B039
Ecological Forecasting in the Earth System

Session ID#: 78795

Session Description:
How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future? How do human decisions affect this trajectory? In a world facing rapid environmental change, these are the most pressing questions facing the biogeosciences. These are also fundamentally questions about forecasting. Due to advances in data availability, models, statistics, and policy, the time is ripe for rapid progress in making the biogeosciences more predictive. Furthermore, a forecasting approach will not only improve the biogeosciences more quickly, but will make it more relevant to society. That said, there are many conceptual and technical challenges to improving our ability to make predictions, such as the need for improvements in theories and models, data assimilation, targeted reductions in data deficiencies, and the quantification, propagation, and analysis of uncertainties. This session aims to highlight both methodological and application-based research on forecasting biogeochemistry, biogeophysics, and ecology across both terrestrial and aquatic systems.
Index Terms:

0428 Carbon cycling [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
0439 Ecosystems, structure and dynamics [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
1910 Data assimilation, integration and fusion [INFORMATICS]
1922 Forecasting [INFORMATICS]

Primary Convener:  Michael Dietze, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States
Conveners:  Gordon B Bonan, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Quinn Thomas, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Blacksburg, VA, United States and Jason S McLachlan, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States
Primary Liaison:  Michael Dietze, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States
 
Reconstructing and predicting global potential natural vegetation with a deep neural network model (498088)
Hisashi Sato, JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan and Takeshi Ise, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
 
Assessing existing and future dam impacts on the connectivity of freshwater fish ranges worldwide (514690)
Valerio Barbarossa1, Rafael J. P. Schmitt2, Mark A. J. Huijbregts1, Christiane Zarfl3 and Aafke Schipper4, (1)Radboud University, Environmental Science, Nijmegen, Netherlands, (2)University of California Berkeley, Department of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, Berkeley, CA, United States, (3)Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, Center for Applied Geosciences, Tübingen, Germany, (4)Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands
 
An optimal projection of the changes in global leaf area index in the 21st century (529765)
Zhao Qian, School of Urban Planning and Design, Shenzhen Graduate School, Peking University, Shenzhen, China and Zaichun Zhu, Boston University, Allston, MA, United States
 
The combination of UAVs and deep neural networks has a potential as a new framework of vegetation monitoring (538863)
Masanori Onishi, Takeshi Ise and Shuntaro Watanabe, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
 
Theoretical Limits to Forecasting in Ecological Systems (And What to Do About It) (541411)
Carl Boettiger, Davis, CA, United States
 
Developing capacity for applied ecological forecasting across the federal research and natural resource management community (543301)
Jake F Weltzin, USA National Phenology Network, Tucson, AZ, United States, John B Bradford, U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ, United States, Jill Baron, US Geological Survey, John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, Fort Collins, CO, United States and Molly McCormick, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ, United States
 
Modeling Brazilian Integrated Crop-Livestock Systems (551215)
Rafael Vasconcelos Valadares1, Yane Freitas Silva2, Eleanor E Campbell3, Gleyce K. D. Araujo Figueiredo4, Lucas R. do Amaral2, Edemar Moro5, Rubens A. C. Lamparelli1 and Paulo S. G. Magalhães1, (1)UNICAMP State University of Campinas, Interdisciplinary Energy Planning Center, Campinas, Brazil, (2)UNICAMP State University of Campinas, Agricultural Engineering, Campinas, Brazil, (3)Earth Systems Research Center, Durham, NH, United States, (4)UNICAMP State University of Campinas, FEAGRI, Campinas, Brazil, (5)University of Western São Paulo (UNOESTE), Agronomy, Presidente Prudente, Brazil
 
Forecasting the Soil Microbiome (560939)
Zoey Werbin1, Colin Averill2, Michael Dietze1 and Jennifer M Bhatnagar1, (1)Boston University, Boston, MA, United States, (2)ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
 
Successful real-time prediction of methane ebullition rates in a eutrophic reservoir using temperature via iterative near-term forecasts (563488)
Ryan McClure1, Quinn Thomas2, Mary E Lofton1, Whitney M Woelmer1, Ashley M Mickens1 and Cayelan Carey1, (1)Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Biological Sciences, Blacksburg, VA, United States, (2)Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Blacksburg, VA, United States
 
Causal relationships in mesoscale teleconnections between land and sea: a study with satellite data (575366)
Takeshi Ise and Yurika Oba, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
 
VARENN: Graphical representation of spatiotemporal data and application to climate studies (577153)
Yurika Oba and Takeshi Ise, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
 
