A054
Decadal Climate Variability – Mechanisms, Predictability and Prediction

Session ID#: 77414

Session Description:
Interest in decadal variability and predictability has been on the rise since the 1990’s. The feasibility of decadal prediction was studied during the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and will continue under CMIP6. Achieving the seamless prediction of climate from the subseasonal to the decadal time scales is a primary goal of the World Climate Research Program, which is now preparing an experimental, operational near-term forecast under a “Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update”. Yet, there remain gaps in the fundamental understanding of the sources and impact of decadal climate variability and predictability, as well as in the operational aspects of simulating and predicting decadal variability. This session is dedicated to facilitate presentations and discussion of the recent progress in addressing these gaps. We also welcome abstracts dealing with emerging applications of near-term climate prediction for mitigation and for adaptation to climate variability and change.
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • WCRP: World Climate Research Programme -
Index Terms:

3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4513 Decadal ocean variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]

Primary Convener:  Rym Msadek, CNRS/CERFACS, Toulouse, France
Conveners:  Antonietta Capotondi, University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, Rosemary Eade, Met Office Hadley center for Climate Change, Exeter, EX1, United Kingdom and Yochanan Kushnir, Columbia Univ, Palisades, NY, United States
Primary Liaison:  Rym Msadek, CNRS/CERFACS, Toulouse, France
 
On the mechanisms of decadal variability modulation in a warming climate (486513)
Yun Yang, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
 
Use of Historical Data to Forecast Near-term Regional Climate Change (488690)
Yuchuan Lai, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States and David A Dzombak, Carnegie Mellon Univ, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
 
Reconstructions of the AMOC in the historical period using surface data with the IPSL coupled model (490600)
Victor Estella Perez, LOCEAN-IPSL, UCM, Paris, France, Juliette Mignot, LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris cedex 05, France, Eric Guilyardi, LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris, France, Didier Swingedouw, University of Bordeaux 1, Pessac, France and Gilles P Reverdin, Sorbonne Université - CNRS/IRD/MNHN, LOCEAN, Paris, France
 
Improved Decadal Predictability of East Asian Summer Monsoon System in a Coupled Climate Model (492749)
Feifei Li, Tsinghua University, Department of Earth System Science, Beijing, China and Bin Wang, Insititute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
 
Understanding and Prediction of Decadal Climate Variability – Where Are We? (493106)
Vikram M Mehta, Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Catonsville, MD, United States
 
Interdecadal Change in the Relationship of Northwest China Wintertime Precipitation with ENSO and North Atlantic SST (495757)
Xiaoxue Yin, Beijing, Beijing, China and Lian-Tong Zhou, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China
 
Wintertime Turbulent Heat Flux Anomaly and Local Air-Sea Interaction over the North Pacific on Different Time Scales (497981)
Jiabei Fang, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
 
Seeking value in decadal predictions (Invited) (498860)
Markus Donat1, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes2, Roberto Bilbao3, Louis-Philippe Caron4, Carlos Delgado Torres3, Leandro Díaz3, Yiling Liu5, Pablo Ortega6, Yohan Ruprich-Robert3, Balakrishnan Solaraju3, Deborah Verfaillie3 and Simon Wild3, (1)Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona, Spain, (2)Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Barcelona, Spain, (3)Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain, (4)Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain, (5)University of New South Wales, Kensington, NSW, Australia, (6)Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Earth Sciences, Barcelona, Spain
 
Assessment of CanESM5 decadal hindcasts (502641)
Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Woo-Sung Lee, Viatchelsav V. Kharin, William J Merryfield and George Boer, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
 
Variability of Atmospheric Circulation and Geomagnetic Field in the Northern Hemisphere (506247)
Vazira Martazinova1, Volodymyr Bakhmutov2 and Galyna Melnyk2, (1)Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine, (2)S.I. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
 
The abyssal origins of North Atlantic decadal predictability (512348)
Stephen G Yeager, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Internal variabilities and climate change signals, an analysis of climate model and observational data (525636)
Chengxing Zhai, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, Jonathan H. Jiang, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States and Hui Su, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
 
Processes linking the intensity of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability to the climate impacts over Europe as assessed from CMIP6/DCPP-C pacemaker experiments (539054)
Christophe Cassou, CERFACS European Centre for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation, Toulouse Cedex 01, France, Said Qasmi, Meteo-France, Toulouse, France and Julien Boé, CNRS-Cerfacs, Toulouse, France
 
The Human System and Climate Models: Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems. (551199)
Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland College Park, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD, United States, Jorge R Rivas, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Political Science, Minneapolis, MN, United States and Safa Motesharrei, University of Maryland College Park, Institute for Physical Science and Technology, College Park, MD, United States
 
Enhancing Skill of Initialized Decadal Predictions using a Dynamic Model of Drift (561926)
Balu Nadiga1, Tarun Verma2, Wilbert Weijer2 and Nathan M Urban2, (1)Los Alamos, NM, United States, (2)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
 
