A061
Dynamic and Thermodynamic Processes, Data Assimilation, and Prediction of the Intensity and Structure of Typhoons

Session ID#: 77790

Session Description:
The prediction of intensity and structure of typhoons has been extremely challenging due to numerous factors. Included are lack of understanding the key dynamic and thermodynamic processes, large uncertainties from the complex environments and internal dynamics, multiscale interactions among different physical processes (radiation, planetary boundary layer, microphysics, etc.) and various geophysical components (such as ocean, land and atmosphere), suboptimal assimilation of observations due to approximation and limitation of current analysis techniques (such as variational, ensemble, and hybrid methods), a large gap between the scales that observations and the numerical modeling system might represent or resolve, significant systematic error (e.g., “bias”) in numerical prediction systems, and limited representations of physical processes in numerical models. This session solicits abstracts in studying the key dynamic and thermodynamic processes of typhoon structure and intensity changes and in developing data assimilation algorithms and physical parameterization schemes to improve numerical simulation and prediction of typhoons.
Index Terms:

3315 Data assimilation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3372 Tropical cyclones [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3373 Tropical dynamics [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]


Primary Convener:  Zhe-Min Tan, Nanjing University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China
Conveners:  Yuqing Wang, Univ Hawaii, International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI, United States, Lili Lei, Nanjing University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China and Yinglong Xu, National Meteorological Center, Beijing, China
Primary Liaison:  Lili Lei, Nanjing University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China
 
Analysis on numbers and intensity characteristics of typhoon landed on South China (492067)
Xiaoli Luo, Guangxi Weather Service Center, Nanning, China
 
A typhoon intensity prediction method based on Maximum Relevance Minimum Redundancy algorithm and random forest algorithm (495804)
Huasheng Zhao and Li He, Guangxi Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Nanning, China
 
Adaptive localization for satellite radiance observations in global and regional models (495969)
Lili Lei1, Jeffrey Whitaker2, Jeffrey L Anderson3 and Zhe-Min Tan1, (1)Nanjing University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China, (2)NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Westward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification over the Northwestern Pacific during Short Duration El Niño (496599)
Yi-Peng Guo, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China and Zhe-Min Tan, Nanjing University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China
 
Effects of Microphysical Latent Heating on the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Hato (2017) (502267)
Dajun Zhao, CAMS Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China and Yubin Yu, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
 
The Typhoon Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (T-RAPS) in CAMS (506387)
Jing Xu, China Meteorological Administration, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China, Yuqing Wang, Univ Hawaii, International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI, United States, Dajun Zhao, CAMS Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China and Haoyan Liu, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
 
Fuqing Zhang's Contribution to Tropical Cyclone Dynamics and Prediction (Invited) (510476)
Christopher A Davis, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Mutual interaction of binary tropical cyclones in a three-dimensional model (511259)
Haoyan Liu, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
 
Expanding Eyewall of Hurricane Helene (2006) during Rapid Intensification (512622)
Nannan Qin and Liguang Wu, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
 
The Adoint-derived Sensitivity Analysis of the Motion and Intensity of the Binary Typhoons (513907)
Kekuan Chu1, Feng Han1, Zhe-Min Tan1, Yi Zhang1 and Haoyan LIU2, (1)Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, (2)Hohai University, Nanjing, China
 
Increasing Destructive Potential of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over China (514191)
Lu Liu1, Yuqing Wang2, Ruifen Zhan3, Jing Xu4 and Yihong Duan1, (1)CAMS Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China, (2)Univ Hawaii, International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI, United States, (3)Fudan University, Shanghai, China, (4)University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
 
A multiscale alignment method for ensemble data assimilation with displacement errors (518811)
Yue (Michael) Ying, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
 
The 3-7 day prediction model of tropical cyclone intensity over the Western North Pacific based on logistic growth equation. (528178)
Peiyan Chen, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China, Ruifen Zhan, Fudan University, Shanghai, China, Jiuwei Zhao, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China and Yanchen Zhou, Fudan University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Science, Shanghai, China
 
Coupling of diurnal convective-radiative cycle and inertial gravity waves during the formation of Super Typhoon Megi (2010) (564676)
Juan Fang, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China and Fuqing Zhang, Penn State University, University Park, PA, United States
 
The impact of horizontal diffusion Parameterization on Typhoon Morakot (2009) structure and intensity (565040)
Yi Zhang, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China and Lu Zhang, Nanjing University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China
 
ENSO and intense tropical cyclone activity over the Northwest Pacific (565340)
Ruifen Zhan, Fudan University, Shanghai, China, Yuqing Wang, Univ Hawaii, International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI, United States and Jiuwei Zhao, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China
 
How Well is Tropical Cyclone Wind Structure Represented in the ERA5 Reanalysis Dataset? (572701)
Xin Qiu and Gufeng Bian, Nanjing University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China
 
Revisiting Azimuthally Asymmetric Moist Instability in the Outer Core of Sheared Tropical Cyclones (579081)
Qingqing Li, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China and Yufan Dai, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
 
How important the supergradient wind in the boundary layer is to tropical cyclone intensification? (595078)
Yuqing Wang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China and Yuanlong Li, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
 
Abrupt Breakdown of the Predictability of Early Season Typhoon Frequency at the Beginning of the 21st Century (596917)
Chao Wang, Nanjing University of Information Sciences and Technology, Nanjing, China, Bin Wang, Univ Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States and Liguang Wu, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
 
Intensification Variability of Tropical Cyclones in Directional Shear Flows: Vortex Tilt-Convection Coupling (626482)
Zhe-Min Tan1, Jian-Feng Gu2 and Xin Qiu1, (1)Nanjing University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China, (2)University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
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