V034
Modeling volcanic eruptions: from understanding process to forecasting events and consequences

Session ID#: 77858

Session Description:
Informed by laboratory experiments and observations, models of volcanic eruptions have evolved from 1-D tools that explore parameterized processes into 2-D and 3-D calculations that explore combined or cascading interactions such as particle-fluid coupling, turbulent mixing, lightning generation, and aerosol production.  Greater computer speed has enabled these models to resolve dynamics related to source unsteadiness, heterogeneous turbulent mixing, jet compressibility, vent complexity, and complex thermochemical and thermophysical interactions among ash, gas, water and ice. These innovations have led to better understanding of processes, improved forecasting of real events, and assessing hazards ranging from pyroclastic flows, to ash clouds, to climate effects.  As models improve, so do observational data required for their validation.  New collection and analysis strategies are emerging. In this session we aim to bring together modelers, observers, and data scientists to explore eruption processes and how modeling helps forecast and assess hazards.
Index Terms:

4314 Mathematical and computer modeling [NATURAL HAZARDS]
8409 Atmospheric effects [VOLCANOLOGY]
8428 Explosive volcanism [VOLCANOLOGY]
8488 Volcanic hazards and risks [VOLCANOLOGY]


Primary Convener:  Larry G Mastin, USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, WA, United States
Conveners:  John Stix, McGill University, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Montreal, QC, Canada, Mark Jellinek, Univ British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada and Amanda B Clarke, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States
Primary Liaison:  Larry G Mastin, US Geological Survey Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, WA, United States
 
A new dataset of eruption source parameters devoted to eruptive column model evaluation. (Invited) (493338)
Thomas Jacques Aubry, University of Cambridge, Geography, Cambridge, United Kingdom, Samantha L Engwell, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom, Costanza Bonnadona, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland, David M Pyle, University of Oxford, Department of Earth Sciences, Oxford, United Kingdom, Guillaume Carazzo, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris, France and Mark Jellinek, Univ British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
 
Disequilibrium Rheology of Basalts from Campi Flegrei and Derivation of Empirical Solidification Criteria. (Invited) (499788)
Stephan Kolzenburg, University at Buffalo, Department of Geology, Buffalo, NY, United States; Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Munich, Germany and Donald B Dingwell, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Munich, Germany
 
Quantifying Wind Driven Collapse Scenarios of Explosive Eruption Plumes (499860)
Tyler Paladino, Bryan C Nicholson and Shannon E Kobs-Nawotniak, Idaho State University, Pocatello, ID, United States
 
A combined 2D-1D magma ascent model of explosive volcanic eruptions. (501403)
Helene Massol, Univ. Paris Sud - Univ. Paris Saclay, CNRS/GEOPS, Orsay, France
 
Quantifying the effect of channelization and avulsion on pyroclastic density currents from multiphase modeling (508519)
Allison Kubo and Josef Dufek, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, United States
 
An umbrella cloud model to explain thickness and grain size variation in tephra deposits: Pululagua (Ecuador) (511551)
Robert Constantinescu, University of South Florida Tampa, School of Geosceinces, Tampa, FL, United States, Aurelian Hopulele - Gligor, Freelance Software Developer, Cluj Napoca, Romania, Laura Connor, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, United States, Charles Connor, University of South Florida, School of Geosciences, Tampa, FL, United States, Costanza Bonnadona, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland, Alain Volentik, ExxonMobil, Houston, TX, United States, Sylvain J Charbonnier, University of South Florida, Geosciences, Tampa, FL, United States and Jan Marie Lindsay, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
 
Highly Explosive Basaltic Eruptions: Magma Fragmentation Induced by Rapid Crystallisation (516155)
Giuseppe La Spina1, Fabio Arzilli1, Michael Richard Burton1, Margherita Polacci1, Nolwenn Le Gall2, Margaret E Hartley1, Danilo Di Genova3, Biao Cai4, Nghia Vo5, Emily Bamber1, Sara Nonni5, Robert C. Atwood5, Edward W Llewellin6, Richard A. Brooker7, Heidy M Mader7 and Peter D. Lee2, (1)University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom, (2)University College London, London, United Kingdom, (3)Clausthal University of Technology, Clausthal-Zellerfeld, Germany, (4)University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom, (5)Diamond Light Source, Didcot, United Kingdom, (6)University of Durham, Durham, United Kingdom, (7)University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
 
Eruptive dynamics of the 1835 Osorno volcano flank eruption, Chile (41°S) (523870)
Luna Perez1, Angelo Castruccio1 and Daniel Diaz2, (1)University of Chile, Department of Geology, Santiago, Chile, (2)University of Chile, Santiago, Chile
 
