H145
Water and Society: Enhancing and Communicating Hydroclimatic Forecasts for Water Resources Decision-making

Session ID#: 78810

Session Description:
The past decade has seen numerous advancements in hydroclimatic forecasts in terms of accuracy, information context, and spatial and temporal resolution and scope. However, major questions remain: Why are forecasts still not readily utilized in water resources decision making? What are the specific barriers to real-world use of hydroclimatic forecasts? What can be done to increase the uptake of forecast information? This session invites scientists, engineers, operational forecasters, and stakeholders to address these questions from a range of aspects including, but not limited to: 1) improving forecast accuracy and tailoring them to the needs of decision makers; 2) integrating predictive uncertainty with users’ behavioral and institutional settings; 3) improving information delivery technologies; and 4) using forecasts for the operation and planning of water and associated nexus systems.
Index Terms:

1816 Estimation and forecasting [HYDROLOGY]
1833 Hydroclimatology [HYDROLOGY]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES & PUBLIC ISSUES]
6344 System operation and management [POLICY SCIENCES & PUBLIC ISSUES]

Primary Convener:  Paul J Block, University of Wisconsin Madison, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, WI, United States
Conveners:  Ximing Cai, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, United States, Hamid Moradkhani, The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States and David W Watkins Jr, Michigan Technological Univ, Houghton, MI, United States
Primary Liaison:  Paul J Block, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States
 
Season-ahead hydrologic forecasts for end-users: Tailoring optimized sectoral water rights trade to account for heterogeneous risk attitudes (489588)
Justin Daniel Delorit, Air Force Institute of Technology, Bellbrook, OH, United States and Paul J Block, University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, WI, United States
 
Optimal Allocation Model of Water Resources Based on the Prospect Theory (490639)
He Huaxiang1, Aiqi Chen2, Mingwan Yin3, Zhenzhen Ma1, Jinjun You3, Xinmin Xie1, Zhizhang Wang4 and Qiang An3, (1)IWHR Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, CAS, Beijing, China, (2)China Agricultural University, College of Land Science and Technology, Beijing, China, (3)China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China, (4)Information technology department, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China
 
Streamflow Forecasting without Models (496990)
Ganesh Ghimire and Witold F Krajewski, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States
 
Forecast-informed reservoir operations using a Bayesian approach (500163)
Guang Yang, University of Wisconsin Madison, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States and Paul J Block, University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, WI, United States
 
Statistical forecasts of Ethiopia’s Kiremt rainy season for rainfed agricultural planning (503931)
Jonathan Lala1, Sarah Alexander1 and Paul J Block2, (1)University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States, (2)University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, WI, United States
 
A multi-method approach to communication and integration of seasonal climate information in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia (506974)
Sarah Alexander1, Paul J Block2, Dominique Brossard1, Ezana Atsbeha3, Selam Negatu3, Kristen Kirksey3 and Elizabeth Holzer3, (1)University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States, (2)University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, WI, United States, (3)University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, United States
 
Investigation of the Impacts of Drought Severity on Ecosystem Water-Use Efficiency and Drought Recovery across the Contiguous United States (507501)
Behzad Ahmadi1, Ali Ahmadalipour2, Glenn A Tootle3 and Hamid Moradkhani2, (1)University of California Davis, Civil and Environmental Engineer, Davis, CA, United States, (2)The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States, (3)University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States
 
Event-based prediction of flash flood property damages using machine learning (508195)
Atieh Alipour, Ali Ahmadalipour, Peyman Abbaszadeh and Hamid Moradkhani, The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States
 
Communicating Uncertainty in Hydro-meteorological Forecasts: Mission Accomplished? (Invited) (512556)
Maria-Helena Ramos, IRSTEA, Antony Cedex, France and Florian Pappenberger, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
 
Contribution of Meteorological Downscaling to Skill and Precision of Seasonal Hydrological Forecasts: Studies of Notable U.S. Drought Events (517567)
Ryan Zamora, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States, Benjamin Zaitchik, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States, Matthew Rodell, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Augusto Getirana, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States and Kristi R Arsenault, SAIC, Greenbelt, MD, United States
 
On resorting to a meteorological post-processor to improve ensemble hydrological forecasts (Invited) (520184)
Francois Anctil1, Emixi Valdez1 and Maria-Helena Ramos2, (1)Laval University, Civil and Water Engineering, Quebec City, QC, Canada, (2)IRSTEA, Bergamo, Italy
 
