H092
Long-Term Climate Modeling and Hydrological Projection

Session ID#: 78073

Session Description:
Climate change has significant impacts on water resource systems. Such impacts may involve hydrological cycle and the related human interests such as water supply, drought prevention, and flooding control. With the effects of climate change, planning for various water-related infrastructure will also need to be updated. Therefore, long-term climate modeling and hydrological projection are essential for supporting the improvements of such plans. This session is to provide a forum for communicating recent progress in this field. We encourage contributions of (1) coupled models for long-term hydro-climate simulation; (2) hydrologic impacts based on long-term climate projections, as driven by GCMs, RCMs, and statistical downscaling models; (3) adaptation of climate-change impacts on hydrological cycle, associated with the analyses of their socio-economic and environmental effects; (4) reflection of uncertainties in long-term climate modeling and hydrological projection, as well as the relevant efforts for adaptation planning.
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • WCRP: World Climate Research Programme -
Index Terms:

1807 Climate impacts [HYDROLOGY]
1833 Hydroclimatology [HYDROLOGY]
1847 Modeling [HYDROLOGY]
1873 Uncertainty assessment [HYDROLOGY]

Primary Convener:  Guohe Huang, Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada
Convener:  Qingyun Duan, Beijing Normal University, Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Beijing, China
Primary Liaison:  Hua Zhang, Texas A&M University Corpus Christi, College of Science and Engineering, Corpus Christi, TX, United States
 
Flooding Risk Assessment through Dependency Analysis of Occurrence Date and Magnitude of Storm Events in the Shenzhen Bay Area (487458)
Jingcheng Han, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Water Research Center, Shenzhen, China and Yang Zhou, Shenzhen University, College of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Shenzhen, China
 
Correcting Daily IMERG Satellite Precipitation Estimates by a Censored Shifted Mixture Distribution (489382)
Lihua Xiong, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
 
A Simple Framework for the Estimation of Annual Runoff Frequency Distribution under the Non-stationarity Condition (490477)
Ziwei Liu and Hanbo Yang, Tsinghua University, State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Beijing, China
 
Multi-model consensus predictions of salient climate change signals (492090)
Qingyun Duan, Hohai University, Nanjing, China and Xuewei Fan, BNU Beijing Normal University, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing, China
 
Copula Compatibility Based Non-stationary Frequency Analysis of Annual Extreme Rainfall (492155)
Heshu Li1, Dong WANG2 and Yuankun Wang2, (1)Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China, (2)Nanjing University, Department of Hydrosciences, Nanjing, China
 
Probabilistic Projections of Multivariate Drought Characteristics through Convection-Permitting Climate Simulations (492693)
Shuo Wang1,2 and Boen Zhang1, (1)The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong, (2)The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China
 
Effect of Multi-site Calibration Method on Model Performance and Runoff Prediction (492827)
Yongyu Song, Capital Normal University, Beijing, China and Jing Zhang, CNU Capital Nornal University, College of Resources Environment and Tourism, Beijing, China
 
Quantifying the Effect of Conservation Measures and Climate Change on Water and Soil Erosion on the Loess Plateau (493500)
Chunjiang An, Concordia University, Montreal, QC, Canada and Mengfan Cai, Concordia University, Montreal, Canada
 
Extreme rainfall analysis based on extreme index and extreme value theory (494707)
Wenqi Wang, Dong WANG and Yuankun Wang, Nanjing University, Department of Hydrosciences, Nanjing, China
 
Reservoir Monthly Streamflow Prediction Using Extreme Learning Machine Based on Chaotic Particle Swarm Optimization (501444)
Wen-jing Niu1, Zhongkai Feng2, Yu-bin Chen Mr.1, Yao-wu Min Mr.1 and Chuntian Cheng3, (1)Bureau of Hydrology, ChangJiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan, China, (2)Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China, (3)DUT Dalian University of Technology, School of Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian, China
 
Stream temperature and streamflow variability under future climate conditions on the Atlantic Coast of the United States. (502221)
Alejandra Botero-Acosta, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, MO, United States, Jason Knouft, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO, United States, Darren L Ficklin, Indiana University - Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, United States and Nima Ehsani, CUNY Environmental Crossroads, New York, NY, United States
 
Intercomparison of univariate and multivariate statistical downscaling methods and their effects on hydrologic simulations for Alberta, Canada (502408)
Hyung-Il Eum and Anil Gupta, Alberta Environment and Parks, Calgary, AB, Canada
 
Improving Urban Flood Management through Better Communication between Road Engineering and Flood Disaster Management Sectors (504899)
Guangwei Huang, Sophia University, Tokyo, Japan
 
New Transient Hydrological Scenarios and Time of Emergence for Alpine Catchments in Switzerland (506245)
Regula Muelchi, Ole K Rößler, Jan Schwanbeck, Rolf Weingartner and Olivia Romppainen-Martius, University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Institute of Geography, Bern, Switzerland
 