Development of an Unmanned Aquatic Vehicle for bathymetry survey of hot-acidic volcanic lakes (523892)
Carlos J Ramirez, Servicio Geológico Ambiental (SEGEOAM) - Costa Rica, Heredia, Costa Rica, Donald A McFarlane, The Claremont Colleges, Keck Science Department, Claremont, CA, United States, Guy Van Rentergem, Association of Flemish Cavers, VVS, Vilvoorde, Belgium and Joyce Lundberg, Carleton University, Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Ottawa, Canada
 
Modeling the Influence of Effusion Rates and Ground Slopes on Martian Long Lava Flows (535011)
Jiaqi Fang, Wei Tian and Weiyi Sun, Peking University, Beijing, China
 
A validated numerical model for the growth and resorption of bubbles in magma (547122)
Edward W Llewellin1, Jason P Coumans1, Madeleine Humphreys1, Fabian B Wadsworth2, Katherine J Dobson3, Anja Allabar4, Richard A. Brooker5, Simon Mathias1, James E Gardner6 and Julia Coggins1, (1)University of Durham, Durham, United Kingdom, (2)Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom, (3)University of Durham, Earth Sciences, Durham, United Kingdom, (4)University Tuebingen, Tuebingen, Germany, (5)University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom, (6)University of Texas at Austin, Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, TX, United States
 
Two-dimensional Model of Pāhoehoe Lava Flow at the Single-to-multi-lobe-scale (559282)
Xiaojing Fu1, Michael Manga1 and Stephen Self2, (1)University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)University of California Berkeley, Earth and Planetary Science, Berkeley, CA, United States
 
Constraining first-order controls on volcanic repose time by examining cumulative distribution functions (563969)
Hannah I Shamloo, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States, Christy B. Till, Arizona State Univeristy, Tempe, AZ, United States, Adam J.R. Kent, Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, OR, United States and Kari M Cooper, UC Davis, Davis, CA, United States
 
Computer Simulation of Explosive Eruption Scenarios at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (FR): Implications for Volcanic Hazard Assessment. (575252)
Tomaso Esposti Ongaro1, Jean Christophe Komorowski2, Mattia De' Michieli Vitturi1 and Augusto Neri3, (1)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, Italy, (2)Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris, France, (3)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Pisa, Italy
 
Numerical Modeling of Gravitational Instabilities at the Base of Volcanic Plumes (578070)
Jonathan Lemus, Allan Fries, Paul Jarvis, Costanza Bonnadona, Jonas Latt and Bastien Chopard, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
 
Spreading dynamics of large volcanic umbrella clouds and the importance of turbulent entrainment (590249)
Stephen Tait, Edouard Kaminski, Guillaume Carazzo and Angela Limare, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris, France
 
Synthetic benchmarking of numerical models used for channelized pyroclastic currents (591212)
Valentin Gueugneau, University of South Florida, geosciences, Tampa, FL, United States and Sylvain J Charbonnier, University of South Florida, Geosciences, Tampa, FL, United States
 
A Physical Seismicity Model for Volcanic Eruption Tremor Based on Particle Impacts and Turbulence (593950)
Julia E. Gestrich1, David Fee1, Matthew M Haney2, Victor C Tsai3 and Alexa R Van Eaton4, (1)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (2)USGS Alaska Volcano Observatory, Anchorage, AK, United States, (3)Caltech-Seismological Lab, Pasadena, CA, United States, (4)USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, WA, United States
 
Fluid Entrainment and Granular Flux in Pyroclastic Density Currents: Revisiting Entrainment Parameterizations for Generalized Particle-Laden Flows (610776)
Josef Dufek, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, United States and Eric Breard, University of Oregon, Department of Earth Sciences, Eugene, OR, United States
 
Experimental Study of Particle Aggregation in Jets Using Particle Image Velocimetry (617317)
Laura Shannon1, Stephen Solovitz2, Alexa R Van Eaton3, John K Eaton4, Larry G Mastin5, Raúl Bayoán Cal6 and Graham Freedland6, (1)Battle Ground, Washington, United States, (2)Washington St. U. Vancouver, Vancouver, WA, United States, (3)USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, WA, United States, (4)Stanford University, Mechanical Engineering, Stanford, CA, United States, (5)US Geological Survey Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, WA, United States, (6)Portland State University, Portland, OR, United States
 
Including Aerosols in Photorate Calculations in CESM2 for Volcano Simulations (628156)
Margot Clyne, University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Owen B Toon, Univ Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Michael J Mills, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Atmospheric Chemistry, Observations, and Modeling Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States and Yunqian Zhu, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Transient and unsteady eruptions at Sabancaya Volcano, Peru

: for how long and how high are oscillations in vent mass flux remembered in the evolving plume? (628905)

Colin R Rowell, University of British Columbia, Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Vancouver, BC, Canada and Mark Jellinek, Univ British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada