NH009
Centennial Overview: Status and prospects of earthquake and tsunami forecasting and hazard assessment

Session ID#: 78029

Session Description:
After the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, shortly before AGU was founded, G. K. Gilbert posed the crucial question "Must the citizens of San Francisco and the bay district face the danger of experiencing within a few generations a shock equal to or even greater than the one to which they have just been subjected? Or have they earned by their recent calamity a long immunity from violent disturbance?" This issue remains at the forefront of natural hazard science. This session will explore the current status of forecasting when and where earthquakes and tsunamis may occur and assessing the resulting hazards. We invite papers on all aspects of the status and challenges of forecasting and hazard assessment, including exploring the performance of forecasts and developing methods to improve them.
Index Terms:

4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4315 Monitoring, forecasting, prediction [NATURAL HAZARDS]
7212 Earthquake ground motions and engineering seismology [SEISMOLOGY]
7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction [SEISMOLOGY]

Primary Convener:  Seth Stein, Northwestern University, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States
Conveners:  John B Rundle, University of California Davis, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Davis, CA, United States, Kenneth W Hudnut, USGS, Pasadena, CA, United States and Robert Weiss, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States
Primary Liaison:  Seth Stein, Northwestern Univ, Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States
 
Fault stress inversion reveals seismogenic asperity of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (487315)
Yongen Cai, ITAG Institute of Theoretical and Applied Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing, China, Zhoumin Xie, CEA China Earthquake Administration, Institute of Crustal Dynamics, Beijing, China, Chi-Yuen Wang, University of California Berkeley, Earth and Planetary Science, Berkeley, CA, United States, Shoichi Yoshioka, Kobe Univ, Nada Ward Kobe, Japan and Momo Tanaka, Kobe University, Kobe, Japan
 
Great Earthquakes at Subduction Zones: Rupture of Great Asperities and Sites of Decadal Forerunning Activity (493661)
Lynn Sykes, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States
 
What Does the Past Tell Us About the Future? Using Simulations to Explore Earthquake Hazard Model Parameters (496972)
James Scott Neely1, Seth Stein2, Edward Max Brooks1, Bruce D. Spencer3, Leah Salditch4 and John Adams5, (1)Northwestern University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States, (2)Northwestern Univ, Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States, (3)Northwestern University, Department of Statistics and Institute for Policy Research, Evanston, IL, United States, (4)Northwestern University, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States, (5)Canadian Hazards Info Service, Ottawa, ON, Canada
 
Earthquake Research Organizations in Japan: History and Their Roles for Forecast and Hazard Assessment (505637)
Kenji Satake, The University of Tokyo, Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan
 
Statistical Test of Spatio-Temporal Variation of b Value in Japan (506054)
Weiyun Xie, Chiba University, Graduate School of Science, Chiba, Japan, Katsumi Hattori, Graduate School of Science, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan and Peng Han, Southern University of Science and Technology, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Shenzhen, China
 
Updating the Traditional Earthquake Cycle Model Using Long-Term Fault Memory and Implications for Improved Earthquake Hazard Assessment (506818)
Leah Salditch, Northwestern University, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States, Seth Stein, Northwestern Univ, Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States, James Neely, Northwestern University, Evanston, United States, Bruce D. Spencer, Northwestern University, Department of Statistics and Institute for Policy Research, Evanston, IL, United States, Edward Max Brooks, Northwestern University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States and Mian Liu, University of Missouri, Geological Sciences, Columbia, MO, United States
 
Seismic Site Characterization Using Body-Wave Polarization (510461)
Sunyoung Park, California Institute of Technology, Seismological Laboratory, Pasadena, MA, United States, Victor C Tsai, California Institute of Technology, Seismological Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States; Brown University, Department of Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences, Providence, RI, United States and Miaki Ishii, Harvard University, Earth and Planetary Sciences Department, Cambridge, MA, United States
 
A Refined Coulomb/Rate-state Forecast Model Based on a Retrospective Study of 10-year Aftershocks of the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake, China (513565)
Yashan Feng, China University of Geosciences, Institute of Geophysics and Geomatics, Wuhan, China, Bin Shan, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China and Xiong Xiong, China University of Geosciences Wuhan, Institute of Geophysics and Geomatics, Wuhan, China
 
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for interpolate earthquakes along the Ryukyu Trench (514373)
Kenji Hirata1, Hiroyuki Fujiwara2, Hiromitsu Nakamura3, Tatsuo Ohsumi4, Nobuyuki Morikawa5, Shin'ichi Kawai4, Takahiro Maeda6, Yuji Dohi3, Hisanori Matsuyama7, Nobuhiko Toyama7, Tadashi Kito7, Kenshi Ohshima8, Yasuhiro Murata9, Ryu Saito9, Shinichi Akiyama10, Mariko Korenaga10, Yuta Abe10 and Tomoya Hakamata11, (1)National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED), Tsukuba, Japan, (2)Natl Res Inst Earth Science, Tsukuba Ibaraki, Japan, (3)NIED, Tsukuba, Japan, (4)NIED National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan, (5)NIED, Tsukuba Ibaraki, Japan, (6)National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan, (7)OYO Corporation, Tsukuba, Japan, (8)OYO corporation, Saitama, Japan, (9)KOKUSAI KOGYO CO., LTD, Tokyo, Japan, (10)ITOCHU Techno-Solutions Corporation, Chiyoda-ku, Japan, (11)ITOCHU Techno-Solutions Corporation, Tokyo, Japan
 