Near-term iterative forecasting of water quality in a reservoir reveals relative forecastability of physical, chemical, and biological dynamics (578292)
Quinn Thomas1, Cayelan Carey2, Mary E Lofton2, Ryan McClure2 and Whitney M Woelmer2, (1)Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Blacksburg, VA, United States, (2)Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Biological Sciences, Blacksburg, VA, United States
 
Spatial and temporal relationship between aboveground biomass and the enhanced vegetation index for a mixed pasture in a Brazilian integrated crop livestock system (586290)
Gleyce K. D. Araujo Figueiredo1, Yane Freitas Silva2, Rafael Vasconcelos Valadares3, Rubens A. C. Lamparelli3 and Eleanor E Campbell4, (1)UNICAMP State University of Campinas, FEAGRI, Campinas, Brazil, (2)UNICAMP State University of Campinas, Agricultural Engineering, Campinas, Brazil, (3)UNICAMP State University of Campinas, Interdisciplinary Energy Planning Center, Campinas, Brazil, (4)Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States
 
Spatiotemporal variation in site-wide Spartina alterniflora belowground biomass may provide an early warning of tidal marsh vulnerability to sea level rise (592433)
Jessica L O'Connell1, Deepak R Mishra1, Merryl Alber2 and Kristin B Byrd3, (1)University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United States, (2)University of Georgia, Marine Sciences, Athens, GA, United States, (3)U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, United States
 
Bringing new life to harmful algal bloom prediction after crossing the valley of death (595188)
Clarissa Anderson, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing System, La Jolla, CA, United States, Raphael Martin Kudela, University of California Santa Cruz, Ocean Sciences, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, Dale H Robinson, NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, Richard P Stumpf, NOAA Natl Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, United States, Yizhen Li, NOAA National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, United States and William W Turner, NASA Headquarters, Washington DC, DC, United States
 
Improving forecasting of biome shifts with data assimilation of paleoecological data (604580)
Ann Raiho, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States, Michael Dietze, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States and Jason S McLachlan, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, United States
 
The Projected Timing of Abrupt Ecological Disruption from Climate Change (608861)
Christopher Trisos, University of Cape Town, African Climate and Development Initiative, Cape Town, South Africa, Cory Merow, University of Connecticut, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Storrs, CT, United States and Alex Pigot, University College London, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, London, United Kingdom
 
Continental-scale Projection of Future Douglas-fir Growth from Tree Rings: Testing the Limits of Space-for-Time Substitution (614313)
Margaret Evans1, Stefan Klesse2, Robert J DeRose3, Flurin Babst2, Leander DL Anderegg4, Jodi N Axelson4, Bryan Black5, Ailene Ettinger6, Hardy Griesbauer7, Christopher H Guiterman8, Grant L. Harley9, Jill E Harvey10, Yueh-Hsin Lo11, Ann M Lynch12, Chirstopher O'Connor13, Christina Restaino14, David Sauchyn15, John Shaw16, Dan J Smith17, Lisa Wood18 and Jose Villanueva Diaz19, (1)Tucson, AZ, United States, (2)WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Birmensdorf, Switzerland, (3)Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States, (4)University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States, (5)University of Arizona, Tucson, United States, (6)Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States, (7)Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development, Prince George, BC, Canada, (8)University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States, (9)University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, United States, (10)220 Hafnarfjordur, Iceland, (11)Universidad Publica de Navarra, Department of Science, Pamplona, Spain, (12)Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO, United States, (13)US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT, United States, (14)University of Davis, Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, Davis, CA, United States, (15)University of Regina, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC), Regina, SK, Canada, (16)US Forest Service, Logan, UT, United States, (17)University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada, (18)University of Northern British Columbia, Ecosystem Science and Management, Prince George, Canada, (19)Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Laboratorio de Dendrocronologia, Gómez Palacio, Mexico
 
A Fast and Easy to use Method to Forecast the Risks of Loss of Ecosystem Stability: The Epsilon Section of Correlation Sums (617604)
Stephan Pietsch, IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, ESM, Laxenburg, Austria and Johannes Elias Bednar, Research Scholar, ESM, Laxenburg, Austria
 