Improving Regression-Based Water Supply Forecasts following Snow Droughts in the Western U.S. (525032)
Josh Sturtevant, University of Nevada, Reno, Reno, NV, United States, Michael D Dettinger, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA, United States, Stephanie A McAfee, University of Nevada Reno, Reno, NV, United States, Seshadri Rajagopal, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, United States and Adrian Adam Harpold, University of Nevada Reno, Natural Resources and Environmental Science, Reno, NV, United States
 
Isolating the Role of End-User Behavior in the Assessment of Seasonal Forecast Value (532839)
Matteo Giuliani1, Louise Crochemore2, Ilias Pechlivanidis3 and Andrea Castelletti1, (1)Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy, (2)Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden, (3)Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Hydrology Research Unit, Norrköping, Sweden
 
Increasing community engagement using forecasts of streamflow, water temperature, and aquatic species habitat derived from citizen science observations (548423)
Darren L Ficklin, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, United States, Pedro M. Avellaneda, Indiana University - Bloomington, Bloomington, United States, Christopher Lowry, University at Buffalo, Geology, Buffalo, NY, United States, Jason Knouft, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO, United States and Damon Hall, Assistant Professor, Department of Bioengineering, Columbia, MO, United States
 
Runoff Distribution in the Colorado Basin (570322)
Lauren Elizabeth Castanon, California State University Monterey Bay, Seaside, CA, United States and Michelle Stokes, NOAA, Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, Salt Lake City, UT, United States
 
Challenges in reservoir inflow forecasts using ensemble-based neural network model and large-scale climate signals (575254)
Taereem Kim, Yonsei University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), Hanbeen Kim, Yonsei University, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), Younghun Jung, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South) and Jun-Haeng Heo, Yonsei University, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)
 
Neuro-Evolutionary Policy Search for Identifying Key Inputs to Operate Multi-objective Reservoirs Exhibiting Variable Dynamics (583945)
Marta Zaniolo1, Matteo Giuliani1, Paul J Block2 and Andrea Castelletti1, (1)Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy, (2)University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, WI, United States
 
Inferring the forecast-use signatures of 300 dams across Western United States (600772)
Sean William Donald Turner1, Nathalie Voisin2, Wenwei Xu2 and Kenji Doering3, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States, (2)PNNL, Seattle, WA, United States, (3)Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States
 
Leveraging satellite products for enhanced season-ahead water quality prediction (609555)
Paul J Block, University of Wisconsin Madison, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, WI, United States and Bryan O'Reilly, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, United States
 
Modeling the groundwater-vadose zone interactions for water-food security assessment in different irrigation and water management scenarios in Ethiopia (613770)
Fahad Khan Khadim1, Zoi Dokou2, Meijian Yang3, Rehenuma Lazin1, Amvrossios C Bagtzoglou1, Guiling Wang4 and Emmanouil N Anagnostou1, (1)University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States, (2)California State University Sacramento, Civil Engineering, Sacramento, CA, United States, (3)University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Groton, CT, United States, (4)University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering & Center for Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States
 
Seasonal forecasting in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia for ensuring food and water security (615794)
Zoi Dokou1, Sarah Alexander2, Amvrossios C Bagtzoglou3, Paul J Block4, Muhammad Rezaul Haider3, Elizabeth Holzer5, Fahad Khan Khadim3, Marika Koukoula3, Jonathan Lala6, Rehenuma Lazin7, Semu Moges8, Efthymios Nikolopoulos9, Malaquias Peña10, Xinyi Shen3, Guiling Wang11, Shu WU2, Meijian Yang7 and Emmanouil N Anagnostou3, (1)California State University Sacramento, Civil Engineering, Sacramento, CA, United States, (2)University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States, (3)University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States, (4)University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, WI, United States, (5)University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, United States, (6)University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States, (7)University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Groton, CT, United States, (8)University of Connecticut, Storrs, United States, (9)Florida Institute of Technology, Mechanical and Civil Engineering, Melbourne, FL, United States, (10)Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States, (11)University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering & Center for Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States
 
The Kitchen Sink: Using ground measurements, remote sensing, hydrologic models and expert intuition to inform Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) in high Sierra Reservoirs. (618783)
Chris B Graham, San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, San Francisco, CA, United States, Reggie D Walters, Boise State University, Boise, ID, United States and Harrison Forrester, Yosemite National Park, Division of Resources Management and Science, El Portal, CA, United States
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