Study on comprehensive evaluation method of seismic intensity based on remotely sensed, ground surveying seismic damages and ground motion records (517409)
Xiaoqing Wang, Aixia Dou, Xiaoxiang Yuan, Xiang Ding and Xiaoyong Wu, Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China
 
Shear wave splitting measurements before large earthquakes in California (523069)
Hongru Hu and Aibing Li, University of Houston, EAS, Houston, TX, United States
 
Assessment of rapid earthquake source characterizations for local tsunami forecasting along the Cascadia subduction zone (523853)
Amy Williamson1, Diego Melgar1, Brendan Crowell2, Diego Arcas3, Timothy Ian Melbourne4, Kevin B Kwong5, Yong Wei6, Clint Pells7, Christopher W Moore8, Victor M Santillan4, Craig Scrivner4 and Walter Michael Szeliga9, (1)University of Oregon, Department of Earth Sciences, Eugene, OR, United States, (2)University of Washington, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States, (3)NOAA, NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, Seattle, WA, United States, (4)Central Washington Univ, Ellensburg, WA, United States, (5)University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, United States, (6)NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Lab & University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, (7)University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, (8)NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, Seattle, WA, United States, (9)Central Washington University, Ellensburg, WA, United States
 
Magnitude-Distance Relationships for Tsunamis Generated by Seismogenic Submarine Landslides - Empirical Constraints (536677)
Amos Salamon, Geological Survey of Israel, Jerusalem, Israel and Pio Di Manna, ISPRA, Rome, Italy
 
Testing Earthquake Predictions and Associated Hypotheses (537687)
Vladimir G Kossobokov, Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia; International Seismic Safety Organization, Arsita, Italy
 
Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Implications for Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment (538743)
Anastasia Nekrasova, Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
 
Analysis of radon time series recorded during the 2016-2017 central Italy seismic sequence. (540258)
Gaia Soldati1, Valentina Cannelli1, Antonio Piersanti1 and IRON group, (1)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy
 
Using Recent M≥4 Seismicity to Estimate the Locations of the Next M≥6.7 Earthquakes in California (544453)
John Ebel, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, United States
 
Testing different configurations of GNSS-based rapid source products for tsunami and ground motion characterization (546318)
Brendan Crowell1, Kevin B Kwong1, Amy Williamson2, Diego Melgar2, Diego Arcas3, Timothy Ian Melbourne4, Yong Wei5, Clint Pells6, Christopher W Moore7, Victor M Santillan4, Craig Scrivner4 and Walter Michael Szeliga8, (1)University of Washington, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States, (2)University of Oregon, Department of Earth Sciences, Eugene, OR, United States, (3)NOAA, NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, Seattle, WA, United States, (4)Central Washington Univ, Ellensburg, WA, United States, (5)NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Lab & University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, (6)University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, (7)NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, Seattle, WA, United States, (8)Central Washington University, Ellensburg, WA, United States
 
Earthquake Immunity or False Sense of Security: A Historical California Retrospective (Invited) (559431)
Susan Elizabeth Hough, USGS Pasadena Field Office, Pasadena, CA, United States
 
Simplifying to Capture the Essential: Towards Reliable Analog Experiments Mimicking Earthquakes (575395)
Osvanny Ramos1, Sébastien Lherminier1, Victor Levy dit Vehel1, Ramon Planet1, Gilles Simon1, Loic Vanel1 and Knut Jorgen Maloy2, (1)University Claude Bernard Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, France, (2)Universityof Oslo, Oslo, Norway
 
Self-similar fault slip distributions on a non-planar fault with random heterogeneity for tsunami scenarios for megathrust earthquakes (576312)
Masaru Nakano, JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan, Shane Murphy, IFREMER, Plouzané, France, Ryoichiro Agata, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, Yasuhiko Igarashi, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, Masato Okada, The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, Chiba, Japan and Takane Hori, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Research and Development Center for Earthquake and Tsunami, Yokohama, Japan
 
A Numerical and Theoretical Study on Tsunami-induced Atmospheric Lamb Waves (576404)
Kensuke Nakajima, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
 
Modelling Seismicity in California as a Spatio-Temporal Point Process Using inlabru: Insights for Earthquake Forecasting (613818)
Kirsty Bayliss1, Mark Naylor2 and Ian Graham Main2, (1)University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9, United Kingdom, (2)University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
 
How to develop tsunami early warning system together by volcanologists, sediment disaster experts and others (633543)
Megumi Sugimoto, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
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