NH011
Centennial Overview: Prediction of Extreme Weather Events and Their Impacts as an Interdisciplinary Problem

Session ID#: 77802

Session Description:
Extreme weather events (e.g. tropical cyclones, thunderstorms, atmospheric rivers, winter storms) produce multiple hazards including freshwater flooding, storm surges, tornados, hail, and landslides. The scale of the problem is staggering, with nearly 100 “billion dollar disasters” due to such events in the United States in the past decade alone. Reducing these impacts requires better prediction and forecasting on timescales ranging from subdaily to decadal, and expertise across a range of disciplines, including meteorologists, climate scientists, hydrologists, and risk experts. This session seeks to bring together early, mid, and late-career experts from across the AGU Natural Hazards community to share approaches and build awareness along the entire chain of extreme weather prediction using theory, models, and observations—from their origins as atmospheric phenomena to their wide-ranging impacts on human and natural systems. In recognition of AGU’s centennial celebration, we also invite submissions that review advances in prediction over the past century.
Index Terms:

4301 Atmospheric [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4303 Hydrological [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4315 Monitoring, forecasting, prediction [NATURAL HAZARDS]


Primary Convener:  Daniel Wright, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States
Conveners:  Bruno Merz, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany, Christian D Klose, Columbia University, Bronxville, NY, United States and Suzana Camargo, Columbia University, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States
Primary Liaison:  Daniel Wright, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States
 
High-Impact Weather Events over Hawaii and southwestern United States in February 2019 Due to Complex Large-Scale Flow Interactions over the North Pacific (Invited) (486243)
Lance F Bosart, University at Albany, State University of New York, Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, NY, United States and Tyler Christopher Leicht, University at Albany/SUNY, Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, NY, United States
 
How Hard Can It Rain? (Invited) (489848)
James A Smith, Princeton Univ, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States and Mary Lynn Baeck, Princeton University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States
 
Predicting the extreme events over Indian region: New Insights through high resolution ensemble model approach (490026)
Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay1, R Phani Murali Krishna2, Medha S Deshpande1, Malay Ganai2, Snehlata Tirkey3, Tanmoy Goswami3, Sahadat Sarkar, Shilpa Malviya3, Radhika Kanase3, Kumar Roy3, V. S. Prasad5, C. J. Johny5, V. R. Durai6 and R. Phani Murali Krishna, Medha Deshpande, Malay Ganai, Snehlata Tirkey, Tanmoy Goswami, Sahadat Sarkar, Shilpa Malviya, Radhika Kanase, Kumar Roy, V. S. Prasad, C. J. Johny and V. R. Durai, (1)Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Parameterization and Analysis, Pune, India, (2)Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India, (3)Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Parameterization and Analyses, Pune, India, (4)National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Noida, India, (5)India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India
 
Severe weather warnings: bridging the five valleys of death (501503)
Brian William Golding, UK Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom and The WMO/WWRP High Impact Weather project team
 
Predicting Extreme Events in Complex Nonlinear Dynamical Systems using Partial Observations and Short Training Data, with Applications to Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability (507932)
Nan Chen, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, United States and Andrew Majda, Courant Institute-NYU, New York, NY, United States
 
Identifying Non-Stationary Risk in an Era of Changing Environmental Perils (511076)
Patrick Harr1, Stephan R Sain2 and Luke Madaus2, (1)Jupiter Intelligence, Earth and Ocean Systems, San Mateo, CA, United States, (2)Jupiter, Boulder, United States
 
Socio-environmental extremes: rethinking extraordinary events as outcomes of interacting biophysical and social systems (524043)
Jennifer Balch1, Virginia Iglesias2, Anna Elizabeth Braswell3, Matthew Rossi4, Maxwell Joseph5, Adam Mahood6, Trisha Shrum7, Caitlin White8, Victoria Scholl9, Bryce McGuire8, Claire Karban8, Mollie Buckland8 and William Travis10, (1)University of Colorado, Earth Lab & CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)University of Colorado at Boulder, Earth Lab, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)Duke University, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, NC, United States, (4)University of Colorado, Earth Lab and CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)University of Colorado at Boulder, CIRES Earth Lab, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)University of Colorado at Boulder, Earth Lab & CIRES, Boulder, United States, (7)University of Vermont, Burlington, United States, (8)University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, United States, (9)University of Colorado at Boulder, CIRES Earth Lab, Boulder, NY, United States, (10)Earth Lab, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
 
A hierarchical Bayesian model to understand how regional climate variables and shifts in observational practices contributed to the U.S. tornado records (524290)
Niloufar Nouri, CUNY City College of New York, Department of Civil Engineering, New York, NY, United States, Naresh Devineni, CUNY City College, Department of Civil Engineering, New York, NY, United States, Valerie Were, City University of New York Remote Sensing Earth Systems Institute, New York, NY, United States and Reza Khanbilvardi, CUNY-NOAA CREST, New York, NY, United States
 
Extreme Weather in the Context of Solar Wind Coupling to the Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Atmosphere System (547410)
Paul Prikryl, University of New Brunswick, Physics Department, Fredericton, NB, Canada, Lidia Nikitina, Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada and Voyto Rusin, Astronomical Institute of Slovak Academy of Sciences, Tatranská Lomnica, Slovakia
 
How to Explain Flood Frequency Distribution Parameters in Bridge Hydraulics (559517)
Fahmidah Ummul Ashraf, Bradley University, Peoria, IL, United States and Timothy Koch, Bradley University, Civil Engineering and Construction, Peoria, IL, United States
 
Satellite-based anticipation of extreme convective weather through quantification of convective updraft characteristics: Application to potential tornado intensity estimation (589270)
Robert Jeffrey Trapp, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, IL, United States, Geoffrey R Marion, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States and Stephen W Nesbitt, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, IL, United States
 
“New Climate” warmed and floods in Morocco: Management of the 2010 floods.The exceptional nature of the event and the difficulties of human support (591412)
Mohammed-Said Karrouk, Hassan II University of Casablanca FLSH Ben M’Sick, FLSH Ben M'Sick, Geography, Climatology, LCEAT, CEREC, Casablanca, Morocco
 
Estimating Past, Present, and Future Contributions of Climate Change to Economic Losses from Hurricanes in the United States (610330)
Ian Wesley Bolliger1, Michael Delgado2, Michael Greenstone3, Ali Hamidi2, Trevor Houser2, Solomon M Hsiang4 and Robert E Kopp5, (1)University of California Berkeley, Energy and Resources Group, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)Rhodium Group, Oakland, CA, United States, (3)University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States, (4)University of California Berkeley, Goldman School of Public Policy, Berkeley, CA, United States, (5)Rutgers University New Brunswick, Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
 
An intuitive metric to quantify and communicate tropical cyclone rainfall hazard (614500)
Christopher Bosma1, Daniel B. Wright1, Phu Nguyen2, James P Kossin3, Derrick Herndon4 and Marshall Shepherd5, (1)University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States, (2)UC Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States, (3)NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Center for Weather and Climate, Madison, WI, United States, (4)Univ Wisconsin, Madison, WI, United States, (5)The University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United States
 
A Holistic View of Extreme Weather: A California Heat Waves Archetype (619591)
Richard Grotjahn, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, United States
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