Forecasting future global biodiversity: Predicting current and future global plant distributions, community structure, and ecosystem function (622156)
Brian Joseph Enquist1, Cory Merow2, Lee Hannah3, Bradley Boyle4, Xiao Feng5, Brian S. Maitner6, Erica Newman4, Brian McGill7, Wendy Foden8, Jon C Lovett9, Pablo A. Marquet10, Guy Midgley11, Richard Corlett12, Patrick Roehrdanz13, Rachael V. Gallagher14, Nathan Kraft15, Naia Morueta-Holme16, Danilo M. Neves17, Michiel Pillet4, Brody Sandel18, Josep M. Serra-Diaz19, Irena Simova20, Jens-Christian Svenning21, Cyrille Violle22, Susan Wiser23, Robert K Peet24,25, Nirav Merchant5, Emmanouil Anagnostou26, Efthymios Nikolopoulos26, Laura Duncanson27, Amy E Frazier28, David Barnett29, Mark Schildhauer30, Adam Wilson31, Andrew Rominger32, Jasper Slingsby33 and Roberto Salguero-Gomez34, (1)University of Arizona, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Tucson, AZ, United States, (2)University of Connecticut, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Storrs, CT, United States, (3)Conservation International, Arlington, VA, United States, (4)University of Arizona, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Tucson, United States, (5)University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States, (6)University of Arizona, Tucson, United States, (7)University of Maine, School of Biology and Ecology, Orono, ME, United States, (8)University of Stellenbosch, Department of Botany & Zoology, Stellenbosch, South Africa, (9)University of Leeds, School of Geography, Leeds, United Kingdom, (10)Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Santiago, Chile, (11)Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa, (12)Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Xishuangbanna, China, (13)University of California, Santa Barbara, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (14)Macquarie University, Department of Biological Sciences, North Ryde,, Australia, (15)University of California, Los Angeles, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (16)University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States, (17)Federal University of Minas Gerais, Department of Botany, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, (18)Santa Clara University, Department of Biology, Santa Clara, United States, (19)Harvard University, Harvard Forest, Petersham, MA, United States, (20)Charles University, Department of Ecology, Prague, Czech Republic, (21)Aarhus University, Bioscience, Aarhus C, Denmark, (22)Centre d’Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive, Montpellier, France, (23)Landcare Research, Lincoln, New Zealand, (24)Victoria, BC, Canada, (25)University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, United States, (26)University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States, (27)University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States, (28)Arizona State University, School of Geographical Sciences & Urban Planning, Tempe, AZ, United States, (29)National Ecological Observatory Network, Boulder, United States, (30)National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, Santa Barbara, United States, (31)SUNY Buffalo, Geography, Buffalo, NY, United States, (32)The Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, United States, (33)South African Environmental Observation Network, Cape Town, South Africa, (34)University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
 
Identifying coral refugia from observationally weighted climate model ensembles (630659)
Peter Kalmus1, Emily Lei Kang2, Michelle M Gierach3 and Amy J Braverman1, (1)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)University of Cincinnati Main Campus, Cincinnati, OH, United States, (3)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
 
Sharp Turn Ahead: Modeling the Risk of Sudden Forest Change in the Western Conterminous United States (632056)
Tim Sheehan1, Robert E Kennedy2, Dominique M Bachelet1 and Ken Ferschweiler3, (1)Conservation Biology Institute, Corvallis, OR, United States, (2)Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States, (3)Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States
 
What have we learned from two seasons of forecasting phenology? The USA National Phenology Network’s experience operationalizing Pheno Forecasts (487806)
Theresa M Crimmins, USA National Phenology Network, Tucson, AZ, United States and USA National Phenology Network National Coordinating Office
 
Managing the ocean in real-time: Ecological forecasts for dynamic management (Invited) (491112)
Heather M Welch1, Elliott L. Hazen2, Kylie Scales3, Sara Maxwell4, Dana Briscoe5, Steven J. Bograd6, Heidi Dewar7, Suzanna Kohin7, Elizabeth Becker8, Scott Benson7, Tomo Eguchi7, Larry Crowder and Rebecca L Lewison10, (1)University of California Santa Cruz, Institute of Marine Sciences, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, (2)NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Monterey, CA, United States, (3)University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, Australia, (4)Old Dominion University, Department of Biology, Norfolk, VA, United States, (5)Stanford University, (6)NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Monterey, United States, (7)NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, CA, United States, (8)NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, (9)San Diego State University, Biology, San Diego, CA, United States
 
High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system (Invited) (493170)
Nicole S Lovenduski1, Gordon B Bonan2, Stephen G Yeager3, Keith T Lindsay4 and Danica L. Lombardozzi2, (1)University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)NCAR, Oceanography, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Site characteristics of beaver dams in southwest Ohio (494958)
Teng Keng Vang and Bartosz Grudzinski, Miami University Oxford, Geography, Oxford, OH, United States
 
Structural and parameter uncertainty in centennial-scale simulations of community succession in Upper Midwest temperate forests (495036)
Alexey N Shiklomanov, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States, Ben P Bond-Lamberty, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States, Jeff W Atkins, Virginia Commonwealth University, Biology, Richmond, VA, United States and Christopher Michael Gough, VCU-Biology, Richmond, VA, United States
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