GC012
CLIMATE EXTREMES: patterns, mechanisms and attribution

Session ID#: 77229

Session Description:
Extreme water cycle events such as droughts and floods represent the greatest impacts of climate variability and change on coupled energy-water-land systems, and consequently on our environment and society. Thus, understanding and predicting single and compound extreme events related to the water cycle is critical for securing water, energy, and food supplies and for effective decision-making. However, this presents significant scientific challenges due to gaps in our understanding, limitations in modeling approaches, and lack of observations. This session invites contributions that advance understanding of water cycle extremes from weather to climate timescales and/or their impacts on the coupled energy-water-land systems, including theoretical research, data analysis, numerical modeling, and/or data-model integration. This session also welcomes studies in relevant areas such as convection processes and modeling, impacts of climate variability and change on water cycle extremes, surface/subsurface water interactions, managed and unmanaged ecosystems, and environmental and societal impacts of extreme events.
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1620 Climate dynamics [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Primary Convener:  Chris C Funk, University of California Santa Barbara, Geography, Santa Barbara, CA, United States
Conveners:  Stephanie Herring, NOAA Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Daniel Mitchell, University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom and Andrew Hoell, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States
Primary Liaison:  Chris C Funk, USGS, Sioux Falls, SD, United States
 
The Importance of Dynamical Mechanisms in Understanding Human Influences on September 2013 Northeast Colorado Extreme Rains (488123)
Martin P Hoerling, NOAA Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Xiaowei Quan, NOAA Boulder, ESRL, Boulder, CO, United States, Jon Eischeid, NOAA, ESRL, Boulder, CO, United States, Linyin Cheng, University of Arkansas at Fayetteville, Geosciences, Fayetteville, AR, United States and Judith Perlwitz, NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Downscaling Climate Change Impacts to Local Weather for Regional Climate Change Assessment: The Verde River Watershed (489131)
PattiMichelle Sheaffer, Aerospace Corporation El Segundo (retired), El Segundo, CA, United States
 
On the Importance of Global Observational Datasets and Intercomparisons for the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge on Extremes (Invited) (491278)
Lisa Alexander, University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney, NSW, Australia
 
Communication of attribution results (492292)
Peter Stott, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
 
Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Detection & Attribution and Projections (493398)
Thomas R Knutson, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States and The WMO Task Team on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change
 
What are the current and future properties of coinciding aboveground, surface and belowground extreme high temperature pulses, and are these events meaningful? (493458)
Matthew Petrie1, John B Bradford2, Caitlin Andrews3, David M Bell4, Daniel Schlaepfer5 and William K. Lauenroth5, (1)University of Nevada Las Vegas, School of Life Sciences, Las Vegas, NV, United States, (2)U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ, United States, (3)USGS Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ, United States, (4)US Forest Service Corvallis, Corvallis, OR, United States, (5)Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States
 
Unravelling the role of large-scale climate variability and of the mean sea level in the high-percentile sea levels time evolution: a Bayesian statistical approach (498648)
Jeremy Rohmer and Goneri Le Cozannet, BRGM, Orléans, France
 
Variability and predictability of North Atlantic cold-season atmospheric river occurrence frequency in a set of high-resolution atmospheric simulations (499277)
Chuxuan Li, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, United States, Wei Mei, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Department of Marine Sciences, Chapel Hill, NC, United States and Youichi Kamae, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
 
Underestimated changes in hot extremes under climate warming due to current over-drying global climate models. (501152)
Nicolas Freychet1, Gabriele C Hegerl1, Dann Mitchell2 and Matthew Collins3, (1)University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9, United Kingdom, (2)University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom, (3)University of Exeter, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom
 
Underestimated risk of record-shattering extremes (506057)
Erich M Fischer, ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
 
The Natural Hurricane Barrier Along the U.S. Southeast Coast, Past And Future (507872)
James P Kossin1, Mingfang Ting2, Suzana Camargo3 and Cuihua Li2, (1)NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Center for Weather and Climate, Madison, WI, United States, (2)Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY, United States, (3)Columbia University, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States
 
