A073
Forcings, Climate Sensitivity and Feedbacks in the WCRP CMIP6 Ensemble

Session ID#: 77226

Session Description:
The purpose of this session is to provide a platform for the discussion of the behavior of Earth System models (ESMs) under the WCRP CMIP6 protocol. In particular, we invite contributions on in-depth analysis of the differences in forcing and response as it pertains to the diagnosis of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) and other Earth system feedbacks. Early analyses (especially during the CMIP6 workshop in March 2019) show that while for several CMIP6 models the ECS is similar to their CMIP5 counterpart (from about 6 years ago), some have a higher ECS. It is therefore of high interest to understand the reasons for such changes, from both variations in forcings and feedbacks. In addition, we are looking for contributions of new methods that use observations to further constrain uncertainties in key climate feedbacks, projections and policy relevant metrics such as the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions (TCRE).
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • WCRP: World Climate Research Programme -
Index Terms:

1620 Climate dynamics [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1627 Coupled models of the climate system [GLOBAL CHANGE]

Primary Convener:  J F Lamarque, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Conveners:  Julie Arblaster, Monash University, School of Earth, Atmosphere & Environment, Clayton, VIC, Australia, Veronika Eyring, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany and Gerald A Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States
Primary Liaison:  J F Lamarque, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
 
Climate Sensitivity and Carbon Feedbacks in UK Earth System Models: HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1 (Invited) (492239)
Alistair Sellar1, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo2, Timothy Andrews3, Andy Wiltshire4, Jane Patricia Mulcahy5, Colin Jones4 and Chris Jones4, (1)Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services, Exeter, United Kingdom, (2)Met Office Hadley center for Climate Change, Exeter, United Kingdom, (3)Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom, (4)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, (5)Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Exeter, United Kingdom
 
Forcing, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 (493451)
Mark D Zelinka1, Peter Martin Caldwell1, Stephen A Klein1, Karl E. Taylor2 and Stephen Po-Chedley3, (1)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, (2)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Livermore, CA, United States, (3)University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States
 
Assessment of CMIP6 Climate Model Simulations of Recent Changes in Earth’s Radiation Budget Using CERES Observations (506616)
Norman G Loeb, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, United States, Hailan Wang, SSAI, Hampton, VA, United States, Richard Philip Allan, University of Reading, READING, United Kingdom, Timothy Andrews, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom, Kyle Armour, University of Washington, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences and School of Oceanography, Seattle, WA, United States, Cole Jason, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, Canada, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Palaiseau, Palaiseau Cedex, France, Piers Forster, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom, Andrew Gettelman, NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, Thorsten Mauritsen, Stockholm University, Department of Meteorology, Stockholm, Sweden, Yi Ming, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, David Paynter, NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States, Cristian Proistosescu, University of Washington, JISAO, Seattle, WA, United States, Malte F Stuecker, IBS Center for Climate Physics, Pusan, South Korea, Ulrika Willén, SMHI, Norrkoping, Sweden and Klaus Wyser, Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
 
Quantifying Uncertainties in Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Feedbacks from CMIP5 to CMIP6 (511469)
John Virgin and Christopher G Fletcher, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
 
Transient Climate Simulations with NASA GISS Climate Model. (522358)
Larissa Nazarenko, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States and Nikolai Tausnev, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States
 
High Equilibrium and Transient Climate Sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model: Evolution from CESM1 to CESM2 (528062)
Julio T Bacmeister1, Cecile Hannay2, Andrew Gettelman2, Richard B Neale2, David M Lawrence3, Keith T Lindsay2 and David A Bailey3, (1)University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Evaluating Differences in Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity between GFDL CMIP5 and CMIP6 Climate Models (Invited) (538039)
David Paynter1, Levi Silvers2, Fabien Paulot3, Pu Lin4 and Larry Wayne Horowitz1, (1)NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, (4)NOAA GFD Lab-Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
 
Climate Sensitivity, Feedbacks, and Forcing: 4x/2 = 2x? (580874)
Maria Rugenstein, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany and Yiyu Zheng, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
 
ECS, Climate Feedback, and TCRE: A Comparison of CMIP6 Values to Estimates Inferred from the Century-Long Climate Record (596330)
Ross J Salawitch1, Austin Patrick Hope2, Laura McBride3, Timothy Canty2, Walter Robert Tribett2 and Brian Francis Bennett4, (1)University of Maryland, College Park, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD, United States, (2)University of Maryland College Park, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD, United States, (3)University of Maryland College Park, Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, College Park, MD, United States, (4)University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD, United States
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