Overall uncertainty of climate change impacts on hydrology over North American watersheds (509581)
Jie Chen, State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China, Wuhan, China
 
A vine copula framework for assessing water temperature variation in the middle reach of the Yangtze River (510013)
Yuwei Tao1, Yuankun Wang2 and Dong WANG2, (1)Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, (2)Nanjing University, Department of Hydrosciences, Nanjing, China
 
Soil moisture retrieval over vegetated loamy soil surface based on the Improved Dual-Channel Algorithm (511135)
Adu Gong1, Yanling Chen1, Yuqing Yang1, Tingting Zeng1, Jing Li1, Jianjun Wu1 and Lv Xiaoran2, (1)Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China, (2)Institute of remote sensing and digital earth Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China
 
Statistical Downscaling of Temperature and Precipitation of California Using A Non-Stationary Time Series Decomposition and Machine Learning (513193)
Xintong LI, Xiaodong Zhang and Shuguang Wang, Shandong University, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Qingdao, China
 
Daily-scale rainfall event characteristics and temporal rainfall patterns under climate change in Qu River basin, China (515438)
Chao Gao1, Martijn J. Booij2 and Yue-ping Xu1, (1)Zhejiang University, Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hangzhou, China, (2)University of Twente, Water Engineering and Management group, Enschede, Netherlands
 
Changes in vegetation and surface water balance at basin-scale in Central China with rising atmospheric CO2 (515694)
Xi Chen, Tianjin University, Institute of Surface-Earth System Science, Tianjin, China, Richao Huang, Hohai University, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing, China and Qi S Hu, Univ Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, United States
 
Projection of Long-Term Hydrological Impacts on Socio-Economic Systems in China (517477)
Lirong Liu1, Guohe Huang1, Chen Lu1, Kailong Li1, Jiapei Chen1, Xiaoyue Zhang1 and Brian W. Baetz2, (1)University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada, (2)McMaster University, Ontario, Canada
 
Investigation of Natural and Externally Forced Hydroclimatic Variability in the Upper North Saskatchewan River Basin (518145)
Muhammad Rehan Anis, David Sauchyn and Soumik Basu, University of Regina, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC), Regina, SK, Canada
 
Impacts Analyses of Climate Change on Water Availability for Adaptive Management (518835)
Jiapei Chen1, Guohe Huang1, Guanhui Cheng1, Yuanyuan Zhai1, Xiaoyue Zhang1, Lirong Liu1 and Brian W. Baetz2, (1)University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada, (2)McMaster University, Ontario, Canada
 
Temperature Prediction Using Machine Learning Based Multi-Model Ensembles (519412)
Xinyi Li, Zhong Li and Wendy Huang, McMaster University, Department of Civil Engineering, Hamilton, ON, Canada
 
A scenario-based type-2 fuzzy interval programming approach for planning mid-and-long term regional-scale water-energy-food nexus system management under uncertainty (526403)
Qiting Zuo, Zhengzhou, China and Lei Yu, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China
 
Long-term hydrological impacts of RCMs-projected climate changes on Canadian Prairies (529324)
Xiong Zhou, Guohe Huang, Yuanyuan Zhai, Yinghui Wu, Chen Lu and Tangnyu Song, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada
 
Evaluation of dam risk for sediment-rich basins through hydrological projection and remote sensing (530647)
Kailong Li, Guohe Huang and Chen Lu, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada
 
Dynamically downscaled hydrological drought information on the Korean peninsula for 1980-2010 (533664)
Minwoo KIM, KIOST, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South) and Eun-Chul Chang, Kongju National University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Gongju, South Korea
 
Risk Assessment of Urban Storm Runoff in Baiyangdian Watershed Based on PCSWMM Model (539645)
Yutong Tian, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
 
Study on evaluation of river system connectivity in plain river network area in changzhou city (540124)
Jiuhe Bu and Chunhui Li, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
 
The cascade of uncertainties in agro-hydrological model projections: implications for future water-food nexus in snow-dominated regions (545856)
Monireh Faramarzi, Pouya Khalili, Majid Zaremehrjardy, Gunjan Silwal and Mohammad Badrul Masud, University of Alberta, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Edmonton, AB, Canada
 
High Resolution Hydrological Projection and Long-Term Flood Mapping for Canadian Prairies (547614)
Guohe Huang, Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada and Xiong Zhou, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada
 
Bias Correction for the Unbiased Mapping of GCM Changes to Local Stations, Preserving the Changes in Variability from Raw GCMs (549794)
Fernando González-Leiva1,2, Cristian Chadwick3 and Jorge Gironás1,2, (1)Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Santiago, Chile, (2)Centro de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales - CIGIDEN, Santiago, Chile, (3)Universidad de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y de la Conservación de la Naturaleza, Santiago, Chile
 