Intensification of the Hydrologic Cycle and Rainfall Extremes due to Tropospheric Melting Level Height Increases (508734)
Andreas F Prein, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States and Andrew Heymsfield, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Recent decadal changes in heat waves over China: drivers and mechanisms (515388)
Qin Su, Yunnan University, Kunming, China
 
Detection of anthropogenic influence on fixed threshold indices of extreme temperature (515406)
Hong Yin, National Climate Center, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China and Ying Sun, National Climate Center, China, Beijing, China
 
Attributable human-induced changes in the magnitude of flooding in the Houston, Texas region during Hurricane Harvey (516575)
Michael F Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States and Christopher Charles Sampson, Fathom, Bristol, United Kingdom
 
Low-Pressure Systems and Extreme Precipitation in the Southeast and East Asian Monsoon Region (517559)
Yujia You1,2 and Mingfang Ting1, (1)Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, (2)Columbia University of New York, New York, NY, United States
 
Observed and projected hydro-climate extremes for Southeast Alaska using dynamically downscaled reanalysis and climate model simulations (522698)
Rick Lader, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States
 
Atmospheric circulation characteristics associated with extreme high water level events at Foggy Island Bay, Alaska (526211)
Peter Bieniek, International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, AK, United States, Li H Erikson, USGS, Santa Cruz, CA, United States and Jeremy Kasper, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States
 
The Extreme Weather Event Real-time Attribution Machine (EWERAM) - An Overview (528037)
Jordis Sonnhild Tradowsky, Gregory E Bodeker and Leroy Bird, Bodeker Scientific, Alexandra, New Zealand
 
Impacts of Precipitation Intensification on Runoff, Sediment Yield, and Plant Available Water in Central Oklahoma (540314)
Sanjeev Joshi1, Jurgen Garbrecht1, David P Brown2, Xunchang John Zhang3, Phil Busteed1 and Xiangming Xiao4, (1)USDA ARS, Grazinglands Research Laboratory, El Reno, OK, United States, (2)USDA Southern Plains Climate Hub, El Reno, OK, United States, (3)Grazinglands Research Laboratory, USDA-ARS, El Reno, OK, United States, (4)Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, Center for Spatial Analysis, University of Oklahoma, Norman, United States
 
Heatwave and global circulation patterns teleconnections over India (546342)
Aditya Kumar Dubey, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Bhopal, Bhopal, India and Pankaj Kumar, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Bhopal, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Bhopal, India
 
Landfalling Droughts: Global tracking of moisture deficits from the oceans onto land (547741)
Julio Enrique Herrera-Estrada and Noah S Diffenbaugh, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
 
Verifying single-event attribution results for unprecedented hot, wet and dry events (555209)
Noah S Diffenbaugh, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
 
Extreme Wet Bulb Temperatures in China: the Significant Role of Moisture (564323)
Pinya Wang1, L. Ruby Leung2, Jian Lu2, Fengfei Song3 and JP Tang4, (1)School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (3)Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China, (4)Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
 
Contrasting impacts of meteorological extremes across domains (584241)
Rene Orth1, Miguel D Mahecha2, Sungmin Oh1, Markus Reichstein2 and Jakob Zscheischler3, (1)Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany, (2)Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Department of Biogeochemical Integration, Jena, Germany, (3)University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
 
Challenges Associated with Multi-Hazard Characterization of Landfalling Hurricanes (587504)
Scott J Weaver, National Institute of Standards and Technology Gaithersburg, Gaithersburg, MD, United States
 