North and South Pacific Meridional Modes contributions to ENSO and Tropical Decadal Variability (562893)
Giovanni Liguori, Monash University, School of Earth, Atmosphere & Environment, Clayton, VIC, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Clayton, Australia and Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Georgia Inst Tech, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States
 
Are predictability timescales for Atlantic upper ocean heat content in models consistent with observations? (566298)
Martha W Buckley1, Timothy M DelSole1, Laurie L Trenary2 and Laure Zanna3, (1)George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States, (2)Center for Land-Ocean-Atmospheric Studies Fairfax, Atmospheric,Oceanic, and Earth Science, Fairfax, VA, United States, (3)University of Oxford, Dept. of Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom
 
Contrasting Decadal and Inter-decadal Components of ENSO-like Variability in the Pacific (567977)
Kewei Lyu1, Xuebin Zhang1 and John Church2, (1)CSIRO, Oceans & Atmosphere, Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), Hobart, TAS, Australia, (2)Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
 
Investigating Inter-annual to Decadal Predictability from Different Initial ENSO States (573944)
Yiling Liu, University of New South Wales, Kensington, NSW, Australia, Markus Donat, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain, Annette Hirsch, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia and Matthew H England, Univ New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
 
Decadal prediction skill of BCC-CSM1.1 with different initialization strategies (574824)
Qingquan Li1, Xiaoge Xin2, Min Wei3, Wei Zhou4, Yong Luo5 and Zongci Zhao5, (1)China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing, China, (2)China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beiging, China, (3)China Meteorological Administration, National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing, China, (4)Chinese Academy of Sciences, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Guangzhou, China, (5)Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
 
Impacts and associated predictability of a persistent NAO forcing (579702)
Juliette Mignot1, Yohan Ruprich-Robert2, Jon Robson3, Julie Deshayes4 and Guillaume Gastineau1, (1)LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris cedex 05, France, (2)Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain, (3)University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, United Kingdom, (4)Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, LOCEAN, Paris, France
 
Sensitivity of decadal climate predictions in the North Atlantic to anomaly initialisation choices (581533)
Ingo Bethke, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway, Francois Counillon, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, Bergen, Norway, Yiguo Wang, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway and Noel Keenlyside, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre, Bergen, Norway
 
The Influence of Oceanic Stochastic Forcing on the Atmospheric Response to Midlatitude North Pacific SST Anomalies (590156)
Xuguang Sun1, Tao Lingfeng2 and Xiu-Qun Yang2, (1)Nanjing University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China, (2)Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
 
Quantifying the relative contributions of aerosols and Decadal Variabilities to the mid-20th-century global cooling: a fresh view of middle tropospheric temperature meridional gradient (594633)
Chenrui Diao and Yangyang Xu, Texas A&M University College Station, College Station, TX, United States
 
GISS CMIP6 Simulations of the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent With and Without Emissions of Greenhouse Gases (607682)
David Halpern, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, Larissa Nazarenko, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States, Gavin A Schmidt, NASA/GISS, New York, NY, United States and Nikolai Tausnev, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States
 
Examining the role of aerosol forcing for multi-decadal Atlantic variability in a model ensemble sampling aerosol forcing uncertainty (609929)
Andrea Dittus, Ed Hawkins, Laura Wilcox, Dan Hodson, Jon Robson and Rowan Sutton, University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, United Kingdom
 
Rethinking the definitions of modes of decadal climate variability (612646)
Karsten Haustein1, Zeke Hausfather2, Peter Jacobs3, Victor Venema4, Aneesh C Subramanian5, Friederike Elly Luise Otto1, Kevin Cowtan6, Robert G Way7, Bethan White8 and Andrew P Schurer9, (1)University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, (2)Berkeley Earth, Berkeley, CA, United States, (3)George Mason University, Environmental Science and Policy, Fairfax, VA, United States, (4)University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany, (5)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States, (6)University of York, York, United Kingdom, (7)University of Ottawa, Geography, Environment and Geomatics, Ottawa, ON, Canada, (8)Monash University, Clayton, Australia, (9)University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9, United Kingdom
 
Using the Ocean to Identify Forecasts of Opportunity for Decadal Prediction (618341)
Benjamin A Toms1, Elizabeth A Barnes2 and James W Hurrell1, (1)Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO, United States, (2)Colorado State University Fort Collins, Fort Collins, CO, UNITED STATES
 
Prospects for Year 2 climate forecasts with useful skill (622520)
Matthew Newman1, Hui Ding2, Yan Wang2 and Sang-Ik Shin3, (1)University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, United States, (3)University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Exploring North Atlantic and North Pacific Decadal Climate Prediction Using Self-Organizing Maps (623183)
Qinxue Gu, State College, Pennsylvania, United States and Melissa Gervais, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, University Park, PA, United States
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