan Ren, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
 
The Active MJO of 2019: Propagation from the Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific and Consequences for Subseasonal Prediction of Mid-latitude Extreme Weather Events (490906)
Bradford Barrett, US Naval Academy, Oceanography, Annapolis, MD, United States, Pallav Ray, Florida Institute of Technology, Department of Marine and Environmental Systems, Melbourne, FL, United States and Julio Marin, Universidad de Valparaiso, Valparaiso, Chile
 
Predictability and Prediction of Hydroclimate in California (493336)
Jianzhong Wang1, Hongbing Yin2, Erik Reyes1 and Tara Smith1, (1)California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA, United States, (2)California Department of Water Resources, Bay-Delta Office, Sacramento, CA, United States
 
Could America’s Wettest Winter of 2018-19 Have Been Anticipated? (Invited) (499802)
Andrew Hoell, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States, Martin P Hoerling, NOAA, ESRL, Boulder, CO, United States and Jon K. Eischeid, NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Diagnostic Verification of Heat Wave Forecasts using SubX (503177)
Trent Ford, Southern Illinois University Carbondale, Geography and Environmental Resources, Carbondale, IL, United States and Paul Dirmeyer, COLA, Fairfax, VA, United States
 
Assessing PV Streamer Activity and its Relationship with TC Predictability in Subseasonal Forecasts (503595)
Philippe Pierre Papin1,2, Carolyn A. Reynolds2 and Matthew Janiga2, (1)National Research Council Postdoctoral Associateship, Monterey, CA, United States, (2)US Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA, United States
 
Toward Consistent Physical Constant Sets for Interoperable Earth System Models (506508)
Raffaele Montuoro1,2, Sue Chen3, Larry Marx4, Steve Goldhaber5, Neil P Barton6, Timothy J Campbell7, Cecelia DeLuca1,2, Bin Li8,9, David McCarren10, Jessica Meixner11, Mariana Vertenstein12, Niki Zadeh13, Johnna Infanti14, Bonnie R. Brown15, Rocky Dunlap12 and Gerhard Theurich16,17, (1)CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA, United States, (4)Center for Ocean-Atmospheric-Land Studies Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States, (5)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)Naval Research Lab, Monterey, CA, United States, (7)Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (8)IMSG, College Park, MD, United States, (9)National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States, (10)Oceanographer of the Navy, Silver Spring, MD, United States, (11)NOAA National Center for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, United States, (12)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (13)NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States, (14)Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, MD, United States, (15)NOAA Ocean and Atmospheric Research, Office of Weather and Air Quality, College Park, MD, United States, (16)SAIC, Reston, VA, United States, (17)Naval Research Lab Monterey, Monterey, CA, United States
 
Assessing ENSO summer teleconnections and impacts on North America in GCMs (537493)
Bor-Ting Jong, Columbia University of New York City, New York, NY, United States, Mingfang Ting, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY, United States and Richard Seager, Lamont Doherty Earth Obs, Palisades, NY, United States
 
State of the Science and Future Directions for S2S Severe Weather Prediction (Invited) (545924)
Adam Clark, NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK, Norman, OK, United States
 
Subseasonal Variability of Rossby Wave Breaking and Impacts on Tropical Cyclones during the North Atlantic Warm Season (554765)
Weiwei LI, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Developmental Testbed Center (DTC), Boulder, CO, United States, Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, United States, Gan Zhang, Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton, NJ, United States, Melinda Peng, Naval Research Lab, Monterey, CA, United States, Stanley G Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, GSD, Boulder, United States and Ming Zhao, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
 
Convective-permitting modeling for retrospective sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting using the framework of the Coordinated Regional Ensemble Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) (558855)
Christopher L Castro, University of Arizona, Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, AZ, United States, Hsin-I Chang, Univ of AZ-Atmos Sciences, Tucson, AZ, United States, Andreas F Prein, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States and Melissa S Bukovsky, National Center for Atmospheric Research, CISL&RAL/RISC, Boulder, CO, United States
 
An Advanced Global Aerosol Model for Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Predictions – Model Evaluation Study (560407)
Ming Liu, Peng Xian, Edward J Hyer, Kevin Viner and Douglas L Westphal, Naval Research Lab Monterey, Marine Meteorology, Monterey, CA, United States
 
Characteristics of Summer Regional persistent extreme precipitation events and their typical atmospheric circulation patterns over Eastern China (578723)
Yiming Xu and Xuguang Sun, Nanjing University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China
 
On the Seamless Prediction of Weather and Climate Extremes and Predictability on Subseasonal and Seasonal Climate Timescales using Multi-Model Ensembles (605501)
Dan C Collins1, Emily Becker1, Johnna Infanti1, Emerson Lajoie1 and Sarah Strazzo2, (1)Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, MD, United States, (2)Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, MD, United States
 
Interference Between MJO and ENSO Teleconnection Signals Impacts US Rainfall (606719)
Marybeth Arcodia, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States, Ben P Kirtman, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, FL, United States and Leo Siqueira, RSMAS, Miami, FL, United States
 
Predictability of Flash Drought in the Continental United States (607937)
Hailan Wang, Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, United States, Anthony DeAngelis, Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, United States, Randal D Koster, NASA Goddard SFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Yehui Chang, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States and Siegfried D Schubert, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
 
The importance of past MJO activity in determining the future state of the midlatitude circulations on S2S timescales (609049)
Tseng Kai-Chih, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, Elizabeth A Barnes, Colorado State University Fort Collins, Fort Collins, CO, UNITED STATES and Eric D Maloney, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO, United States
 
Predicting Wildfire Favorable Conditions in California at Subseasonal to Seasonal Lead Times Using Remote Predictors (620756)
Ciara Dorsay1, Tom Murphree2, Kellen Jones2 and Annabelle Norman3, (1)University of California Berkeley, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)Naval Postgraduate School, Department of Meteorology, Monterey, CA, United States, (3)York School, Monterey, CA, United States
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