A hybrid model-observation analysis of changes in global flood hazard (587526)
Hong Xuan Do1, Fang Zhao2, Westra Seth3, Michael Leonard3, Lukas Gudmundsson4, Julien Boulange5, Jinfeng Chang6, Philippe Ciais7, Dieter Gerten8, Simon Gosling9, Hannes Mueller Schmied10, Tobias Stacke11 and Yoshihide Wada12, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (2)University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States, (3)University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia, (4)ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (5)National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan, (6)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette, France, (7)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette Cedex, France, (8)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, (9)University of Nottingham, School of Geography, Nottingham, United Kingdom, (10)Goethe University Frankfurt, Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Institute of Physical Geography, Frankfurt am Main, Germany, (11)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, (12)International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
 
Observed Climatological Relationships between Precipitable Water and Extreme Precipitation in the Contiguous United States (590111)
Kenneth Kunkel, North Carolina State University Raleigh, North Carolina Institute for Climate and Satellites, Raleigh, NC, United States, Scott E Stevens, CICS-NC, Asheville, NC, United States, Laura E Stevens, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - North Carolina (CICS-NC), Asheville, NC, United States and Thomas Richard Karl, Climate and Weather, L.L.C., Asheville, NC, United States
 
REGIONALIZATION OF MONSOON PRECIPITATION PATTERNS IN TROPICAL CLIMATE AREAS (591235)
Alok Kumar Samantaray, Jatni, Odisha, India, Adway Mitra, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India, Meenu Ramadas, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, Department of Civil Engineering, School of Infrastructure, Bhubaneswar, India and Rabindra Kumar Panda, Professor, School of Infrastructure, Bhubaneswar, India
 
Centennial shifts in flood frequency and magnitude over the last thousand years in Western Norway (598279)
Øyvind Paasche1, Monika Øksnes2, Eivind Støren1, Jostein Bakke3, Lu Li4, Kolbjørn Engeland5 and Hirt Ann6, (1)Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, (2)University of Bergen, Earth Science, Bergen, Norway, (3)University of Bergen, Department of Earth Science, Bergen, Norway, (4)Uni Research Climate & Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, (5)Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway, (6)ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Earth Science, Zurich, Switzerland
 
Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change and Natural Variability on Hydrological Extreme Events over Europe (604802)
Ralf Ludwig1, Anne Frigon2, Alain Mailhot3, Martin Leduc4, François Brissette5, Jens Weismueller6, Richard Turcotte7, Fabian von Trentini1, Marco Braun4, Magdalena Mittermeier1, Holger Komischke8, Florian Willkofer1 and Raul R. Wood1, (1)Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Geography, Munich, Germany, (2)Ouranos - Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change, Montreal, QC, Canada, (3)Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Eau-Terre-Environnement, Québec, QC, Canada, (4)Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada, (5)École de Technologie Supérieure, Montreal, QC, Canada, (6)Leibniz Supercomputing Centre, Munich, Germany, (7)MDDELCC, Quebec, Canada, (8)Bavarian State Office for the Environment, Augsburg, Germany
 
Monthly trends of heat waves in South Central Chile (30º - 42ºS) during recent decades. (609648)
Alvaro Gonzalez-Reyes1, Maisa Rojas2, Martín Jacques-Coper3 and Rene Garreaud1, (1)University of Chile, Departamento de Geofísica y ​Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR2), Santiago, Chile, (2)Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Geofísica ​y Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR2), Santiago, Chile, (3)University of Concepción, Department of Geophysics, Concepción, Chile
 
Assessing the Causes of the Post-1996 Shift in Extreme Precipitation Over the Northeastern United States (617516)
Huanping Huang1, Jonathan Winter2, Erich C Osterberg1 and Justin S Mankin2, (1)Dartmouth College, Department of Earth Sciences, Hanover, NH, United States, (2)Dartmouth College, Department of Geography, Hanover, NH, United States
 
Assessing Human Contribution to the Longest Duration of Heat Wave Observed in South Korea during 2018 Summer (631325)
Seung-Ki Min1, Yeon-Hee Kim1, Sang-Min Lee1, Sarah Naomi Sparrow2, Sihan Li2, Fraser C Lott3 and Peter Stott3, (1)Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, South Korea, (2)Oxford e-Research Centre, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom, (3)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
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