Long-Term Impacts of Glacier Melts on Macro-Scale Unregulated Streamflow under Climatic Changes (552653)
Guanhui Cheng, Guohe Huang and Kailong Li, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada
 
Effects of Compound Drought and Heatwave Extremes on Hydrological Projection (555953)
Yuanyuan Zhai, Guohe Huang, Xiong Zhou, Yinghui Wu, Chen Lu, Tangnyu Song and Jiapei Chen, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada
 
What are Key Drivers of Projected Riverine Flood Risk? (560276)
Sanjib Sharma1, Alfonso Mejia2, Robert Nicholas1 and Klaus Keller3, (1)Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, University Park, PA, United States, (2)Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University Park, PA, United States, (3)Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Department of Geosciences, University Park, PA, United States
 
Sensitivity Analyses of RegCM Physical Schemes for Long-term Hydroclimatic Forecasts (561200)
Tangnyu Song, Guohe Huang, Xiong Zhou, Chen Lu, Yuanyuan Zhai and Yinghui Wu, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada
 
Research on the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Water Resources Security Based on Ecological Footprint (564698)
Hui Li, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
 
90 years of climate change, hydroelectric regulation, and hydrologic uncertainty in Hudson Bay (565705)
Andrew A. G. Tefs, University of Manitoba, Civil Engineering, Winnipeg, MB, Canada, Tricia Stadnyk, University of Manitoba, Dept of Civil Engineering (Water Resources), Winnipeg, MB, Canada, Kristina A Koenig, Manitoba Hydro, Winnipeg, MB, Canada, Stephen J Dery, UNBC, Prince George, BC, Canada, Genevieve Ali, University of Guelph, School of Environmental Sciences, Guelph, ON, Canada, Isabelle Chartier, Hydro-Québec, Insitiut de Recherche d’Hydro-Québec (IREQ), Varennes, Canada and Scott Pokorny, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada
 
A Study of Extreme Precipitation and Extreme Streamflow over the Yangtze River Basin Using a Double Nested Coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Model (565874)
Chen Lu, Guohe Huang, Lirong Liu, Xiong Zhou, Yuanyuan Zhai, Yinghui Wu, Tangnyu Song and Kailong Li, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada
 
An integrated hydrological modelling approach to assess the impact of climate change on a typical endorheic basin (573488)
Feng Han, Yong Tian and Yi Zheng, Southern University of Science and Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shenzhen, China
 
The Changing Trend and Its Attribution of Global and Regional Continental Discharge: Results from Ten Global Land Models (581051)
Chen Wang, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China and Qingyun Duan, Beijing Normal University, Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Beijing, China
 
Spatiotemporal variations of hydrological connectivity on a basin-scale complex river network with intensive human activity in the last 60 years (587021)
Xiaojing Shao1, Baoshan Cui1, James W Jawitz2, Jiaguo Yan1 and Tian Xie1, (1)State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation & School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China, (2)University of Florida, Soil and Water Sciences, Gainesville, FL, United States
 
Hydro-climatic Impact Analysis of Future Streamflow based on High-resolution RCM Projections (592855)
Yinghui Wu, Guohe Huang, Xiong Zhou, Yuanyuan Zhai, Chen Lu and Tangnyu Song, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada
 
Projecting the Impacts of Local Topography on Streamflow and Stream Temperatures in the Fish-bearing Mountainous Streams of Western Washington State under a Warming Climate (596028)
Ryan David Murphy and Cynthia Rossi, Point No Point Treaty Council, Poulsbo, WA, United States
 
Impacts of Hydro-Climatic Changes on Feasibility of Small Modular Reactors in Canada (596086)
Xiaoyue Zhang, Guohe Huang, Xiong Zhou, Guanhui Cheng, Lirong Liu and Jiapei Chen, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada
 
Hydrologic Modeling in the Indus River Basin (609839)
Jacob Schaperow, University of California Los Angeles, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Ivan Thieu, University of California Los Angeles, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Los Angeles, United States, Dongyue Li, University of California, Los Angeles, Department of Geography, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Steven A Margulis, UCLA, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Los Angeles, CA, United States and Dennis P Lettenmaier, UCLA, Department of Geography, Los Angeles, CA, United States
 
Changes in Hydroclimatic Characteristics of River Basins in the U.S over the 21st Century (617596)
Hadi Heidari1, Mazdak Arabi1, Travis Warziniack2 and Shih-Chieh Kao3, (1)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States, (2)Rocky Mountain Research Station, U. S. Forest Service, Fort Collins, United States, (3)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
 
Climatic Sensitivity of a Critical Turkish Watershed to Inform Water Resource Management in an Altered Climate (622819)
Furkan yunus emre Cevahir1, Jennifer C Adam2 and Mingliang Liu2, (1)Pullman, United States, (2)Washington State University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pullman, WA, United States
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